The model points to a tight, low-scoring affair, with Levski Sofia favored to win away. The expected total is 1.8 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 0-1, a 20.7% chance. Home side Dunav Ruse, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages zero goals scored and concedes two. Levski Sofia, on the road against a weaker team, averages 1.83 goals scored and 0.83 conceded. The probabilities of the match result are 14% for a home win, 32% for a draw, and 54% for an away win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (100%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.8%), Under 5.5 (99.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (98.6%), Away +2 handicap (96.9%), Under 4.5 (96.7%), and Away under 3.5 goals (96.1%). With Levski’s recent win and Dunav’s recent defeat, the odds lean heavily toward a narrow Levski victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dunav Ruse win
12.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Levski Sofia win
58.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dunav Ruse
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.90
1.40
0.60
1.27
1.20
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.29
0.86
1.30
0.70
1.27
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.83
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Levski Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Levski Sofia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
0.77
2.00
0.44
1.50
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.92
0.80
0.20
1.14
1.43
vs Weaker (18)
2.28
0.67
2.55
0.55
1.86
0.86
Clean sheet %
47% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunav Ruse) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
61.8%
Under 1.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
33.7%
Under 2.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
15.2%
Under 3.5
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
34.4%
No
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
18.1%
0-2
14.2%
0-0
14.0%
1-1
11.9%
1-2
8.0%
0-3
7.0%
1-0
6.2%
1-3
4.0%
Dunav Ruse goals ↓
Levski Sofia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
18%
14%
7.0%
2.6%
1
6.2%
12%
8.0%
4.0%
1.5%
2
2.0%
3.0%
2.3%
1.1%
0.4%
3
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
4
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dunav Ruse goals (down), columns = Levski Sofia goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Levski Sofia
3.00
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.50
Ludogorets
2.43
Arda Kardzhali
2.29
Spartak Varna
1.17
Septemvri Sofia
1.14
Botev Plovdiv
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Dunav Ruse
0.57
Cherno More Varna
0.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.50
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Dunav Ruse is 2.43 points worse than Levski Sofia in terms of average points per game (0.57 vs 3.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levski Sofia
2.86
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.17
Ludogorets
1.71
Arda Kardzhali
1.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.17
Spartak Varna
1.17
Botev Plovdiv
1.14
Cherno More Varna
1.14
Dunav Ruse
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Septemvri Sofia
0.71
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Dunav Ruse is 1.86 goals worse than Levski Sofia in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arda Kardzhali
0.57
Levski Sofia
0.57
CSKA Sofia
0.67
Ludogorets
0.71
CSKA 1948
0.83
Slavia Sofia
0.86
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.43
Septemvri Sofia
1.43
Botev Plovdiv
1.71
Spartak Varna
1.83
Lokomotiv Sofia
2.00
Dunav Ruse
2.00
Botev Vratsa
2.14
Cherno More Varna
2.29
Dunav Ruse is 1.43 goals worse than Levski Sofia in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 0.57).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Levski Sofia
63%
Slavia Sofia
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dunav Ruse
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 2.0 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Levski Sofia
For 5.9 · Against 3.9 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.4 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 13.2 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dunav Ruse
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.2
0.2
0.2
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
-
-
-
0.2
0.3
0.2
-
-
-
vs Weaker (11)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
4%
4%
4%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
96%
96%
96%
-
-
-
This opponent (Levski Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Levski Sofia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
7.8
9.8
1.8
1.5
2.1
23.6
20.3
26.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
9.0
6.0
10.5
1.8
1.2
2.4
28.3
29.0
28.0
vs Weaker (32)
8.9
8.3
9.5
1.8
1.6
1.9
21.5
17.9
25.1
% over line
43%
33%
50%
20%
17%
23%
70%
44%
91%
% under line
57%
67%
50%
80%
83%
77%
30%
56%
9%
This opponent (Dunav Ruse) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Sofia
10.6
Botev Plovdiv
10.1
Spartak Varna
10.0
CSKA Sofia
9.6
Levski Sofia
9.5
CSKA 1948
9.4
Ludogorets
9.4
Lokomotiv Sofia
9.4
Botev Vratsa
9.4
Septemvri Sofia
9.1
Cherno More Varna
9.0
Arda Kardzhali
8.7
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arda Kardzhali
5.2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5.0
Septemvri Sofia
5.0
Botev Vratsa
4.8
Spartak Varna
4.8
CSKA Sofia
4.8
Ludogorets
4.8
Cherno More Varna
4.7
Slavia Sofia
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.6
Botev Plovdiv
4.5
Dunav Ruse
4.5
CSKA 1948
4.2
Lokomotiv Sofia
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cherno More Varna
25.1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25.0
Botev Vratsa
24.7
Levski Sofia
24.5
Arda Kardzhali
24.4
Slavia Sofia
23.9
Lokomotiv Sofia
23.9
Septemvri Sofia
22.8
CSKA 1948
22.7
Spartak Varna
22.7
CSKA Sofia
22.6
Botev Plovdiv
22.4
Ludogorets
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
45.8%
Under 9.5
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
68.2%
Under 3.5
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
66.0%
Under 21.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dunav Ruse or Draw
41.2%
Avg Implied -
13%
28%
59%
