Dunav Ruse will struggle to find the net after a 1-3 loss to Cherno More Varna, while Lokomotiv Sofia return from a 1-3 defeat to Arda Kardzhali. The model therefore favours an away win, giving Lokomotiv a 40% chance, a 35% chance of a draw and a 25% chance of a home win. The expected total is 1.8 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 17.4% probability. In recent home form Dunav has averaged 1.0 goal scored and 0.7 conceded against similar opponents, whereas Lokomotiv on the road averages 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 at 99.9%, Under 6.5 at 99.7% with a 4% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.2%, Home under 3.5 goals at 99.2% with a 4% edge, Under 5.5 at 98.9% with a 6% edge, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.8% with a 7% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.4%, and Under 4.5 at 96.2% with an 11% edge.
Results analysis
The match ended 2-2, a draw that left the pre-match favourite, an away win at 39%, disappointed. The model’s call was wrong. The game was a tight affair, with both sides coming off recent draws and each team’s last five showing a similar pattern of results. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 at 99.9%, Under 6.5 at 99.7%, Home under 3.5 goals at 99.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.0%, Under 5.5 at 98.9%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.4%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.9%, and Under 4.5 at 96.2%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dunav Ruse win✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied 27.6% · @ 3.35
Edge
-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.59
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.46
Dafabet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.45
Draw✓ Hit
35.0%
Avg Implied 28.2% · @ 3.28
Edge
+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Unibet
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Dafabet
3.35
Lokomotiv Sofia win✗ Miss
38.7%
Avg Implied 44.3% · @ 2.09
Edge
-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.13
William Hil
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
Superbet
2.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dunav Ruse
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.83
1.36
0.50
1.38
1.12
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.25
0.80
1.22
0.56
1.27
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
2.00
0.43
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv Sofia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.57
1.53
1.33
1.53
1.80
vs Stronger (6)
1.33
2.83
1.00
2.67
1.67
3.00
vs Similar (24)
1.58
1.25
1.67
1.00
1.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunav Ruse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
55.7%
@ 1.28-17.0%
Under 1.5
44.3%
@ 3.41+17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Under
Unibet
3.60
Pinnacle
3.56
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
BetVictor
3.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
27.6%
@ 1.90-21.5%
Under 2.5
72.4%
@ 1.84+21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.00
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.95
10Bet
1.93
Betano
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Unibet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Betano
1.85
Betfair
1.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
11.3%
@ 3.21-17.7%
Under 3.5
88.7%
@ 1.31+17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Pinnacle
3.32
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Under
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
36.6%
@ 1.72-17.2%
No
63.4%
@ 2.00+17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Betano
1.72
No
Unibet
2.06
Betfair
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Betano
2.02
BetVictor
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
17.5%@ 8.94+12.6%
0-1
15.2%@ 6.94+9.0%
1-1
14.5%@ 5.92+7.2%
1-0
11.6%@ 9.09+6.8%
0-2
8.5%@ 9.20+3.8%
1-2
6.8%@ 7.86+1.2%
2-1
5.3%@ 10.53+1.1%
2-0
5.1%@ 15.61+2.3%
Dunav Ruse goals ↓
Lokomotiv Sofia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
17%
15%
8.5%
2.9%
0.7%
1
12%
15%
6.8%
2.3%
0.6%
2
5.1%
5.3%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
3
1.4%
1.4%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
4
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dunav Ruse goals (down), columns = Lokomotiv Sofia goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Levski Sofia
3.00
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.50
Ludogorets
2.43
Arda Kardzhali
2.29
Spartak Varna
1.17
Septemvri Sofia
1.14
Botev Plovdiv
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Dunav Ruse
0.57
Cherno More Varna
0.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.50
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Dunav Ruse is 0.07 points better than Lokomotiv Sofia in terms of average points per game (0.57 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levski Sofia
