Dunfermline vs Ayr Utd Result & Analysis

Date: 08/08/2026

Time: 14:00

Final 1-1

Dunfermline

42%

30%

29%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Ayr Utd

Scotland: Championship

Referee: -

1 Model Analysis 2 Goal Analysis 3 Team Strengths Analysis 4 Props Analysis 5 Double Chance 6 Home & Away Over/Under 7 Handicap 8 Half Time Goals O/U 9 Half Time Home & Away O/U 10 Second Half Goals O/U 11 Second Half Home & Away O/U

12 Top picks for this game 14 Squad value 15 Games History 16 Overall Statistics 17 League Table

Match preview & prediction

Dunfermline is expected to take the three points at home against Ayr Utd. This match is likely to be a closely contested, low-scoring affair with 2.4 goals expected on average. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, which has a 14.1% probability.

Dunfermline has been scoring an average of 2.5 goals at home, where they tend to concede 1.5 goals. Meanwhile, Ayr Utd has been scoring 1.33 goals away from home, but conceding 1.78 goals to stronger opponents. The model's selection is the Home win, with a 42% probability. The away win percentage stands at 29%. The draw percentage is 30%.

The model suggests taking the Under 3.5, which has a 77.3% probability. Additionally, the model suggests taking the Over 1.5, with a 71% probability.

Results analysis

A surprise draw at the weekend, as Dunfermline's home form continued to extend their run, with a 1-1 result against Ayr Utd. The win was not secured, however, as the final score was evenly split. The pre-match favourite, Dunfermline, did not come through, with the model's selection of Home win being incorrect. The model's call was wrong, with a pre-match probability of 42%. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 77.3%, while Over 1.5 goals also hit, with a probability of 71.0%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dunfermline win✗ Miss

41.6%

Avg Implied 44.8% · @ 2.04

Edge

-3.1%

Best 5 market prices

888Sport

2.10

William Hil

2.10

10Bet

2.08

Dafabet

2.08

Pinnacle

2.08

Draw✓ Hit

29.7%

Avg Implied 28.7% · @ 3.18

Edge

+1.0%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

3.31

Unibet

3.30

Betfair

3.30

Bet365

3.25

10Bet

3.25

Ayr Utd win✗ Miss

28.6%

Avg Implied 26.5% · @ 3.45

Edge

+2.1%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

3.73

Unibet

3.70

1xBet

3.58

Dafabet

3.55

Marathonbet

3.50

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Dunfermline

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.4

Avg scored

1.4

Avg conceded

1.0

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.63	0.90	2.00	0.47	1.27	1.33
vs Stronger (2)	2.00	1.50	3.00	0.00	1.00	3.00
vs Similar (26)	1.58	0.88	1.77	0.46	1.38	1.31
vs Weaker (2)	2.00	0.50	4.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
Clean sheet %	57% (+27pp vs league)

This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ayr Utd

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.6

Avg scored

1.5

Avg conceded

1.1

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.27	1.33	1.25	1.00	1.29	1.71
vs Stronger (1)	3.00	0.00	3.00	0.00	-	-
vs Similar (27)	1.11	1.41	1.07	1.14	1.15	1.69
vs Weaker (2)	2.50	1.00	2.00	0.00	3.00	2.00
Clean sheet %	27% (-3pp vs league)

This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

71.0%

@ 1.35+2.1%

Under 1.5

29.0%

@ 2.98-2.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.37

Unibet

1.36

888Sport

1.36

Betfair

1.36

10Bet

1.36

Under

Pinnacle

3.19

Betfair

3.10

BetVictor

3.00

Bet365

3.00

10Bet

3.00

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

43.7%

@ 2.10-0.7%

Under 2.5

56.3%

@ 1.68+0.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

2.15

Bet365

2.15

Pinnacle

2.13

888Sport

2.10

10Bet

2.10

Under

Pinnacle

1.73

Betano

1.72

10Bet

1.70

Marathonbet

1.68

1xBet

1.68

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under

Over 3.5

22.7%

@ 3.76-2.0%

Under 3.5

77.3%

@ 1.23+2.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

4.10

BetVictor

4.00

888Sport

3.90

Pinnacle

3.80

Unibet

3.75

Under

Betano

1.26

Pinnacle

1.26

Bet365

1.25

10Bet

1.25

Superbet

1.24

Both teams to scoreActual: Yes

Yes

50.1%

@ 1.86+0.4%

49.9%

@ 1.84-0.4%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

Bet365

1.91

Betfair

1.90

Unibet

1.89

Betano

1.85

William Hil

1.85

Betfair

1.87

Superbet

1.87

1xBet

1.86

888Sport

1.85

William Hil

1.85

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1 ✓

14.1%@ 5.86+6.6%

1-0

10.6%@ 6.27+3.6%

0-0

10.1%@ 7.99+4.6%

2-1

8.7%@ 8.32+3.4%

0-1

8.2%@ 8.77+3.2%

2-0

8.0%@ 8.80+3.0%

1-2

6.9%@ 11.23+3.0%

0-2

5.1%@ 15.78+2.3%

Dunfermline goals ↓

	Ayr Utd goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	10%	8.2%	5.1%	1.8%	0.5%
1	11%	14%	6.9%	2.5%	0.7%
2	8.0%	8.7%	4.7%	1.7%	0.5%
3	3.6%	3.9%	2.1%	0.8%	0.2%
4	1.2%	1.3%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dunfermline goals (down), columns = Ayr Utd goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Partick

1.85

Livingston

1.73

Dunfermline

1.54

Arbroath

1.48

Raith Rovers

1.25

Stenhousemuir

1.25

Queen's Park

1.14

Ayr Utd

1.08

Morton

1.04

Inverness CT

0.99

Dunfermline is 0.46 points better than Ayr Utd in terms of average points per game (1.54 vs 1.08).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Livingston

1.52

Partick

1.50

Dunfermline

1.44

Arbroath

1.25

Stenhousemuir

1.25

Raith Rovers

1.19

Ayr Utd

1.06

Morton

1.00

Queen's Park

0.97

Inverness CT

0.87

Dunfermline is 0.38 goals better than Ayr Utd in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.06).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Livingston

0.91

Partick

0.96

Stenhousemuir

1.00

Dunfermline

1.02

Arbroath

1.15

Raith Rovers

1.17

Ayr Utd

1.31

Queen's Park

1.33

Morton

1.38

Inverness CT

1.59

Dunfermline is 0.28 goals better than Ayr Utd in terms of goals conceded per game (1.02 vs 1.31).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.