The model favours an away win, with a 53% chance for Hearts to come away victorious, a 27% chance of a draw and a 20% chance of a Dundee win. The expected total goals is 2.6, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 12.7% probability. Dundee, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Hearts, on the road, averages 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. Suggested selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 88.7%, Over 2.5 cards at 85.0%, Over 8.5 corners at 84.5%, Over 21.5 fouls at 78.4%, Over 9.5 corners at 75.8%, Over 1.5 at 74.8% and Under 3.5 at 73.2%. The match is expected to be tight, but the data points to a Hearts victory.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, an away win, failed to materialise as Dundee Utd edged Hearts 2-1, a result that surprised the model. The prediction had assigned a 53% probability to the away side, yet the home side’s win was the actual outcome. The model’s selection of an away victory was therefore incorrect. The model’s other picks all hit: Over 19.5 fouls at 88.7%, Over 2.5 cards at 85.0%, Over 8.5 corners at 84.5%, Over 21.5 fouls at 78.4%, Over 9.5 corners at 75.8%, Over 1.5 at 74.8% and Under 3.5 at 73.2%. Dundee’s recent form, a string of losses, made the win an upset, while Hearts, unbeaten in five, missed the chance to convert their form into a victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dundee Utd win✓ Hit
20.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian win✗ Miss
52.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dundee Utd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.96
1.96
1.08
1.77
0.83
2.17
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
4.00
1.00
3.50
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (20)
0.95
1.70
1.10
1.50
0.80
1.90
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
12% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.88
1.00
2.45
1.09
1.38
0.92
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (7)
2.14
1.14
3.00
1.25
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.87
0.93
2.17
0.83
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
46% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.8%
Under 1.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.6%
Under 2.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.8%
Under 3.5
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.0%
No
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
0-1
11.0%
0-2
10.1%
1-2
9.6%
0-0
8.5%
1-0
5.8%
0-3
5.6%
2-1 ✓
5.5%
Dundee Utd goals ↓
Heart Of Midlothian goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
11%
10%
5.6%
2.3%
1
5.8%
13%
9.6%
5.3%
2.2%
2
3.3%
5.5%
4.6%
2.5%
1.1%
3
1.1%
1.8%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dundee Utd goals (down), columns = Heart Of Midlothian goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.26
Aberdeen
1.87
Heart Of Midlothian
1.71
ST Johnstone
1.47
Inverness CT
1.37
Motherwell
1.32
Dundee
1.26
Ross County
1.26
Partick
1.21
Hamilton
1.13
Kilmarnock
0.95
Dundee Utd
0.82
Dundee Utd is 0.89 points worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of average points per game (0.82 vs 1.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.45
Aberdeen
1.63
Heart Of Midlothian
1.55
ST Johnstone
1.53
Ross County
1.45
Inverness CT
1.42
Dundee
1.39
Motherwell
1.24
Dundee Utd
1.18
Hamilton
1.11
Partick
1.08
Kilmarnock
1.08
Dundee Utd is 0.37 goals worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.55).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.82
Heart Of Midlothian
1.05
Inverness CT
1.26
Aberdeen
1.26
Partick
1.32
ST Johnstone
1.45
Dundee
1.50
Ross County
1.61
Hamilton
1.66
Motherwell
1.66
Kilmarnock
1.68
Dundee Utd
1.84
Dundee Utd is 0.79 goals worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals conceded per game (1.84 vs 1.05).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dundee Utd
For 7.5 · Against 6.6 · Total 14.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 12.3 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heart Of Midlothian
For 4.3 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 13.6 · Total 28.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundee Utd
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (25)
12.8
13.6
11.8
3.8
4.2
3.3
22.6
22.8
22.3
vs Stronger (3)
15.3
15.0
16.0
3.7
4.5
2.0
20.0
21.0
18.0
vs Similar (20)
12.2
13.7
10.8
3.9
4.2
3.5
22.9
23.2
22.7
vs Weaker (2)
14.0
10.0
18.0
3.5
4.0
3.0
22.5
22.0
23.0
% over line
76%
92%
58%
52%
54%
50%
56%
54%
58%
% under line
24%
8%
42%
48%
46%
50%
44%
46%
42%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (24)
10.5
11.1
10.0
5.2
4.7
5.6
28.2
29.2
27.5
vs Stronger (2)
10.0
9.0
11.0
5.0
4.0
6.0
22.5
22.0
23.0
vs Similar (7)
10.4
10.0
11.0
4.7
3.8
6.0
30.4
29.8
31.3
vs Weaker (15)
10.6
12.2
9.6
5.5
5.5
5.4
28.0
30.0
26.7
% over line
62%
55%
69%
83%
73%
92%
92%
100%
85%
% under line
38%
45%
31%
17%
27%
8%
8%
0%
15%
This opponent (Dundee Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dundee Utd
12.8
Aberdeen
11.5
Celtic
11.4
Kilmarnock
11.0
Ross County
11.0
Motherwell
10.7
ST Johnstone
10.7
Heart Of Midlothian
10.5
Inverness CT
10.2
Dundee
10.2
Partick
9.9
Hamilton
