Dundela’s recent string of losses has left the home side struggling to find rhythm, while Glenavon FC, fresh from a draw, shows a more balanced form. The model rates Glenavon as the clear favourite, assigning a 64 % chance of victory, 20 % for a draw and 15 % for a Dundela win. The expected total of 3.4 goals points to a moderately high-scoring encounter, and the most likely scoreline is 1-2 for Glenavon, with a 9.7 % probability. Dundela’s home form against weaker opponents sees them averaging 1.29 goals scored and conceding 2.0, whereas Glenavon’s away form against stronger teams yields 1.17 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.6 %), Under 6.5 (94.3 %), Away +2 handicap (94.2 %), Home under 2.5 goals (90.5 %), Away over 0.5 goals (90.1 %), Under 5.5 (87.2 %) and Over 1.5 (86.1 %). These picks reflect the predicted flow of the match and the teams’ recent performances.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dundela win
15.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC win
64.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dundela
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.97
1.29
1.93
1.19
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.12
1.81
1.14
2.14
1.11
1.56
vs Weaker (14)
1.36
2.14
1.43
1.71
1.29
2.57
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glenavon FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.77
1.62
1.56
1.50
2.00
vs Stronger (11)
1.18
2.55
1.29
2.00
1.00
3.50
vs Similar (17)
1.71
1.29
1.75
1.25
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
3.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundela) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.1%
Under 1.5
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.9%
Under 2.5
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.0%
Under 3.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.1%
No
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.7%
1-1
9.2%
0-2
9.1%
1-3
7.5%
0-3
7.0%
0-1
7.0%
2-2
5.2%
2-1
4.5%
Dundela goals ↓
Glenavon FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
7.0%
9.1%
7.0%
4.1%
1
2.8%
9.2%
9.7%
7.5%
4.4%
2
1.9%
4.5%
5.2%
4.0%
2.3%
3
0.7%
1.6%
1.9%
1.4%
0.8%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dundela goals (down), columns = Glenavon FC goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Dundela is 1.40 points worse than Glenavon FC in terms of average points per game (0.60 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Dundela is 1.40 goals worse than Glenavon FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 2.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Dundela is 0.40 goals worse than Glenavon FC in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dundela or Draw
35.5%
Avg Implied -
15%
20%
64%
covers Dundela + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dundela or Glenavon FC
79.7%
Avg Implied -
15%
20%
64%
covers Dundela + Glenavon FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Glenavon FC
84.7%
Avg Implied -
15%
20%
64%
covers Draw + Glenavon FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dundela over/under 0.5
Over
65.7%
Under
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 1.5
Over
29.0%
Under
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 2.5
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5
Over
90.2%
Under
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5
Over
67.4%
Under
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5
Over
41.0%
Under
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 3.5
Over
20.5%
Under
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dundela, so a minus line means Dundela give that many goals of a start and Glenavon FC receive them. At -1, Dundela must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dundela win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dundela)
Dundela -2
1.6%
Draw -2
4.1%
Glenavon FC +2
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dundela)
Dundela -1
5.7%
Draw -1
9.5%
Glenavon FC +1
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dundela)
Dundela +1
35.5%
Draw +1
21.6%
Glenavon FC -1
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dundela)
Dundela +2
57.2%
Draw +2
19.3%
Glenavon FC -2
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dundela
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.71
0.57
0.38
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.69
0.57
1.00
0.22
0.44
vs Weaker (14)
0.71
0.71
0.86
0.14
0.57
1.29
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glenavon FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.75
0.56
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
0.82
0.43
0.57
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.76
0.88
0.62
0.33
0.89
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundela) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.4%
Under 0.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.9%
Under 1.5
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.9%
Under 2.5
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dundela over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.1%
Under
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.1%
Under
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
60.5%
Under
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.6%
Under
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dundela
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.27
0.57
1.36
0.81
1.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.75
1.12
0.57
1.14
0.89
1.11
vs Weaker (14)
0.64
1.43
0.57
1.57
0.71
1.29
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glenavon FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.00
0.88
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.73
0.86
1.43
0.25
2.25
vs Similar (17)
1.12
0.53
0.88
0.62
1.33
0.44
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundela) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
85.8%
Under 0.5
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.1%
Under 1.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.2%
Under 2.5
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dundela over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.5%
Under
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.8%
Under
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
62.1%
Under
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
28.0%
Under
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →