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Dundalk vs Finn Harps Result & Analysis

Date: 10/10/2025
Time: 18:45
Final 3-0
Dundalk
Dundalk
Vs
66%
20%
14%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Finn Harps
Finn Harps
Ireland: First Division
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Dundalk win✓ Hit
66.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps win✗ Miss
13.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

DundalkDundalk

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-710W41W61W70W33D00D31W23L32W11DA·UCD01/08H·LON04/08H·ATH08/08A·TRE22/08H·KER29/08A·WEX05/09H·BRA12/09A·LON20/09H·UCD26/09A·ATH03/10
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.130.932.401.071.870.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)2.171.002.671.171.670.83
vs Weaker (18)2.110.892.221.002.000.78
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D12L22D10W21W10W11D23L13L14LH·COB25/07A·WEX01/08H·BRA04/08A·KER08/08H·ATH22/08H·TRE29/08A·LON05/09A·BRA19/09H·WEX22/09A·COB26/09
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.431.471.331.001.53
vs Stronger (13)0.921.310.831.171.001.43
vs Similar (17)1.471.531.891.441.001.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.6%
Under 1.5
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.1%
Under 2.5
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.1%
Under 3.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.1%
No
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.7%
2-0
9.7%
1-1
9.1%
3-1
7.6%
3-0 ✓
7.5%
1-0
7.4%
2-2
4.9%
4-1
4.4%
Dundalk goals ↓
Finn Harps goals →
01234
04.3%2.7%1.8%0.6%0.1%
17.4%9.1%4.2%1.4%0.3%
29.7%9.7%4.9%1.6%0.4%
37.5%7.6%3.8%1.3%0.3%
44.4%4.4%2.2%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dundalk goals (down), columns = Finn Harps goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dundalk
2.19
Cobh Ramblers
1.89
Bray Wanderers
1.82
UCD
1.51
Treaty United
1.31
Wexford
1.26
Longford Town
1.25
Finn Harps
1.00
Kerry
1.00
Athlone Town
0.56
Dundalk is 1.19 points better than Finn Harps in terms of average points per game (2.19 vs 1.00).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dundalk
2.06
Cobh Ramblers
1.87
Bray Wanderers
1.74
Treaty United
1.33
UCD
1.32
Wexford
1.20
Longford Town
1.19
Finn Harps
1.17
Kerry
1.11
Athlone Town
0.81
Dundalk is 0.89 goals better than Finn Harps in terms of goals scored per game (2.06 vs 1.17).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Dundalk
0.86
Cobh Ramblers
1.03
UCD
1.19
Treaty United
1.28
Wexford
1.37
Bray Wanderers
1.41
Finn Harps
1.58
Kerry
1.61
Longford Town
1.64
Athlone Town
1.92
Dundalk is 0.72 goals better than Finn Harps in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.58).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DundalkDundalk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W20W21W40W12L00D20W11D11D10WA·UCD01/08H·LON04/08H·ATH08/08A·TRE22/08H·KER29/08A·WEX05/09H·BRA12/09A·LON20/09H·UCD26/09A·ATH03/10
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.371.000.470.930.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.830.501.170.500.500.50
vs Weaker (18)1.060.280.890.441.220.11
Clean sheet %70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L10W10W00D10W10W00D21W00D13LH·COB25/07A·WEX01/08H·BRA04/08A·KER08/08H·ATH22/08H·TRE29/08A·LON05/09A·BRA19/09H·WEX22/09A·COB26/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.730.600.670.400.80
vs Stronger (13)0.150.540.000.500.290.57
vs Similar (17)0.760.881.000.780.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dundalk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DundalkDundalk

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D21W40W30W21W00D11D12L21W01LA·UCD01/08H·LON04/08H·ATH08/08A·TRE22/08H·KER29/08A·WEX05/09H·BRA12/09A·LON20/09H·UCD26/09A·ATH03/10
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.571.400.600.930.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.330.501.500.671.170.33
vs Weaker (18)1.060.611.330.560.780.67
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W02L12L10W11D00D11D02L13L01LH·COB25/07A·WEX01/08H·BRA04/08A·KER08/08H·ATH22/08H·TRE29/08A·LON05/09A·BRA19/09H·WEX22/09A·COB26/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.700.870.670.600.73
vs Stronger (13)0.770.770.830.670.710.86
vs Similar (17)0.710.650.890.670.500.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dundalk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.6%-------✓ Hit