9.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Heart Of Midlothian
5.2
Hamilton
4.2
Kilmarnock
3.8
ST Johnstone
3.8
Dundee Utd
3.8
Inverness CT
3.7
Partick
3.7
Aberdeen
3.4
Dundee
3.4
Motherwell
3.3
Ross County
3.2
Celtic
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
28.2
Hamilton
26.0
Aberdeen
25.5
Inverness CT
24.9
Dundee
24.8
Kilmarnock
24.7
Ross County
23.4
ST Johnstone
22.9
Partick
22.9
Dundee Utd
22.6
Motherwell
22.2
Celtic
22.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
75.8%
Under 9.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
69.4%
Under 3.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
78.4%
Under 21.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dundee Utd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.92
0.69
0.69
0.50
1.17
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.33
1.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.80
0.60
0.50
0.50
1.10
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
48% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.88
0.46
1.36
0.55
0.46
0.38
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (7)
1.29
0.86
1.75
1.25
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (15)
0.73
0.27
1.17
0.00
0.44
0.44
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dundee Utd over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee Utd over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee Utd over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dundee Utd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.36
1.04
0.38
1.08
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.67
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.90
0.50
1.00
0.30
0.80
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
32% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.54
1.09
0.55
0.92
0.54
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (7)
0.86
0.29
1.25
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (15)
1.13
0.67
1.00
0.83
1.22
0.56
Clean sheet %
62% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dundee Utd over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee Utd over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee Utd over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 9.5 corners
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dundee Utd · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emmanuel Agyei25%
J. Randall20%
William Ferry20%
L. Rose20%
Z. Sapsford20%
Vicko Ševelj0%
Panutche Camará0%
J. Walton0%
M. Merghem0%
N. Farrugia0%
Dylan Tait0%
J. Rawlins0%
Idjessi Metsoko0%
Michael Forbes0%
B. Esselink0%
D. Bennie0%
Abdoulaye Yoro0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vicko Ševelj67%
D. Bennie40%
Abdoulaye Yoro33%
Dylan Tait25%
William Ferry20%
B. Esselink20%
L. Rose20%
Z. Sapsford20%
Panutche Camará0%
J. Walton0%
M. Merghem0%
N. Farrugia0%
J. Rawlins0%
J. Randall0%
Idjessi Metsoko0%
Michael Forbes0%
Emmanuel Agyei0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
M. Merghem25%
J. Randall20%
William Ferry20%
Vicko Ševelj0%
Panutche Camará0%
J. Walton0%
N. Farrugia0%
Dylan Tait0%
J. Rawlins0%
Idjessi Metsoko0%
Michael Forbes0%
B. Esselink0%
L. Rose0%
Z. Sapsford0%
D. Bennie0%
Emmanuel Agyei0%
Abdoulaye Yoro0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
M. Merghem25%
Dylan Tait25%
D. Bennie20%
Vicko Ševelj0%
Panutche Camará0%
J. Walton0%
N. Farrugia0%
J. Rawlins0%
J. Randall0%
William Ferry0%
Idjessi Metsoko0%
Michael Forbes0%
B. Esselink0%
L. Rose0%
Z. Sapsford0%
Emmanuel Agyei0%
Abdoulaye Yoro0%
Heart Of Midlothian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
James Wilson50%
Calvin Miller33%
Josh McPake25%
Tom Renaud25%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Pierre Landry Kaboré17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Rogers Mato0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amadou Ba-Sy33%
Pierre Landry Kaboré33%
Tomas Magnusson20%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Jordi Altena17%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cláudio Braga33%
Rogers Mato33%
Josh McPake25%
Sabah Kerjota25%
Blair Spittal17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cláudio Braga50%
Laurent Mendy33%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
KIL (24)
€7m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
PAR (20)
€3m
RC (11)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
Dundee Utd's squad is €11m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€11m vs €22m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
IC (3)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
Dundee Utd's attack is €9m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€4m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (5)
€20m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
Dundee Utd's midfield is €1m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€3m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
PAR (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
IC (1)
€0m
Dundee Utd's defence is €1m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€4m vs €6m).
Scotland: Premiership 2015/16 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celtic
Aberdeen
ST Johnstone
Inverness CT
Motherwell
Dundee
Ross County
Partick
Kilmarnock