This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.27
1.19
0.81
1.00
1.79
vs Stronger (13)
1.08
1.23
1.33
0.50
0.86
1.86
vs Similar (17)
1.12
1.29
1.10
1.00
1.14
1.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.8%
Under 1.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.9%
@ 1.94+4.5%
Under 2.5
47.1%
@ 1.82-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.6%
Under 3.5
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.3%
No
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
2-0
10.1%
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.9%
0-0
7.2%
3-0
6.1%
3-1
6.0%
1-2
5.3%
Dunfermline goals ↓
Arbroath goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
4.9%
2.9%
1.0%
0.2%
1
10%
12%
5.3%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.9%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
6.1%
6.0%
2.9%
1.0%
0.2%
4
2.8%
2.7%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dunfermline goals (down), columns = Arbroath goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Kilmarnock
1.86
Arbroath
1.81
Inverness CT
1.64
Partick
1.44
Raith Rvs
1.39
Hamilton
1.17
Morton
1.11
Ayr
1.08
Dunfermline
0.97
Queen of Sth
0.92
Dunfermline is 0.83 points worse than Arbroath in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.81).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Arbroath
1.50
Inverness CT
1.47
Kilmarnock
1.39
Partick
1.28
Raith Rvs
1.22
Ayr
1.08
Hamilton
1.06
Dunfermline
1.00
Queen of Sth
1.00
Morton
1.00
Dunfermline is 0.50 goals worse than Arbroath in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.50).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kilmarnock
0.75
Arbroath
0.78
Inverness CT
0.94
Partick
1.11
Raith Rvs
1.22
Morton
1.31
Ayr
1.44
Dunfermline
1.47
Hamilton
1.47
Queen of Sth
1.50
Dunfermline is 0.69 goals worse than Arbroath in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 0.78).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Dunfermline
For 5.7 · Against 5.5 · Total 11.2
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 0.9 · Total 2.4
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 9.6 · Total 21.0
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arbroath
For 5.5 · Against 3.4 · Total 8.9
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.3
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 12.8 · Total 26.1
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dunfermline
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
10.0
12.0
3.0
3.1
3.0
20.0
19.1
20.9
vs Stronger (3)
11.3
10.0
14.0
3.7
5.0
1.0
27.0
26.5
28.0
vs Similar (42)
11.0
10.0
12.0
2.9
2.7
3.0
19.8
18.7
20.9
vs Weaker (5)
10.8
10.3
11.5
4.0
4.7
3.0
17.4
17.3
17.5
% over line
74%
62%
88%
38%
42%
33%
34%
23%
46%
% under line
26%
38%
12%
62%
58%
67%
66%
77%
54%
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.7
9.2
3.2
3.0
3.5
23.0
22.2
23.9
vs Stronger (19)
10.1
11.1
9.2
3.5
3.1
3.8
23.6
21.6
25.5
vs Similar (31)
9.1
9.0
9.2
3.1
2.9
3.3
22.6
22.5
22.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
54%
54%
46%
35%
58%
58%
54%
62%
% under line
46%
46%
46%
54%
65%
42%
42%
46%
38%
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dunfermline
11.0
Raith Rvs
10.6
Inverness CT
10.5
Partick
10.4
Hamilton
10.4
Kilmarnock
10.4
Morton
10.2
Ayr
10.1
Queen of Sth
10.0
Arbroath
9.5
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Raith Rvs
4.1
Kilmarnock
3.7
Ayr
3.5
Inverness CT
3.3
Queen of Sth
3.2
Arbroath
3.2
Hamilton
3.1
Dunfermline
3.0
Partick
3.0
Morton
3.0
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Kilmarnock
25.6
Hamilton
24.5
Arbroath
23.0
Raith Rvs
22.8
Inverness CT
22.6
Ayr
21.8
Queen of Sth
20.6
Morton
20.1
Dunfermline
20.0
Partick
19.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
53.2%
Under 9.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.8%
Under 3.5
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
61.1%
Under 21.5
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dunfermline
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.60
0.47
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.71
0.73
0.55
0.38
0.85
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.69
0.38
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
0.69
0.83
0.17
0.29
1.14
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.41
0.60
0.50
0.57
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dunfermline
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.73
1.00
0.60
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.92
0.75
1.00
0.64
0.85
0.85
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.50
0.44
0.57
1.07
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
0.54
0.50
0.33
0.57
0.71
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.88
0.50
0.50
0.57
1.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 4.5 cards
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KIL (24)
€7m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
Dunfermline's squad is €3m more valuable than Arbroath's (€4m vs €1m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KIL (9)
€3m
DUN (9)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
Dunfermline's attack is €1m more valuable than Arbroath's (€2m vs €0m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KIL (5)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
Dunfermline and Arbroath have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (13)
€2m
PAR (8)
€1m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Dunfermline's defence is €2m more valuable than Arbroath's (€2m vs €0m).
Scotland: Championship 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kilmarnock
Inverness CT
Partick
Morton