2.86
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.17
Ludogorets
1.71
Arda Kardzhali
1.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.17
Spartak Varna
1.17
Botev Plovdiv
1.14
Cherno More Varna
1.14
Dunav Ruse
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Septemvri Sofia
0.71
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Dunav Ruse is 0.17 goals worse than Lokomotiv Sofia in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arda Kardzhali
0.57
Levski Sofia
0.57
CSKA Sofia
0.67
Ludogorets
0.71
CSKA 1948
0.83
Slavia Sofia
0.86
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.43
Septemvri Sofia
1.43
Botev Plovdiv
1.71
Spartak Varna
1.83
Lokomotiv Sofia
2.00
Dunav Ruse
2.00
Botev Vratsa
2.14
Cherno More Varna
2.29
Dunav Ruse and Lokomotiv Sofia are level in goals conceded per game (both 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Levski Sofia
63%
Slavia Sofia
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dunav Ruse
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 2.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Lokomotiv Sofia
For 5.1 · Against 3.4 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 9.0 · Total 20.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dunav Ruse
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.1
0.0
0.2
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (33)
-
-
-
0.1
0.0
0.2
-
-
-
vs Weaker (14)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
2%
0%
4%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
98%
100%
96%
-
-
-
This opponent (Lokomotiv Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv Sofia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.1
9.1
2.3
2.0
2.7
22.7
21.5
23.9
vs Stronger (12)
6.5
8.0
6.0
0.8
0.1
2.0
22.8
26.0
21.7
vs Similar (38)
9.5
9.2
9.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
22.7
21.2
24.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
36%
21%
50%
30%
23%
38%
54%
43%
64%
% under line
64%
79%
50%
70%
77%
62%
46%
57%
36%
This opponent (Dunav Ruse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Sofia
10.6
Botev Plovdiv
10.1
Spartak Varna
10.0
Levski Sofia
9.6
CSKA Sofia
9.6
Botev Vratsa
9.5
CSKA 1948
9.4
Ludogorets
9.4
Lokomotiv Sofia
9.3
Septemvri Sofia
9.1
Cherno More Varna
9.0
Arda Kardzhali
8.8
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arda Kardzhali
5.2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5.0
Septemvri Sofia
5.0
Botev Vratsa
4.9
Spartak Varna
4.8
CSKA Sofia
4.8
Ludogorets
4.8
Slavia Sofia
4.7
Cherno More Varna
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.6
Botev Plovdiv
4.5
CSKA 1948
4.2
Lokomotiv Sofia
4.1
Dunav Ruse
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cherno More Varna
25.1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25.0
Levski Sofia
24.7
Botev Vratsa
24.6
Arda Kardzhali
24.2
Slavia Sofia
23.8
Lokomotiv Sofia
23.8
Septemvri Sofia
22.8
CSKA 1948
22.7
Spartak Varna
22.7
CSKA Sofia
22.6
Botev Plovdiv
22.4
Ludogorets
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.4%
@ 2.15+3.3%
Under 9.5
53.6%
@ 1.62-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.18
1xBet
2.18
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.13
Pinnacle
2.13
Under
Pinnacle
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
64.7%
@ 1.70+11.2%
Under 3.5
35.3%
@ 1.96-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Under
Superbet
1.97
Betano
1.95
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
63.2%
Under 21.5
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dunav Ruse or Draw✓ Hit
61.3%
Avg Implied 55.3% · @ 1.67
Edge
+6.0%
26%
35%
39%
covers Dunav Ruse + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.78
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
William Hil
1.67
Dunav Ruse or Lokomotiv Sofia✗ Miss
65.0%
Avg Implied 72.4% · @ 1.28
Edge
-7.3%
26%
35%
39%
covers Dunav Ruse + Lokomotiv Sofia
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Draw or Lokomotiv Sofia✓ Hit
73.7%
Avg Implied 72.3% · @ 1.28
Edge
+1.3%
26%
35%
39%
covers Draw + Lokomotiv Sofia
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dunav Ruse over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
55.0%
@ 1.38-12.1%
Under
45.0%
@ 2.80+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
2.98
Unibet
2.95
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.80
BetVictor
2.80
Dunav Ruse over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
19.0%
@ 2.90-13.0%
Under
81.0%
@ 1.36+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.00
Marathonbet
2.94
1xBet
2.89
Betfair
2.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.39
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.38
1xBet
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Dunav Ruse over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 7.45-7.8%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.06+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.40
