Defensive solidity will shape this encounter, with Dundee conceding 1.1 goals per game at home and Kilmarnock only 0.44 away. The model favours an away win, assigning a 49% chance to Kilmarnock, a 30% draw probability, and a 21% home win chance. The expected total is 2.2 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome that carries a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 14.4% chance of that result. Recent form suggests a narrative of teams seeking redemption after defeats, Dundee down 1-2 to Hibernian and Kilmarnock down 0-4 to Dundee United. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 goals at 82.6%, Under 5.5 cards at 80.1%, Over 19.5 fouls at 79.1%, and Over 2.5 cards at 74.6%. All probabilities are presented as percentages, and every suggested pick is listed with its exact figure.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Kilmarnock, failed to deliver, as the match finished 2-2, a draw that left the model’s pick wrong. The model had given the away side a 49% chance of victory, but the outcome was a stalemate. The final score of 2-2 matched the most likely scoreline of 0-1 (14.4%) and 1-1 (13.8%) in the model’s distribution, though the actual result was a draw. The model’s other selections were mixed: Under 3.5 goals missed, while Under 5.5 cards, Over 19.5 fouls and Over 2.5 cards all hit, with probabilities of 82.6%, 80.1%, 79.1% and 74.6% respectively. Both sides entered the game on a shaky run, each coming off a defeat, yet the match ended in a balanced 2-2 draw.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dundee win✗ Miss
20.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock win✗ Miss
48.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dundee
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.90
0.73
1.60
0.80
2.20
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
2.91
0.20
2.60
0.83
3.17
vs Similar (19)
0.89
1.32
1.00
1.10
0.78
1.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.07
1.64
0.93
1.12
1.19
vs Stronger (13)
1.31
1.54
1.50
0.83
1.14
2.14
vs Similar (17)
1.41
0.71
1.75
1.00
1.11
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.0%
Under 1.5
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.8%
Under 2.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
17.4%
Under 3.5
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.3%
No
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
14.4%
1-1
13.8%
0-0
12.7%
0-2
10.7%
1-2
8.6%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
5.0%
0-3
4.8%
Dundee goals ↓
Kilmarnock goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
14%
11%
4.8%
1.7%
1
7.9%
14%
8.6%
3.9%
1.3%
2
3.7%
5.0%
3.4%
1.6%
0.5%
3
1.0%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dundee goals (down), columns = Kilmarnock goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.29
Rangers
2.05
Aberdeen
1.76
Kilmarnock
1.76
Hibernian
1.42
ST Johnstone
1.37
Motherwell
1.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.34
Livingston
1.16
Hamilton
0.87
ST Mirren
0.84
Dundee
0.55
Dundee is 1.21 points worse than Kilmarnock in terms of average points per game (0.55 vs 1.76).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.16
Celtic
2.03
Aberdeen
1.50
Hibernian
1.34
Kilmarnock
1.32
Motherwell
1.21
Livingston
1.11
Heart Of Midlothian
1.11
ST Johnstone
1.00
ST Mirren
0.89
Dundee
0.82
Hamilton
0.74
Dundee is 0.50 goals worse than Kilmarnock in terms of goals scored per game (0.82 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.53
Rangers
0.71
Kilmarnock
0.82
Hibernian
1.03
Aberdeen
1.16
Livingston
1.16
ST Johnstone
1.26
Heart Of Midlothian
1.32
Motherwell
1.47
ST Mirren
1.74
Hamilton
1.97
Dundee
2.05
Dundee is 1.24 goals worse than Kilmarnock in terms of goals conceded per game (2.05 vs 0.82).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dundee
For 4.0 · Against 6.3 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.9 · Against 9.6 · Total 18.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kilmarnock
For 4.3 · Against 3.2 · Total 7.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 13.8 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundee
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
11.4
10.7
3.9
3.8
4.0
23.1
21.5
24.8
vs Stronger (20)
11.3
11.5
11.2
4.0
4.3
3.6
22.9
22.2
23.6
vs Similar (30)
10.8
11.3
10.4
3.8
3.4
4.2
23.3
21.0
25.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
60%
64%
60%
56%
64%
60%
52%
68%
% under line
38%
40%
36%
40%
44%
36%
40%
48%
32%
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.5
10.5
4.0
3.9
4.2
25.3
25.7
24.9
vs Stronger (20)
10.4
8.8
11.7
4.4
4.2
4.5
25.0
25.8
24.4
vs Similar (30)
8.9
8.3
9.6
3.8
3.7
3.9
25.4
25.6
25.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
38%
29%
46%
56%
54%
58%
76%
71%
81%
% under line
62%
71%
54%
44%
46%
42%
24%
29%
19%
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dundee
11.0
Rangers
11.0
Celtic
10.2
Hibernian
9.9
ST Mirren
9.9
Motherwell
9.9
ST Johnstone
9.8
Livingston
9.6
Kilmarnock
9.5
Hamilton
9.4
Aberdeen
9.3
Heart Of Midlothian
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rangers
4.6
Aberdeen
4.2
Hamilton
4.1
Kilmarnock
4.0
Heart Of Midlothian
4.0
Hibernian
3.9
Dundee
3.9
ST Mirren
3.8
ST Johnstone
3.7
Celtic
3.7
Livingston
3.4
Motherwell
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.3
Heart Of Midlothian
26.3
Rangers
26.3
Motherwell
25.9
Kilmarnock
25.3
Hamilton
25.2
Hibernian
24.6
Livingston
23.8
ST Mirren
23.8
Dundee
23.1
Celtic
23.0
ST Johnstone
22.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
56.6%
Under 9.5
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.6%
Under 3.5
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
64.8%
Under 21.5
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dundee
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.80
0.40
0.67
0.33
0.93
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
1.55
0.20
1.40
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.37
0.50
0.30
0.33
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.93
0.57
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
0.92
0.83
0.67
0.57
1.14
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.41
1.00
0.50
0.44
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dundee over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dundee
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.10
0.33
0.93
0.47
1.27
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
1.36
0.00
1.20
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.95
0.50
0.80
0.44
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.43
0.71
0.36
0.62
0.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
0.62
0.67
0.17
0.57
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.29
0.75
0.50
0.67
0.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dundee over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dundee · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joe Westley50%
Drey Wright25%
Owen Bevan25%
Joe Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ethan Hamilton25%
Drey Wright25%
Ryan Finnigan25%
Joe Westley25%
Owen Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Bevan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alan Forrest25%
Joe Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Drey Wright0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Westley0%
Owen Bevan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Drey Wright0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Westley0%
Owen Bevan0%
Kilmarnock · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Greg Kiltie33%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen33%
Joe Hugill33%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Bailey Rice0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joe Hugill67%
Tyreece John-Jules33%
Jamie Brandon33%
Bailey Rice33%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Lowery67%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Joe Hugill0%
Bailey Rice0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Hugill33%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Bailey Rice0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
Dundee's squad is €1m less valuable than Kilmarnock's (€5m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
Dundee's attack is €1m less valuable than Kilmarnock's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
Dundee and Kilmarnock have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
Dundee and Kilmarnock have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Scotland: Premiership 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Rangers
Aberdeen
Hibernian
ST Johnstone
Heart Of Midlothian
Motherwell
Livingston
ST Mirren