The contest between Dundee Utd and Heart Of Midlothian is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. The predicted probabilities are 32% for a home victory, 28% for a draw, and 39% for an away triumph. The average goal tally sits at 2.7, yet the most likely total is two goals, a 26% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13.5% probability, reflecting the evenly matched nature of the sides. Dundee, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages one goal scored and 1.67 conceded, while Hearts, in their recent unbeaten run, have been more potent away. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards (88.7%), Over 19.5 fouls (87.5%), Over 21.5 fouls (76.5%), Over 1.5 (76.0%), Over 3.5 cards (75.5%), Over 8.5 corners (74.2%), and Under 3.5 (71.8%). Each of these picks carries its own probability, independent of the match-result odds.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved accurate as Heart of Midlothian secured a 0-1 away win, extending their unbeaten run. The favourite, an away victory, was chosen with a 39% probability and the model’s pick was correct. The final score matched the actual result. The model’s selections largely materialised: Over 2.5 cards hit at 88.7%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 87.5%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 76.5%, Over 3.5 cards hit at 75.5%, Over 8.5 corners hit at 74.2%, and Under 3.5 hit at 71.8%. Only Over 1.5 missed, coming in at 76.0%. The match confirmed the model’s overall accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dundee Utd win✗ Miss
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian win✓ Hit
39.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dundee Utd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
2.00
1.00
1.80
0.80
2.20
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.88
2.00
1.00
1.67
0.80
2.20
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.40
2.20
1.40
1.20
1.40
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (2)
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
-
-
vs Weaker (7)
2.00
1.57
2.67
1.33
1.50
1.75
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.0%
Under 1.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.2%
Under 2.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.2%
Under 3.5
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.6%
No
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-2
8.7%
0-1 ✓
8.5%
0-0
8.1%
2-1
7.8%
1-0
7.4%
0-2
6.9%
2-2
5.5%
Dundee Utd goals ↓
Heart Of Midlothian goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
8.5%
6.9%
3.2%
1.1%
1
7.4%
13%
8.7%
4.1%
1.5%
2
5.5%
7.8%
5.5%
2.6%
0.9%
3
2.3%
3.3%
2.3%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.7%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dundee Utd goals (down), columns = Heart Of Midlothian goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.26
Aberdeen
1.87
Heart Of Midlothian
1.71
ST Johnstone
1.47
Inverness CT
1.37
Motherwell
1.32
Dundee
1.26
Ross County
1.26
Partick
1.21
Hamilton
1.13
Kilmarnock
0.95
Dundee Utd
0.82
Dundee Utd is 0.89 points worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of average points per game (0.82 vs 1.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.45
Aberdeen
1.63
Heart Of Midlothian
1.55
ST Johnstone
1.53
Ross County
1.45
Inverness CT
1.42
Dundee
1.39
Motherwell
1.24
Dundee Utd
1.18
Hamilton
1.11
Partick
1.08
Kilmarnock
1.08
Dundee Utd is 0.37 goals worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.55).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.82
Heart Of Midlothian
1.05
Inverness CT
1.26
Aberdeen
1.26
Partick
1.32
ST Johnstone
1.45
Dundee
1.50
Ross County
1.61
Hamilton
1.66
Motherwell
1.66
Kilmarnock
1.68
Dundee Utd
1.84
Dundee Utd is 0.79 goals worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals conceded per game (1.84 vs 1.05).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dundee Utd
For 5.4 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 12.2 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heart Of Midlothian
For 5.4 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 3.3 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 14.3 · Total 29.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundee Utd
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (10)
11.4
13.2
9.6
4.1
3.8
4.4
21.6
20.8
22.4
vs Stronger (1)
14.0
14.0
-
7.0
7.0
-
21.0
21.0
-
vs Similar (8)
11.2
14.0
9.6
3.8
2.7
4.4
21.6
20.3
22.4
vs Weaker (1)
10.0
10.0
-
4.0
4.0
-
22.0
22.0
-
% over line
60%
80%
40%
70%
60%
80%
50%
40%
60%
% under line
40%
20%
60%
30%
40%
20%
50%
60%
40%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (10)
10.5
12.6
8.4
5.7
4.6
6.8
29.3
30.8
27.8
vs Stronger (1)
11.0
-
11.0
6.0
-
6.0
23.0
-
23.0
vs Similar (2)
10.5
10.5
-
3.0
3.0
-
33.0
33.0
-
vs Weaker (7)
10.4
14.0
7.8
6.4
5.7
7.0
29.1
29.3
29.0
% over line
60%
60%
60%
90%
80%
100%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
40%
40%
40%
10%
20%
