This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Ayr
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.43
1.07
0.80
1.40
2.07
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
5.00
-
-
3.00
5.00
vs Similar (24)
1.25
1.33
1.08
0.85
1.45
1.91
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
1.20
1.00
0.50
0.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
86.0%
Under 1.5
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
65.6%
@ 1.78+13.1%
Under 2.5
34.4%
@ 1.97-13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.7%
Under 3.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
65.1%
No
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
7.1%
3-1
6.5%
2-2
6.4%
1-2
6.2%
1-0
6.0%
3-0
4.8%
Dunfermline goals ↓
Ayr goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
3.6%
3.0%
1.4%
0.5%
1
6.0%
10%
6.2%
2.8%
0.9%
2
7.1%
9.5%
6.4%
2.8%
0.9%
3
4.8%
6.5%
4.3%
1.9%
0.6%
4
2.5%
3.3%
2.2%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dunfermline goals (down), columns = Ayr goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Dundee
1.67
Raith Rvs
1.59
Dunfermline
1.44
Inverness CT
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.19
Arbroath
1.11
Morton
1.07
Ayr
1.07
Alloa
0.81
Dunfermline is 0.37 points better than Ayr in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.07).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.33
Dundee
1.81
Raith Rvs
1.67
Dunfermline
1.41
Queen of Sth
1.41
Inverness CT
1.33
Ayr
1.15
Alloa
1.11
Arbroath
1.04
Morton
0.81
Dunfermline is 0.26 goals better than Ayr in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.15).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Inverness CT
1.15
Morton
1.22
Dunfermline
1.26
Arbroath
1.26
Raith Rvs
1.33
Ayr
1.37
Dundee
1.48
Queen of Sth
1.89
Alloa
2.22
Dunfermline is 0.11 goals better than Ayr in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.37).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Dunfermline
For 5.3 · Against 6.1 · Total 11.4
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.3
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 12.7 · Total 23.3
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
A
Ayr
For 4.5 · Against 7.7 · Total 12.2
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.0
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 9.6 · Total 21.9
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dunfermline
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
9.6
11.9
3.2
3.7
2.7
20.2
19.8
20.6
vs Stronger (1)
12.0
12.0
-
8.0
8.0
-
27.0
27.0
-
vs Similar (43)
10.7
9.4
12.1
3.1
3.5
2.8
20.4
19.7
21.0
vs Weaker (6)
10.3
10.3
10.3
3.0
4.0
2.0
17.8
18.0
17.7
% over line
66%
54%
79%
48%
62%
33%
36%
31%
42%
% under line
34%
46%
21%
52%
38%
67%
64%
69%
58%
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Ayr
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
11.4
9.3
3.2
3.3
3.0
21.3
22.8
19.8
vs Stronger (1)
11.0
-
11.0
0.0
-
0.0
18.0
-
18.0
vs Similar (41)
10.2
11.6
8.5
3.2
3.2
3.3
21.2
22.6
19.6
vs Weaker (8)
11.5
10.2
12.8
3.1
3.5
2.8
22.4
24.0
20.8
% over line
56%
69%
42%
44%
42%
46%
50%
62%
38%
% under line
44%
31%
58%
56%
58%
54%
50%
38%
62%
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Alloa
11.8
Inverness CT
11.3
Queen of Sth
10.9
Morton
10.8
Dunfermline
10.7
Heart Of Midlothian
10.5
Ayr
10.4
Raith Rvs
10.0
Dundee
10.0
Arbroath
9.9
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Heart Of Midlothian
4.1
Raith Rvs
3.5
Arbroath
3.4
Dundee
3.4
Dunfermline
3.2
Ayr
3.2
Inverness CT
3.1
Queen of Sth
2.9
Morton
2.9
Alloa
2.6
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
27.2
Dundee
24.8
Raith Rvs
21.9
Arbroath
21.9
Alloa
21.5
Ayr
21.3
Morton
20.3
Dunfermline
20.2
Inverness CT
20.2
Queen of Sth
19.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.9%
Under 9.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.0%
Under 3.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
45.0%
Under 21.5
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dunfermline
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.80
0.47
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.64
0.92
0.42
0.46
0.85
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Ayr
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.80
0.33
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.50
0.85
0.38
0.64
0.64
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
0.60
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dunfermline
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.63
1.13
0.53
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.04
0.60
1.00
0.50
1.08
0.69
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
1.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Ayr
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.27
0.47
0.93
1.33
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
4.00
-
-
3.00
4.00
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.83
0.23
0.46
0.82
1.27
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 4.5 cards
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: Championship 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dunfermline
Heart Of Midlothian
Dundee
Inverness CT
Arbroath
Morton