1xBet
7.30
Superbet
6.90
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Dunav Ruse over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 18.88-4.2%
Under
99.1%
@ 1.01+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
64.2%
@ 1.21-12.2%
Under
35.8%
@ 3.90+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Under
Pinnacle
4.22
1xBet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
27.4%
@ 2.08-17.4%
Under
72.6%
@ 1.68+17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
Bet365
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
Under
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.5%
@ 4.35-12.7%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.17+12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Under
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 10.17-7.3%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.05+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
9.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dunav Ruse, so a minus line means Dunav Ruse give that many goals of a start and Lokomotiv Sofia receive them. At -1, Dunav Ruse must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dunav Ruse win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dunav Ruse)Actual: Lokomotiv Sofia
Dunav Ruse -2
2.0%
@ 21.00-2.4%
Draw -2
6.7%
@ 11.00-1.8%
Lokomotiv Sofia +2
91.3%
@ 1.07+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
21.00
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Away
Bet365
1.07
Handicap -1 (Dunav Ruse)Actual: Lokomotiv Sofia
Dunav Ruse -1
8.7%
@ 7.10-3.9%
Draw -1
17.6%
@ 4.97-0.4%
Lokomotiv Sofia +1
73.7%
@ 1.29+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.30
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
6.10
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.15
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.50
Away
Unibet
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Handicap +1 (Dunav Ruse)Actual: Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse +1
61.3%
@ 1.68+8.2%
Draw +1
23.0%
@ 3.75-0.8%
Lokomotiv Sofia -1
15.7%
@ 3.87-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.68
Betfair
1.67
Unibet
1.63
Draw
Marathonbet
3.84
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.65
Away
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Marathonbet
3.76
Bet365
3.75
Handicap +2 (Dunav Ruse)Actual: Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse +2
84.3%
@ 1.20+9.7%
Draw +2
11.1%
@ 6.03-3.8%
Lokomotiv Sofia -2
4.6%
@ 8.45-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Betfair
1.17
Draw
Marathonbet
6.10
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Away
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
8.50
Unibet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.80
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dunav Ruse
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.30
0.57
0.21
0.62
0.38
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.25
0.33
0.22
0.45
0.27
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.14
1.25
0.00
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv Sofia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.53
0.47
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.00
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.67
0.58
0.58
0.58
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunav Ruse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.9%
@ 1.38+2.8%
Under 0.5
30.1%
@ 2.83-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.40
BetVictor
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Under
Pinnacle
3.02
Betfair
3.00
William Hil
2.90
10Bet
2.88
Superbet
2.82
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.5%
@ 2.72+0.5%
Under 1.5
65.5%
@ 1.40-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.91
Betano
2.87
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.75
William Hil
2.75
Under
10Bet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
BetVictor
1.41
Superbet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.6%
@ 6.94+0.2%
Under 2.5
86.4%
@ 1.07-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
William Hil
7.00
Marathonbet
6.60
Superbet
6.60
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.08
William Hil
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dunav Ruse over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
37.6%
@ 2.31-2.6%
Under
62.4%
@ 1.55+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.44
Betano
2.40
Marathonbet
2.33
Superbet
2.32
1xBet
2.25
Under
Unibet
1.60
1xBet
1.57
Superbet
1.54
Pinnacle
1.54
Betano
1.53
Dunav Ruse over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.6%
@ 8.07-2.9%
Under
91.4%
@ 1.05+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.70
1xBet
8.00
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
Dunav Ruse over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
55.5%
@ 1.88+6.3%
Under
44.5%
@ 1.82-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.92
