Dundee vs ST Johnstone Result & Analysis

Defensive solidity will be the headline, with Dundee’s 1.5 goals conceded per game and ST Johnstone’s 1.29 average at home suggesting a tight affair. The model favours a home win, with a 42% chance, a 31% draw, and a 27% away win. The expected total of 2.2 goals points to a low-scoring game, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.4% probability. Dundee’s 0.62 goals per match at home and ST Johnstone’s 0.71 away against similar opposition underline the balanced attack. The suggested picks include an 82.6% chance of over 19.5 fouls, an 81.0% chance of under 3.5 goals, a 78.4% chance of under 5.5 cards, a 76.3% chance of over 2.5 cards, and a 73.9% chance of over 8.5 corners. These selections reflect the model’s view that the game will be tight, with both sides likely to score but not many goals overall.

The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, Dundee, failed to secure the win, ending the home side’s winning streak with a 1-1 draw. The model had picked a home win with a 42% probability, but this call was wrong. The match delivered on every other selection: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 82.6%, Under 3.5 hit at 81.0%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 78.4%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 76.3%, and Over 8.5 corners hit at 73.9%. Dundee’s recent form had them on a win, while St Johnstone were coming off two defeats, yet the scoreline reflected a balanced contest.