Dundee are tipped to win, with a 42% chance of a home victory, a 29% chance of a draw and a 29% chance of a Hearts win. The model expects 2.5 goals on average, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14% probability. Dundee’s home form shows they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded against weaker opponents, while Hearts, playing away, have a similar scoring and conceding profile. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 87.6%, Over 19.5 fouls at 80.0%, Under 3.5 at 76.2%, Under 4.5 cards at 75.3%, Over 8.5 corners at 73.3% and Over 1.5 at 72.1%. The match is set to be a close contest with Dundee’s recent form hinting at a comeback after a 1-2 loss to Hibernian, while Hearts have remained unbeaten in their last five games.
Results analysis
The updated form storyline shows Dundee coming off a defeat yet still rallying, while Hearts remain unbeaten in their last five. The final score of 3-1 confirmed a home win, exactly the result the model predicted with a 42% probability. The model’s favourite, Home win, was correct. The suggested picks delivered a mixed bag: Under 5.5 cards hit with 87.6% confidence, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 80.0%, Under 3.5 missed at 76.2%, Under 4.5 cards hit at 75.3%, Over 8.5 corners hit at 73.3%, and Over 1.5 hit at 72.1%. All selections were settled, with the majority proving accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dundee win✓ Hit
41.9%
Avg Implied 21.1% · @ 4.39
Edge
+20.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied 24.8% · @ 3.73
Edge
+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian win✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied 54.1% · @ 1.71
Edge
-25.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dundee
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.30
1.53
1.20
1.33
1.40
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
6.00
-
-
2.00
6.00
vs Similar (23)
1.52
1.17
1.67
1.33
1.36
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.60
2.44
1.50
0.79
1.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
3.25
1.00
1.50
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (5)
1.00
1.20
0.67
1.33
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
2.05
1.38
3.18
1.55
0.80
1.20
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.1%
Under 1.5
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.1%
@ 1.70-9.9%
Under 2.5
54.9%
@ 2.08+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.8%
Under 3.5
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.2%
No
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
10.3%
0-0
9.6%
2-1
8.8%
2-0
8.0%
0-1
7.9%
1-2
7.0%
0-2
5.1%
Dundee goals ↓
Heart Of Midlothian goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.6%
7.9%
5.1%
1.9%
0.5%
1
10%
14%
7.0%
2.6%
0.7%
2
8.0%
8.8%
4.8%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.7%
4.0%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.3%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dundee goals (down), columns = Heart Of Midlothian goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Dundee
1.67
Raith Rvs
1.59
Dunfermline
1.44
Inverness CT
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.19
Arbroath
1.11
Morton
1.07
Ayr
1.07
Alloa
0.81
Dundee is 0.44 points worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 2.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.33
Dundee
1.81
Raith Rvs
1.67
Dunfermline
1.41
Queen of Sth
1.41
Inverness CT
1.33
Ayr
1.15
Alloa
1.11
Arbroath
1.04
Morton
0.81
Dundee is 0.52 goals worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals scored per game (1.81 vs 2.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Inverness CT
1.15
Morton
1.22
Dunfermline
1.26
Arbroath
1.26
Raith Rvs
1.33
Ayr
1.37
Dundee
1.48
Queen of Sth
1.89
Alloa
2.22
Dundee is 0.59 goals worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 0.89).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dundee
For 5.9 · Against 3.9 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 13.6 · Total 27.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heart Of Midlothian
For 6.4 · Against 3.5 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 13.2 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundee
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.2
9.7
3.5
3.4
3.5
24.5
22.6
26.2
vs Stronger (6)
10.8
11.8
9.0
3.7
3.8
3.5
22.2
22.5
21.5
vs Similar (37)
9.7
9.4
10.0
3.2
3.1
3.2
24.8
22.4
26.6
vs Weaker (7)
10.4
12.2
8.0
4.7
4.0
5.7
25.1
23.8
27.0
% over line
56%
62%
50%
52%
50%
54%
72%
67%
77%
% under line
44%
38%
50%
48%
50%
46%
28%
33%
23%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.5
10.5
4.2
4.2
4.2
27.1
26.2
28.1
vs Stronger (10)
10.0
9.4
10.6
4.3
5.0
3.6
25.8
25.6
26.0
vs Similar (12)
9.3
9.8
8.8
5.6
5.5
5.7
31.2
29.7
32.8
vs Weaker (28)
11.2
11.1
11.3
3.6
3.5
3.7
25.8
24.9
26.8
% over line
60%
58%
62%
60%
62%
58%
80%
85%
75%
% under line
40%
42%
38%
40%
38%
42%
20%
15%
25%
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Alloa
11.8
Inverness CT
11.3
Queen of Sth
10.8
Morton
10.7
Dunfermline
10.6
Heart Of Midlothian
10.5
Ayr
10.4
Raith Rvs
10.0
Dundee
10.0
Arbroath
9.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Heart Of Midlothian
4.2
Raith Rvs
3.5
Arbroath
3.5
Dundee
3.5
Dunfermline
3.2
Ayr
3.2
Inverness CT
3.1
Morton
3.0
Queen of Sth
2.9
Alloa
2.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
27.1
Dundee
24.5
Raith Rvs
21.9
Arbroath
21.8
Ayr
21.5
Alloa
21.1
Morton
20.3
Dunfermline
20.2
Inverness CT
20.2
Queen of Sth
19.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
61.8%
Under 9.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.1%
Under 3.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
66.0%
Under 21.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dundee
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.63
0.80
0.33
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
4.00
-
-
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.48
0.83
0.25
0.73
0.73
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
1.00
0.81
0.21
0.57
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (5)
0.00
0.80
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (21)
0.90
0.57
1.45
0.73
0.30
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dundee over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dundee
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.67
0.73
0.87
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.74
0.70
0.83
1.08
0.64
0.27
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.90
1.44
0.69
0.57
1.14
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
3.50
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.40
0.67
0.33
1.50
0.50
vs Weaker (21)
1.14
0.81
1.73
0.82
0.50
0.80
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dundee over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dundee · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joe Westley50%
Drey Wright25%
Owen Bevan25%
Joe Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ethan Hamilton25%
Drey Wright25%
Ryan Finnigan25%
Joe Westley25%
Owen Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Bevan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alan Forrest25%
Joe Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Drey Wright0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Westley0%
Owen Bevan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Drey Wright0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Westley0%
Owen Bevan0%
Heart Of Midlothian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
James Wilson50%
Calvin Miller33%
Josh McPake25%
Tom Renaud25%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Pierre Landry Kaboré17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Rogers Mato0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amadou Ba-Sy33%
Pierre Landry Kaboré33%
Tomas Magnusson20%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Jordi Altena17%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cláudio Braga33%
Rogers Mato33%
Josh McPake25%
Sabah Kerjota25%
Blair Spittal17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cláudio Braga50%
Laurent Mendy33%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (30)
€22m
DUN (21)
€5m
DUN (26)
€4m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
Dundee's squad is €17m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€5m vs €22m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (12)
€12m
DUN (9)
€2m
DUN (7)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
Dundee's attack is €11m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€1m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (6)
€4m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
Dundee's midfield is €2m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€2m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (12)
€6m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Dundee's defence is €3m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€2m vs €6m).
Scotland: Championship 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
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Dunfermline
Inverness CT
Arbroath
Morton