The contest between Dundee and St Johnstone is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. Home, Dundee have a 29% chance of triumph, a 30% chance of a draw and a 41% chance that St Johnstone will lift the trophy. The average number of goals expected is 2.4, and the most likely total is two, with a 27% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 14.2% chance. Dundee, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, average 1.0 goal scored and 1.88 conceded. St Johnstone, on the road against a comparable side, average 1.14 scored and 1.29 conceded. The suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 79.4%, Under 5.5 cards at 77.8%, Under 3.5 at 77.7%, Over 2.5 cards at 76.8%, Over 8.5 corners at 72.4% and Over 1.5 at 70.6%. Dundee’s recent form shows a win-loss-win-loss-win streak, while St Johnstone are after two straight defeats. The match remains finely balanced, with no clear favourite beyond the model’s pick.
Results analysis
The upset came early, with Dundee snatching a 2-1 win that left the pre-match favourite, ST Johnstone, on the wrong side of the table. The model had tipped an away victory at 41% and was wrong, as the home side claimed the win. Dundee’s recent run of wins and a 2-0 triumph over Dundee Utd set the tone, while ST Johnstone had suffered two straight defeats before this outing. The model’s selections performed unevenly: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 79.4%, Under 5.5 cards missed at 77.8%, Under 3.5 hit at 77.7%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 76.8%, Over 8.5 corners hit at 72.4%, and Over 1.5 hit at 70.6%. The final score of 2-1 confirmed the home win, contradicting the model’s prediction.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dundee win✓ Hit
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone win✗ Miss
41.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dundee
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.53
0.93
1.53
1.00
1.53
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
1.57
0.86
1.14
0.29
2.00
vs Similar (16)
1.31
1.50
1.00
1.88
1.62
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.50
0.67
1.60
1.00
1.40
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
1.87
0.43
2.29
0.88
1.50
vs Similar (15)
1.00
1.13
0.88
1.00
1.14
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.6%
Under 1.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.3%
Under 2.5
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.3%
Under 3.5
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.8%
No
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-1
10.7%
0-0
10.3%
1-2
8.6%
1-0
8.4%
0-2
8.0%
2-1 ✓
6.9%
2-0
5.2%
Dundee goals ↓
ST Johnstone goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
11%
8.0%
3.6%
1.2%
1
8.4%
14%
8.6%
3.8%
1.3%
2
5.2%
6.9%
4.6%
2.1%
0.7%
3
1.9%
2.5%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dundee goals (down), columns = ST Johnstone goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Aberdeen
1.92
Rangers
1.84
Hibernian
1.76
Kilmarnock
1.55
Heart Of Midlothian
1.29
Motherwell
1.26
ST Johnstone
1.21
Dundee
1.03
Partick
0.87
Hamilton
0.87
Ross County
0.76
Dundee is 0.18 points worse than ST Johnstone in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Hibernian
1.63
Aberdeen
1.47
Kilmarnock
1.29
Hamilton
1.24
Motherwell
1.13
ST Johnstone
1.11
Ross County
1.05
Heart Of Midlothian
1.03
Dundee
0.95
Partick
0.82
Dundee is 0.16 goals worse than ST Johnstone in terms of goals scored per game (0.95 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.66
Aberdeen
0.97
Heart Of Midlothian
1.03
Hibernian
1.21
Kilmarnock
1.24
Motherwell
1.29
Rangers
1.32
ST Johnstone
1.39
Dundee
1.50
Partick
1.61
Ross County
1.63
Hamilton
1.79
Dundee is 0.11 goals worse than ST Johnstone in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dundee
For 5.1 · Against 5.7 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 13.4 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Johnstone
For 5.3 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 11.9 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundee
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
12.1
10.4
3.9
4.1
3.8
24.6
23.5
25.6
vs Stronger (20)
12.1
13.6
10.6
3.6
4.3
3.0
22.4
21.3
23.5
vs Similar (28)
10.5
10.8
10.2
4.2
4.2
4.2
26.2
25.3
26.9
vs Weaker (2)
12.5
14.0
11.0
3.5
2.0
5.0
24.5
23.0
26.0
% over line
72%
71%
73%
58%
58%
58%
72%
67%
77%
% under line
28%
29%
27%
42%
42%
42%
28%
33%
23%
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.3