Superbet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
Unibet
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.87
1xBet
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Unibet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.80
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
20.4%
@ 5.68+4.1%
Under
79.6%
@ 1.10-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.75
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.3%
@ 11.25-1.0%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.02+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dunav Ruse
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
0.79
0.29
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.55
0.89
0.33
0.82
0.73
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.29
0.75
0.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
63% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv Sofia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.90
1.00
0.87
0.87
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
2.17
0.67
2.67
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (24)
1.00
0.58
1.08
0.42
0.92
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunav Ruse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.6%
@ 1.23+3.5%
Under 0.5
21.4%
@ 3.73-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.21
Under
Betano
3.90
1xBet
3.78
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.68
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
48.5%
@ 2.11+4.5%
Under 1.5
51.5%
@ 1.66-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.20
10Bet
2.15
William Hil
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.11
Under
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.69
Unibet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.67
Superbet
1.65
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
21.8%
@ 4.50+1.2%
Under 2.5
78.2%
@ 1.17-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
4.60
Marathonbet
4.45
Superbet
4.45
1xBet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.15
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dunav Ruse over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
43.0%
@ 1.94-4.7%
Under
57.0%
@ 1.77+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.95
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.93
Under
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.74
Dunav Ruse over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.3%
@ 5.80-5.7%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.10+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
5.80
Betano
5.40
Under
Betano
1.13
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Dunav Ruse over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 11.50-6.5%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.02+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
64.0%
@ 1.64+7.5%
Under
36.0%
@ 2.13-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.69
Superbet
1.65
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Under
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.17
Superbet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.02
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
22.1%
@ 3.93-1.4%
Under
77.9%
@ 1.21+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
3.90
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.8%
@ 8.75-4.9%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.05+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.7%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
98.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
-
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.4%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.9%
1.05
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.04
-
-
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
96.2%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Pinnacle
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+11.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
95.3%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.05
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.2%
1.05
Betano
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
92.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.5%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
Betfair
1.17
+12.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.4%
1.05
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
91.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.7%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
-
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
88.7%
1.31
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Unibet
1.32
+17.7%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.4%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.08
William Hil
1.08
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
84.3%
1.20
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Betfair
1.17
-
