The model favours an away win, with Hibernian beating Dundee 1-2 at 48% probability. The overall shape of the match is balanced, with a 27% chance of a draw and a 25% chance of a home win. The average number of goals expected is 2.7, and the single most likely total is 2 goals, making the 1-1 scoreline the most probable outcome at 12.9%. Dundee, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Hibernian, on the road to a weaker opponent, averages 1.43 goals scored and 0.57 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls (88.4%), Under 5.5 cards (88.0%), Over 21.5 fouls (77.9%), Over 1.5 goals (76.6%), Under 4.5 cards (75.8%), Under 3.5 goals (71.0%), and Under 11.5 corners (70.4%). Dundee’s recent form shows a 5-match record of LWLWL, coming off a 1-2 loss to Hibernian, while Hibernian’s recent form is WLDWD, coming off a 2-1 win over Dundee.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Hibernian, failed to deliver, as the match finished 2-2, a draw that left the model’s prediction wrong. The model had given the away side a 48% chance of victory, but the result was a stalemate. Dundee, coming off a defeat, and Hibernian, fresh from a win, both struggled to break the deadlock. The model’s other selections fared unevenly: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 88.4%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 77.9%, Over 1.5 hit at 76.6%, and Under 11.5 corners hit at 70.4%. In contrast, Under 5.5 cards missed at 88.0%, Under 4.5 cards missed at 75.8%, and Under 3.5 missed at 71.0%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dundee win✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied 23.7% · @ 3.97
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.1%
Avg Implied 25.9% · @ 3.64
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hibernian win✗ Miss
47.9%
Avg Implied 50.4% · @ 1.87
Edge
-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dundee
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.60
1.93
1.27
1.60
1.93
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
3.75
3.00
1.00
1.00
4.67
vs Similar (20)
1.90
1.40
1.91
1.55
1.89
1.22
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
0.83
1.67
0.33
1.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.90
1.13
1.00
1.40
0.80
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.17
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (8)
1.50
0.88
1.00
1.00
1.80
0.80
vs Weaker (16)
1.38
0.81
1.33
1.00
1.43
0.57
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.6%
Under 1.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.1%
@ 1.84-0.5%
Under 2.5
48.9%
@ 1.96+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.0%
Under 3.5
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.7%
No
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
1-2
9.5%
0-1
9.5%
0-2
8.6%
0-0
7.8%
2-1
6.5%
1-0
6.1%
2-2 ✓
5.2%
Dundee goals ↓
Hibernian goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
9.5%
8.6%
4.6%
1.9%
1
6.1%
13%
9.5%
5.1%
2.1%
2
4.0%
6.5%
5.2%
2.8%
1.1%
3
1.5%
2.4%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dundee goals (down), columns = Hibernian goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.45
Rangers
2.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.61
Livingston
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.26
Motherwell
1.21
Hibernian
1.18
ST Mirren
1.16
Aberdeen
1.08
Ross County
1.08
ST Johnstone
0.92
Dundee
0.76
Dundee is 0.42 points worse than Hibernian in terms of average points per game (0.76 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.42
Rangers
2.11
Heart Of Midlothian
1.42
Ross County
1.24
Motherwell
1.11
Aberdeen
1.08
Livingston
1.08
Hibernian
1.00
Dundee Utd
0.97
Dundee
0.89
ST Mirren
0.87
ST Johnstone
0.63
Dundee is 0.11 goals worse than Hibernian in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.58
Rangers
0.82
Hibernian
1.11
Dundee Utd
1.16
Heart Of Midlothian
1.16
Aberdeen
1.21
Livingston
1.21
ST Mirren
1.34
ST Johnstone
1.34
Motherwell
1.61
Ross County
1.61
Dundee
1.68
Dundee is 0.58 goals worse than Hibernian in terms of goals conceded per game (1.68 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dundee
For 6.8 · Against 6.3 · Total 13.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 11.9 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hibernian
For 5.5 · Against 3.0 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 12.3 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundee
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.4
10.3
3.2
3.2
3.2
24.1
23.2
25.0
vs Stronger (4)
9.8
9.0
10.0
3.2
3.0
3.3
26.8
31.0
25.3
vs Similar (36)
10.4
10.3
10.6
2.9
3.1
2.8
23.6
22.7
24.6