ðŸŽ― 13. Player market rates

Dundalk · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
D. Horgan33%
Gbemi Arubi32%
Cian Dillon20%
Danny Mullen18%
Tyreke Wilson17%
Trevor Clarke17%
Eoin Kenny14%
Ronan Teahan14%
D. McDaid7%
Bobby Burns7%
Shane Tracey6%
Robert Cornwall6%
Aodh Dervin4%
H. Groome4%
Conor O'Keeffe0%
Tom Grivosti0%
Keith Buckley0%
Conor Kearns0%
T. Wilson0%
Enda Minogue0%
Mayowa Animasahun0%
Harvey Warren0%
Leonardo Gaxha0%
Sean Spaight0%
Vinnie Leonard0%
Egor Vassenin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vinnie Leonard33%
Bobby Burns32%
Keith Buckley30%
Aodh Dervin28%
Robert Cornwall28%
Mayowa Animasahun28%
Tom Grivosti25%
Egor Vassenin25%
Harvey Warren21%
Cian Dillon20%
Conor O'Keeffe17%
Trevor Clarke17%
T. Wilson16%
Shane Tracey12%
D. Horgan11%
Ronan Teahan10%
Danny Mullen9%
Gbemi Arubi9%
Tyreke Wilson9%
H. Groome8%
D. McDaid7%
Eoin Kenny5%
Conor Kearns0%
Enda Minogue0%
Leonardo Gaxha0%
Sean Spaight0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Grivosti50%
D. Horgan30%
Conor O'Keeffe17%
Gbemi Arubi14%
Eoin Kenny10%
Tyreke Wilson9%
Aodh Dervin8%
T. Wilson5%
H. Groome4%
D. McDaid4%
Keith Buckley4%
Bobby Burns0%
Danny Mullen0%
Trevor Clarke0%
Robert Cornwall0%
Conor Kearns0%
Enda Minogue0%
Mayowa Animasahun0%
Harvey Warren0%
Cian Dillon0%
Leonardo Gaxha0%
Sean Spaight0%
Shane Tracey0%
Vinnie Leonard0%
Ronan Teahan0%
Egor Vassenin0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. Horgan41%
Cian Dillon40%
Gbemi Arubi32%
Danny Mullen18%
Trevor Clarke17%
Bobby Burns7%
Eoin Kenny5%
Ronan Teahan5%
H. Groome4%
D. McDaid4%
Conor O'Keeffe0%
Tom Grivosti0%
Robert Cornwall0%
Keith Buckley0%
Conor Kearns0%
Aodh Dervin0%
T. Wilson0%
Enda Minogue0%
Mayowa Animasahun0%
Harvey Warren0%
Leonardo Gaxha0%
Sean Spaight0%
Tyreke Wilson0%
Shane Tracey0%
Vinnie Leonard0%
Egor Vassenin0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (20)
€3m
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Dundalk's squad is €2m more valuable than Finn Harps's (€3m vs €0m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (3)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
Dundalk and Finn Harps have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (6)
€1m
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
Dundalk and Finn Harps have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (11)
€2m
CR (2)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
Dundalk's defence is €2m more valuable than Finn Harps's (€2m vs €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
5
DUN wins
1
Draws
1
FH wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dundalk vs Finn Harps · H/A from DUN
DateH/AGameScore
23/06/25AFinn Harps Vs DUN1-0
21/04/25HDUN Vs Finn Harps1-1
21/02/25AFinn Harps Vs DUN0-1
14/10/22AFinn Harps Vs DUN1-2
22/07/22HDUN Vs Finn Harps3-0
23/05/22AFinn Harps Vs DUN0-1
28/02/22HDUN Vs Finn Harps3-0

DundalkDundalk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/10/25AAthlone Town Vs DUN1-1
26/09/25HDUN Vs UCD3-2
20/09/25ALongford Town Vs DUN3-2
12/09/25HDUN Vs Bray Wanderers3-1
05/09/25AWexford Vs DUN0-0
29/08/25HDUN Vs Kerry3-3
22/08/25ATreaty United Vs DUN0-7
08/08/25HDUN Vs Athlone Town6-1
04/08/25HDUN Vs Longford Town4-1
01/08/25AUCD Vs DUN0-1

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/09/25ACobh Ramblers Vs FH4-1
22/09/25HFH Vs Wexford1-3
19/09/25ABray Wanderers Vs FH3-2
05/09/25ALongford Town Vs FH1-1
29/08/25HFH Vs Treaty United1-0
22/08/25HFH Vs Athlone Town2-1
08/08/25AKerry Vs FH0-1
04/08/25HFH Vs Bray Wanderers2-2
01/08/25AWexford Vs FH2-1
25/07/25HFH Vs Cobh Ramblers2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dundalk
Dundalk
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWD1.66
HomeWWDWW1.73
AwayWWDLD1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%50%42%
AVG goals2.642.962.29
Over 1.5 %70%77%62%
Over 2.5 %42%46%38%
Over 3.5 %28%35%21%
Scored1.601.731.46
Conceded1.041.230.83
BTTS50%54%46%
Clean Sheet32%23%42%
Corners10.7510.1111.57
Cards4.934.785.17
Finn Harps
Finn Harps
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLL1.04
HomeDDWWL1.30
AwayLWDLL0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%35%15%
AVG goals2.562.572.56
Over 1.5 %74%74%74%
Over 2.5 %44%48%41%
Over 3.5 %32%26%37%
Scored1.121.300.96
Conceded1.441.261.59
BTTS58%57%59%
Clean Sheet24%30%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DundalkDundalk3679
64%
2.2
7431+43
2.9
72%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0122.10.9
-
2Cobh RamblersCobh Ramblers3872
58%
1.9
7139+32
2.9
82%
63%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
3Bray WanderersBray Wanderers3971
59%
1.8
6855+13
3.2
79%
67%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.4
-
4UCDUCD3756
43%
1.5
4944+5
2.5
68%
46%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.2
-
5Treaty UnitedTreaty United3951
36%
1.3
5250+2
2.6
72%
46%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
6Longford TownLongford Town3645
33%
1.2
4359-16
2.8
83%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
7WexfordWexford3544
34%
1.3
4248-6
2.6
71%
49%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
8Finn HarpsFinn Harps3636
22%
1.0
4257-15
2.8
75%
50%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
9KerryKerry3636
25%
1.0
4058-18
2.7
72%
44%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.6
-
10Athlone TownAthlone Town3620
8%
0.6
2969-40
2.7
75%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
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Ireland: First Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →

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