Dundee Utd face a tough test at home against Rangers. The visitors have been struggling in recent form, coming off two straight defeats, but their away scoring and conceding numbers are actually impressive, averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against weaker opponents. In contrast, Dundee Utd have been coming off a defeat and have a poor recent record, but they do have a strong home form, averaging 2 goals scored and 1 conceded against stronger opponents. The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.2 goals and a most likely score of 1-1 (22%). The model's selection is the away win, with a 60% chance of victory. The away win is the favourite, with a 60% chance of occurring, compared to a 18% chance of a home win and a 22% chance of a draw. The model also suggests selecting Over 1.5 goals, which has an 83.6% chance of occurring, and has an edge of 2%.
Results analysis
A surprise in the Scottish Premiership as Rangers, who were not expected to win, came from behind to secure a 1-1 draw against Dundee Utd. The win extends Dundee Utd's run of scoring at least two goals in their last five home matches, but they were unable to capitalise on their strong form. The pre-match favourite, Dundee Utd, was given a 18% chance of winning, but the model's selection, an Away win, was only marginally less likely at 60%. Unfortunately for the model, its call was wrong. The model's selection of an Away win was correct, but the actual result was a draw. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 83.6%.
ðŊ 1. Model Analysis
Dundee Utd winâ Miss
17.5%
Avg Implied 17.3% · @ 5.42
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
5.90
Bet365
5.75
Pinnacle
5.67
1xBet
5.66
Dafabet
5.60
Drawâ Hit
22.3%
Avg Implied 21.4% · @ 4.38
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.70
Superbet
4.60
Betano
4.55
Pinnacle
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
Rangers winâ Miss
60.2%
Avg Implied 61.3% · @ 1.53
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.55
Betfair
1.55
Dafabet
1.55
â― 2. Goal Analysis
Dundee Utd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.57
1.27
1.07
1.07
2.07
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
2.20
2.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (21)
1.00
1.48
0.80
1.10
1.18
1.82
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
1.25
2.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.27
2.20
1.00
2.00
1.53
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (5)
1.60
1.40
1.33
1.00
2.00
2.00
vs Weaker (24)
2.25
1.17
2.42
1.00
2.08
1.33
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee Utd) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.6%
@ 1.15+1.6%
Under 1.5
16.4%
@ 5.19-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Pinnacle
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Under
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.50
Pinnacle
5.49
BetVictor
5.40
Superbet
5.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.6%
@ 1.50-0.9%
Under 2.5
38.4%
@ 2.50+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
10Bet
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.60
Betano
2.57
10Bet
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Unibet
2.55
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.3%
@ 2.27-2.4%
Under 3.5
60.7%
@ 1.63+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.38
1xBet
2.32
Superbet
2.30
Pinnacle
2.30
Bet365
2.30
Under
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Unibet
1.63
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.7%
@ 1.58-0.2%
No
41.3%
@ 2.27+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
888Sport
1.60
William Hil
1.60
Marathonbet
1.57
No
Betfair
2.38
10Bet
2.35
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.26
Unibet
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 â
10.3%@ 8.17+4.8%
1-2
9.9%@ 7.58+3.9%
0-2
9.2%@ 8.57+4.0%
0-1
7.8%@ 8.90+2.7%
1-3
7.0%@ 10.22+2.5%
0-3
6.5%@ 11.41+2.5%
2-2
5.3%@ 12.66+1.7%
0-0
5.1%@ 16.64+2.4%
Dundee Utd goals ↓
Rangers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
7.8%
9.2%
6.5%
3.4%
1
3.5%
10%
9.9%
7.0%
3.7%
2
2.4%
5.0%
5.3%
3.7%
2.0%
3
0.9%
1.8%
1.9%
1.3%
0.7%
4
0.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dundee Utd goals (down), columns = Rangers goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Rangers