9.8
3.8
3.7
3.9
22.9
22.5
23.3
vs Stronger (23)
10.5
11.2
9.7
4.3
3.8
5.0
22.9
22.8
23.1
vs Similar (26)
9.8
9.5
10.2
3.3
3.6
3.0
22.9
22.2
23.7
vs Weaker (1)
7.0
-
7.0
2.0
-
2.0
21.0
-
21.0
% over line
50%
58%
42%
60%
58%
62%
52%
50%
54%
% under line
50%
42%
58%
40%
42%
38%
48%
50%
46%
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dundee
11.2
Hibernian
11.0
Rangers
10.8
Hamilton
10.7
Kilmarnock
10.5
Motherwell
10.2
ST Johnstone
10.1
Ross County
9.9
Aberdeen
9.7
Heart Of Midlothian
9.5
Celtic
9.4
Partick
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hibernian
4.4
Rangers
4.2
Hamilton
4.0
Heart Of Midlothian
4.0
Dundee
3.9
Kilmarnock
3.9
ST Johnstone
3.8
Aberdeen
3.7
Celtic
3.7
Ross County
3.7
Motherwell
3.6
Partick
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
25.6
Motherwell
25.5
Rangers
25.0
Hamilton
24.9
Hibernian
24.8
Dundee
24.6
Kilmarnock
24.0
Ross County
24.0
Aberdeen
23.9
ST Johnstone
22.9
Celtic
22.1
Partick
21.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.7%
Under 9.5
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
57.5%
Under 3.5
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
65.1%
Under 21.5
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dundee
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.40
0.60
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.64
0.43
0.57
0.14
0.71
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.50
0.38
0.62
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.67
0.27
0.80
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (15)
0.13
0.87
0.00
1.14
0.25
0.62
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.47
0.50
0.50
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dundee over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dundee
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.97
0.53
0.93
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.93
0.43
0.57
0.14
1.29
vs Similar (16)
0.81
1.00
0.62
1.25
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.83
0.40
0.80
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (15)
0.53
1.00
0.43
1.14
0.62
0.88
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.67
0.38
0.50
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dundee over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dundee · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Drey Wright33%
Joe Westley33%
Owen Bevan33%
Joe Bevan33%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ethan Hamilton33%
Ryan Finnigan33%
Joe Westley33%
Owen Bevan33%
Brad Halliday0%
Drey Wright0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Bevan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alan Forrest33%
Joe Bevan33%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Drey Wright0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Westley0%
Owen Bevan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Bevan33%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Drey Wright0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Westley0%
Owen Bevan0%
ST Johnstone · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ruari Paton33%
Cheick Diabate33%
Kai Fotheringham33%
Josh Fowler33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Jamie Gullan0%
Reece McAlear0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Liam Smith33%
Jamie Gullan33%
Cheick Diabate33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Josh Fowler0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sam Stanton33%
Jamie Gullan33%
Josh Fowler33%
Jason Holt0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Cheick Diabate0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jamie Gullan33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Cheick Diabate0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Josh Fowler0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
KIL (24)
€7m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
PAR (20)
€3m
RC (11)
€1m
Dundee and ST Johnstone have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Dundee's attack is €1m less valuable than ST Johnstone's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Dundee and ST Johnstone have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
PAR (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Dundee and ST Johnstone have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Scotland: Premiership 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Aberdeen
Rangers
Hibernian
Kilmarnock
Heart Of Midlothian
Motherwell
Partick
Ross County