0%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Dundee Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Celtic
11.5
Dundee Utd
11.4
Ross County
11.2
Kilmarnock
11.1
Aberdeen
10.7
ST Johnstone
10.6
Heart Of Midlothian
10.5
Inverness CT
10.3
Motherwell
10.0
Dundee
9.5
Partick
8.6
Hamilton
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Heart Of Midlothian
5.7
Dundee Utd
4.1
Inverness CT
4.0
Hamilton
3.9
Aberdeen
3.6
Partick
3.4
ST Johnstone
3.4
Dundee
3.3
Celtic
3.2
Ross County
3.2
Kilmarnock
3.1
Motherwell
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
29.3
Hamilton
27.3
Aberdeen
27.1
Dundee
25.4
Inverness CT
24.7
Partick
24.3
Kilmarnock
23.6
Ross County
23.3
Celtic
23.0
ST Johnstone
22.0
Dundee Utd
21.6
Motherwell
19.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
62.8%
Under 9.5
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
75.5%
Under 3.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
76.5%
Under 21.5
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dundee Utd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.90
0.40
0.60
0.20
1.20
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.12
0.88
0.00
0.33
0.20
1.20
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (2)
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
-
-
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.43
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dundee Utd over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee Utd over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee Utd over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dundee Utd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.10
0.60
1.20
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.75
1.12
1.00
1.33
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.80
1.40
0.80
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
1.14
1.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dundee Utd over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee Utd over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee Utd over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dundee Utd · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emmanuel Agyei25%
J. Randall20%
William Ferry20%
L. Rose20%
Z. Sapsford20%
Vicko Ševelj0%
Panutche Camará0%
J. Walton0%
M. Merghem0%
N. Farrugia0%
Dylan Tait0%
J. Rawlins0%
Idjessi Metsoko0%
Michael Forbes0%
B. Esselink0%
D. Bennie0%
Abdoulaye Yoro0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vicko Ševelj67%
D. Bennie40%
Abdoulaye Yoro33%
Dylan Tait25%
William Ferry20%
B. Esselink20%
L. Rose20%
Z. Sapsford20%
Panutche Camará0%
J. Walton0%
M. Merghem0%
N. Farrugia0%
J. Rawlins0%
J. Randall0%
Idjessi Metsoko0%
Michael Forbes0%
Emmanuel Agyei0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
M. Merghem25%
J. Randall20%
William Ferry20%
Vicko Ševelj0%
Panutche Camará0%
J. Walton0%
N. Farrugia0%
Dylan Tait0%
J. Rawlins0%
Idjessi Metsoko0%
Michael Forbes0%
B. Esselink0%
L. Rose0%
Z. Sapsford0%
D. Bennie0%
Emmanuel Agyei0%
Abdoulaye Yoro0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
M. Merghem25%
Dylan Tait25%
D. Bennie20%
Vicko Ševelj0%
Panutche Camará0%
J. Walton0%
N. Farrugia0%
J. Rawlins0%
J. Randall0%
William Ferry0%
Idjessi Metsoko0%
Michael Forbes0%
B. Esselink0%
L. Rose0%
Z. Sapsford0%
Emmanuel Agyei0%
Abdoulaye Yoro0%
Heart Of Midlothian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
James Wilson50%
Calvin Miller33%
Josh McPake25%
Tom Renaud25%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Pierre Landry Kaboré17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Rogers Mato0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amadou Ba-Sy33%
Pierre Landry Kaboré33%
Tomas Magnusson20%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Jordi Altena17%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cláudio Braga33%
Rogers Mato33%
Josh McPake25%
Sabah Kerjota25%
Blair Spittal17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cláudio Braga50%
Laurent Mendy33%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
KIL (24)
€7m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
PAR (20)
€3m
RC (11)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
Dundee Utd's squad is €11m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€11m vs €22m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
IC (3)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
Dundee Utd's attack is €9m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€4m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (5)
€20m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
Dundee Utd's midfield is €1m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€3m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
PAR (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
IC (1)
€0m
Dundee Utd's defence is €1m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€4m vs €6m).
Scotland: Premiership 2015/16 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Aberdeen
ST Johnstone
Inverness CT
Motherwell
Dundee
Ross County
Partick
Kilmarnock