+9.7%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.9%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+13.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
81.0%
1.36
Pinnacle
1.39
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.38
1xBet
1.37
Superbet
1.37
+13.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
79.6%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
-
-
-4.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.21
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.2%
1.17
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.15
-1.2%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.9%
1.21
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
-
-
+1.4%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
76.3%
1.23
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.21
Unibet
1.21
1xBet
1.14
-
+0.9%
-
Draw or Away
73.7%
1.28
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
73.7%
1.29
Unibet
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
72.6%
1.68
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.70
Superbet
1.68
+17.4%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lokomotiv Sofia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ante Aralitsa43%
Messie Biatoumoussoka33%
Octávio25%
Caue Caruzo Alves25%
Spas Delev23%
Dominik Yankov22%
Ryan Bidounga22%
Adil Taoui20%
Erol Dost19%
Bozhidar Katsarov12%
Patrik-Gabriel Galchev11%
Krasimir Stanoev10%
Simeon Slavchev0%
Donaldo Açka0%
Reyan Daskalov0%
Georgi Minchev0%
Mitko Mitkov0%
Aleksandar Lyubenov0%
Krasimir Miloshev0%
Dzhuneyt Ali0%
Angel Lyaskov0%
Jordon Ibe0%
Martin Velichkov0%
Diego Raposo0%
Nikola Neychev0%
Luann0%
Sadio Dembélé0%
Kristian Chachev0%
Ivan Lagundžić0%
Gerov Emil0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Reyan Daskalov40%
Adil Taoui40%
Ryan Bidounga33%
Ivan Lagundžić33%
Bozhidar Katsarov29%
Donaldo Açka25%
Mitko Mitkov25%
Kristian Chachev25%
Dominik Yankov22%
Ante Aralitsa21%
Sadio Dembélé21%
Jordon Ibe17%
Angel Lyaskov16%
Krasimir Stanoev15%
Caue Caruzo Alves15%
Patrik-Gabriel Galchev11%
Nikola Neychev10%
Erol Dost10%
Dzhuneyt Ali8%
Martin Velichkov6%
Luann6%
Spas Delev5%
Simeon Slavchev0%
Georgi Minchev0%
Aleksandar Lyubenov0%
Krasimir Miloshev0%
Octávio0%
Diego Raposo0%
Messie Biatoumoussoka0%
Gerov Emil0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Spas Delev23%
Krasimir Stanoev15%
Aleksandar Lyubenov14%
Krasimir Miloshev14%
Ante Aralitsa14%
Dominik Yankov11%
Patrik-Gabriel Galchev11%
Caue Caruzo Alves10%
Erol Dost10%
Dzhuneyt Ali8%
Ryan Bidounga6%
Simeon Slavchev0%
Donaldo Açka0%
Reyan Daskalov0%
Bozhidar Katsarov0%
Georgi Minchev0%
Mitko Mitkov0%
Angel Lyaskov0%
Jordon Ibe0%
Adil Taoui0%
Octávio0%
Martin Velichkov0%
Diego Raposo0%
Messie Biatoumoussoka0%
Nikola Neychev0%
Luann0%
Sadio Dembélé0%
Kristian Chachev0%
Ivan Lagundžić0%
Gerov Emil0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Spas Delev41%
Ante Aralitsa29%
Caue Caruzo Alves15%
Krasimir Stanoev10%
Ryan Bidounga6%
Dominik Yankov0%
Simeon Slavchev0%
Donaldo Açka0%
Reyan Daskalov0%
Bozhidar Katsarov0%
Georgi Minchev0%
Mitko Mitkov0%
Aleksandar Lyubenov0%
Krasimir Miloshev0%
Dzhuneyt Ali0%
Angel Lyaskov0%
Jordon Ibe0%
Adil Taoui0%
Octávio0%
Erol Dost0%
Martin Velichkov0%
Diego Raposo0%
Messie Biatoumoussoka0%
Patrik-Gabriel Galchev0%
Nikola Neychev0%
Luann0%
Sadio Dembélé0%
Kristian Chachev0%
Ivan Lagundžić0%
Gerov Emil0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (29)
€46m
LS (27)
€38m
CS (25)
€26m
C1 (30)
€18m
BP (29)
€11m
AK (20)
€10m
LP (23)
€9m
LS (25)
€8m
SS (25)
€7m
CMV (22)
€6m
SV (22)
€6m
BV (23)
€6m
DR (22)
€4m
SS (20)
€3m
Dunav Ruse's squad is €4m less valuable than Lokomotiv Sofia's (€4m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (12)
€27m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
C1 (14)
€9m
BP (12)
€5m
AK (7)
€3m
LS (11)
€3m
CMV (8)
€3m
LP (8)
€3m
SS (11)
€2m
BV (8)
€2m
SV (7)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
SS (8)
€1m
Dunav Ruse's attack is €2m less valuable than Lokomotiv Sofia's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (5)
€8m
CS (6)
€6m
LUD (4)
€6m
AK (3)
€3m
LS (6)
€2m
C1 (4)
€2m
BP (6)
€2m
LP (5)
€2m
SS (4)
€2m
BV (5)
€1m
CMV (5)
€1m
DR (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
Dunav Ruse's midfield is €1m less valuable than Lokomotiv Sofia's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (12)
€19m
LUD (13)
€13m
CS (10)
€10m
C1 (12)
€7m
BP (11)
€4m
LP (10)
€4m
AK (10)
€3m
SS (10)
€3m
LS (8)
€3m
SV (11)
€3m
CMV (9)
€2m
BV (10)
€2m
DR (11)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
Dunav Ruse's defence is €1m less valuable than Lokomotiv Sofia's (€2m vs €3m).
Bulgaria: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Levski Sofia
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
CSKA 1948
Septemvri Sofia
Slavia Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
Spartak Varna
Cherno More Varna
Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Plovdiv