1.89
Motherwell
1.61
Hibernian
1.50
Falkirk
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.18
Dundee
1.11
Aberdeen
1.05
Kilmarnock
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.05
ST Mirren
0.95
Dundee Utd is 0.71 points worse than Rangers in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.89).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Heart Of Midlothian
1.76
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.53
Falkirk
1.32
Kilmarnock
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.29
Dundee
1.11
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
0.99
ST Mirren
0.80
Dundee Utd is 0.71 goals worse than Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 2.00).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Motherwell
0.95
Celtic
1.08
Rangers
1.13
Hibernian
1.16
ST Mirren
1.40
Aberdeen
1.45
ST Johnstone
1.56
Dundee Utd
1.58
Dundee
1.61
Falkirk
1.63
Kilmarnock
1.79
Dundee Utd is 0.45 goals worse than Rangers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.13).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
66%
Rangers
58%
Motherwell
58%
Heart Of Midlothian
53%
Falkirk
51%
Aberdeen
48%
Hibernian
47%
ST Mirren
46%
Dundee
44%
Kilmarnock
42%
Dundee Utd
42%
Dundee Utd is 15.7 percentage points worse than Rangers in terms of average possession (42% vs 58%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Dundee Utd
For 4.8 · Against 5.7 · Total 10.5
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.7
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 9.8 · Total 22.1
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rangers
For 6.3 · Against 3.3 · Total 9.6
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.4 · Total 3.9
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 12.9 · Total 24.8
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundee Utd
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
11.5
9.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
21.9
21.2
22.6
vs Stronger (10)
12.6
13.2
12.0
3.0
4.0
2.0
17.6
16.8
18.4
vs Similar (33)
9.6
10.7
8.6
3.9
3.6
4.1
23.7
22.9
24.4
vs Weaker (7)
11.3
12.2
10.0
2.9
2.8
3.0
20.3
20.5
20.0
% over line
60%
71%
50%
48%
44%
52%
48%
46%
50%
% under line
40%
29%
50%
52%
56%
48%
52%
54%
50%
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
9.7
11.1
4.0
3.8
4.2
25.7
25.8
25.6
vs Stronger (1)
7.0
-
7.0
1.0
-
1.0
30.0
-
30.0
vs Similar (7)
10.0
9.8
10.5
4.7
4.4
5.5
30.4
29.8
32.0
vs Weaker (42)
10.6
9.7
11.3
3.9
3.6
4.2
24.8
24.8
24.9
% over line
59%
54%
64%
52%
52%
52%
76%
79%
72%
% under line
41%
46%
36%
48%
48%
48%
24%
21%
28%
This opponent (Dundee Utd) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Celtic
11.0
ST Mirren
11.0
Hibernian
10.7
Dundee Utd
10.5
Rangers
10.5
ST Johnstone
10.4
Aberdeen
10.2
Heart Of Midlothian
10.0
Falkirk
9.9
Dundee
9.9
Kilmarnock
9.6
Motherwell
8.6
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aberdeen
4.8
Hibernian
4.6
Motherwell
4.6
ST Johnstone
4.4
Heart Of Midlothian
4.3
Kilmarnock
4.2
Falkirk
4.1
Rangers
4.1
Dundee Utd
4.0
Celtic
3.8
Dundee
3.6
ST Mirren
3.4
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Motherwell
25.8
Rangers
25.7
Aberdeen
25.3
Kilmarnock
24.4
Falkirk
24.3
Heart Of Midlothian
23.6
ST Johnstone
22.7
Hibernian
22.5
Dundee
22.2
Dundee Utd
22.0
Celtic
21.9
ST Mirren
21.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.3%
@ 1.55+2.0%
Under 9.5
38.7%
@ 2.27-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.52
Under
Unibet
2.40
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.27
Pinnacle
2.25
Superbet
2.17
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
63.8%
@ 1.64+7.6%
Under 3.5
36.2%
@ 2.11-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Unibet
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Under
Superbet
2.27
Unibet
2.25
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
66.9%
Under 21.5
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĒ 6. Odd / Even
ðĨ 7. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 8. Handicap
ðĨ 9. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Scotland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celtic
ST Mirren
Motherwell
Heart Of Midlothian
Dundee
ST Johnstone
Hibernian
Aberdeen
Falkirk
Kilmarnock