vs Weaker (10)
10.4
11.0
9.8
4.2
3.8
4.6
24.9
23.4
26.4
% over line
62%
67%
58%
46%
46%
46%
66%
62%
69%
% under line
38%
33%
42%
54%
54%
54%
34%
38%
31%
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.7
10.0
3.1
2.9
3.3
25.3
24.6
25.9
vs Stronger (9)
11.6
9.2
13.4
3.1
3.8
2.6
24.2
24.8
23.8
vs Similar (14)
10.1
11.8
8.9
3.2
2.3
3.9
26.4
26.7
26.2
vs Weaker (27)
10.0
10.6
9.2
3.0
2.9
3.2
25.0
23.7
26.6
% over line
54%
64%
44%
32%
28%
36%
78%
72%
84%
% under line
46%
36%
56%
68%
72%
64%
22%
28%
16%
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rangers
10.9
Ross County
10.8
Celtic
10.7
ST Mirren
10.7
Motherwell
10.6
Dundee Utd
10.6
Heart Of Midlothian
10.6
Dundee
10.4
Hibernian
10.3
ST Johnstone
9.5
Aberdeen
9.3
Livingston
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Dundee Utd
3.6
Heart Of Midlothian
3.6
Motherwell
3.5
Livingston
3.3
Rangers
3.3
Ross County
3.3
ST Johnstone
3.2
Dundee
3.2
ST Mirren
3.1
Hibernian
3.1
Aberdeen
2.8
Celtic
2.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.1
Heart Of Midlothian
25.8
Hibernian
25.3
ST Johnstone
25.0
Ross County
25.0
Motherwell
24.8
Livingston
24.6
Dundee
24.1
ST Mirren
23.9
Dundee Utd
23.7
Rangers
23.3
Celtic
22.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
53.4%
Under 9.5
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.5%
Under 3.5
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
77.9%
Under 21.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dundee
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.63
0.87
0.47
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.75
2.00
0.00
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.60
0.73
0.64
0.67
0.56
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.47
0.67
0.40
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.62
0.67
0.33
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
0.44
0.89
0.56
0.57
0.29
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dundee over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dundee
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.97
1.07
0.80
1.00
1.13
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (20)
1.20
0.80
1.18
0.91
1.22
0.67
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.83
0.67
0.33
0.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.47
0.60
0.93
0.27
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.25
0.33
0.67
1.20
0.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.62
0.38
0.44
0.44
0.86
0.29
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dundee over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dundee · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joe Westley50%
Drey Wright25%
Owen Bevan25%
Joe Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ethan Hamilton25%
Drey Wright25%
Ryan Finnigan25%
Joe Westley25%
Owen Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Bevan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alan Forrest25%
Joe Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Drey Wright0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Westley0%
Owen Bevan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Drey Wright0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Westley0%
Owen Bevan0%
Hibernian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martin Boyle67%
Callum Wright67%
Felix Passlack25%
Jason Kerr25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Josh Mulligan0%
Jamie McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Felix Passlack25%
Josh Mulligan25%
Ante Šuto25%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Martin Boyle0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jamie McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jamie McGrath33%
Felix Passlack25%
Josh Mulligan25%
Nathan Lowe25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Martin Boyle0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Martin Boyle33%
Jamie McGrath33%
Josh Mulligan25%
Nathan Lowe25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Felix Passlack0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Dundee's squad is €14m less valuable than Hibernian's (€5m vs €20m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Dundee's attack is €6m less valuable than Hibernian's (€1m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Dundee's midfield is €6m less valuable than Hibernian's (€2m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Dundee's defence is €2m less valuable than Hibernian's (€2m vs €5m).
Scotland: Premiership 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Rangers
Heart Of Midlothian
Livingston
Dundee Utd
Motherwell
ST Mirren
Aberdeen
Ross County
ST Johnstone