covers Dunav Ruse + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dunav Ruse or Levski Sofia
71.7%
Avg Implied -
13%
28%
59%
covers Dunav Ruse + Levski Sofia
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Levski Sofia
87.1%
Avg Implied -
13%
28%
59%
covers Draw + Levski Sofia
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dunav Ruse over/under 0.5
Over
43.1%
Under
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunav Ruse over/under 1.5
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunav Ruse over/under 2.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunav Ruse over/under 3.5
Over
0.3%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levski Sofia over/under 0.5
Over
77.3%
Under
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levski Sofia over/under 1.5
Over
43.7%
Under
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levski Sofia over/under 2.5
Over
18.7%
Under
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levski Sofia over/under 3.5
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dunav Ruse, so a minus line means Dunav Ruse give that many goals of a start and Levski Sofia receive them. At -1, Dunav Ruse must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dunav Ruse win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dunav Ruse)
Dunav Ruse -2
0.5%
Draw -2
2.7%
Levski Sofia +2
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dunav Ruse)
Dunav Ruse -1
3.2%
Draw -1
9.7%
Levski Sofia +1
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dunav Ruse)
Dunav Ruse +1
41.2%
Draw +1
27.3%
Levski Sofia -1
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dunav Ruse)
Dunav Ruse +2
68.5%
Draw +2
18.6%
Levski Sofia -2
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dunav Ruse
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.30
0.60
0.20
0.53
0.40
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.43
0.24
0.40
0.20
0.45
0.27
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.17
1.25
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Levski Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Levski Sofia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.23
0.56
0.06
0.43
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.42
0.40
0.00
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (18)
0.44
0.11
0.64
0.09
0.14
0.14
Clean sheet %
83% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunav Ruse) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dunav Ruse over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunav Ruse over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunav Ruse over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levski Sofia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levski Sofia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levski Sofia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dunav Ruse
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.80
0.40
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.62
0.90
0.50
0.82
0.73
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.33
0.75
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Levski Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Levski Sofia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.53
1.44
0.38
1.07
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.50
0.40
0.20
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (18)
1.83
0.56
1.91
0.45
1.71
0.71
Clean sheet %
53% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunav Ruse) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dunav Ruse over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunav Ruse over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunav Ruse over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levski Sofia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levski Sofia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levski Sofia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Levski Sofia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Reinaldo33%
Álex Centelles0%
Armstrong Oko-Flex0%
Kristian Dimitrov0%
Svetoslav Vutsov0%
Mazire Soula0%
Nikola Serafimov0%
Everton Bala0%
El Mehdi Moubarik0%
Serginho0%
Aldair0%
Asen Ivanov Mitkov0%
Juan Perea0%
Maicon0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nikola Serafimov33%
Everton Bala33%
Aldair33%
Juan Perea33%
Álex Centelles0%
Armstrong Oko-Flex0%
Reinaldo0%
Kristian Dimitrov0%
Svetoslav Vutsov0%
Mazire Soula0%
El Mehdi Moubarik0%
Serginho0%
Asen Ivanov Mitkov0%
Maicon0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Everton Bala33%
Álex Centelles0%
Armstrong Oko-Flex0%
Reinaldo0%
Kristian Dimitrov0%
Svetoslav Vutsov0%
Mazire Soula0%
Nikola Serafimov0%
El Mehdi Moubarik0%
Serginho0%
Aldair0%
Asen Ivanov Mitkov0%
Juan Perea0%
Maicon0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Reinaldo33%
Álex Centelles0%
Armstrong Oko-Flex0%
Kristian Dimitrov0%
Svetoslav Vutsov0%
Mazire Soula0%
Nikola Serafimov0%
Everton Bala0%
El Mehdi Moubarik0%
Serginho0%
Aldair0%
Asen Ivanov Mitkov0%
Juan Perea0%
Maicon0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (29)
€46m
LS (27)
€38m
CS (25)
€26m
C1 (30)
€18m
BP (29)
€11m
AK (20)
€10m
LP (23)
€9m
LS (25)
€8m
SS (25)
€7m
CMV (22)
€6m
SV (22)
€6m
BV (23)
€6m
DR (22)
€4m
SS (20)
€3m
Dunav Ruse's squad is €34m less valuable than Levski Sofia's (€4m vs €38m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (12)
€27m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
C1 (14)
€9m
BP (12)
€5m
AK (7)
€3m
LS (11)
€3m
CMV (8)
€3m
LP (8)
€3m
SS (11)
€2m
BV (8)
€2m
SV (7)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
SS (8)
€1m
Dunav Ruse's attack is €10m less valuable than Levski Sofia's (€1m vs €11m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (5)
€8m
CS (6)
€6m
LUD (4)
€6m
AK (3)
€3m
LS (6)
€2m
C1 (4)
€2m
BP (6)
€2m
LP (5)
€2m
SS (4)
€2m
BV (5)
€1m
CMV (5)
€1m
DR (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
Dunav Ruse's midfield is €7m less valuable than Levski Sofia's (€1m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (12)
€19m
LUD (13)
€13m
CS (10)
€10m
C1 (12)
€7m
BP (11)
€4m
LP (10)
€4m
AK (10)
€3m
SS (10)
€3m
LS (8)
€3m
SV (11)
€3m
CMV (9)
€2m
BV (10)
€2m
DR (11)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
Dunav Ruse's defence is €17m less valuable than Levski Sofia's (€2m vs €19m).
Bulgaria: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →