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Dunfermline vs Inverness CT Result & Analysis

Date: 01/09/2018
Time: 00:00
Final 0-3
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Vs
37%
30%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Scotland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Dunfermline win✗ Miss
37.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT win✓ Hit
32.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D31W10W21W40W22D40W32W13L14LA·DUN24/03H·QUE31/03H·LIV03/04A·FAL07/04H·BRE14/04A·INV21/04H·DUM28/04A·DUN04/08H·ROS11/08A·AYR25/08
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.171.801.071.071.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.381.251.671.171.081.33
vs Weaker (6)1.670.832.330.671.001.00
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W10W51W10W22D10W30W10W00D22DA·QUE07/04H·FAL10/04H·DUM14/04A·DUM18/04H·DUN21/04A·LIV24/04A·MOR28/04A·FAL04/08H·AYR11/08H·ALL25/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.530.771.940.881.070.64
vs Stronger (21)1.190.811.551.000.800.60
vs Similar (6)2.330.832.670.672.001.00
vs Weaker (3)2.330.333.000.501.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.9%
Under 1.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.5%
Under 2.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.5%
Under 3.5
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.5%
No
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-0
10.2%
1-0
9.9%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.1%
0-2
6.0%
Dunfermline goals ↓
Inverness CT goals →
01234
010%9.0%6.0%2.3%0.7%
19.9%14%7.5%2.9%0.8%
27.1%8.2%4.7%1.8%0.5%
33.0%3.5%2.0%0.8%0.2%
40.9%1.1%0.6%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dunfermline goals (down), columns = Inverness CT goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ross County
1.97
Dundee Utd
1.81
Inverness CT
1.56
Ayr
1.50
Morton
1.28
Partick
1.19
Dunfermline
1.14
Alloa
1.08
Falkirk
1.06
Queen of Sth
1.06
Dunfermline is 0.42 points worse than Inverness CT in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.56).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Ross County
1.75
Ayr
1.39
Dundee Utd
1.36
Inverness CT
1.33
Partick
1.19
Queen of Sth
1.14
Alloa
1.08
Falkirk
1.03
Morton
1.00
Dunfermline
0.92
Dunfermline is 0.42 goals worse than Inverness CT in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 1.33).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Ross County
0.94
Ayr
1.06
Dunfermline
1.11
Dundee Utd
1.11
Inverness CT
1.11
Morton
1.25
Queen of Sth
1.33
Falkirk
1.36
Partick
1.44
Alloa
1.47
Dunfermline and Inverness CT are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.11).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

DunfermlineDunfermline

For 4.9 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.0

ðŸšĐ Corners

1404375625555168196543712851061410117A·AYRH·ROSA·DUNH·DUMA·INVH·BREA·FALH·LIVH·QUEA·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.2

ðŸŸĻ Cards

603213212314222313351516404A·AYRH·ROSA·DUNH·DUMA·INVH·BREA·FALH·LIVH·QUEA·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 10.1 · Total 19.5

⚠ïļ Fouls

280139121114131058104155111216451262223271518191628918A·AYRH·ROSA·DUNH·DUMA·INVH·BREA·FALH·LIVH·QUEA·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Inverness CTInverness CT

For 5.8 · Against 4.0 · Total 9.8

ðŸšĐ Corners

17010361473251255121646331371151710136106H·ALLH·AYRA·FALA·MORA·LIVH·DUNA·DUMH·DUMH·FALA·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.2

ðŸŸĻ Cards

502122311232221311123443054423H·ALLH·AYRA·FALA·MORA·LIVH·DUNA·DUMH·DUMH·FALA·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 8.8 · Total 20.0

⚠ïļ Fouls

240168166158111081110810759121091124222321191817142220H·ALLH·AYRA·FALA·MORA·LIVH·DUNA·DUMH·DUMH·FALA·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DunfermlineDunfermline

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.09.710.33.02.53.622.522.422.6
vs Stronger (1)---0.00.0----
vs Similar (40)10.110.110.13.02.53.622.322.022.6
vs Weaker (9)9.68.211.03.33.53.223.423.823.0
% over line62%53%70%44%36%52%64%68%60%
% under line38%47%30%56%64%48%36%32%40%
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.29.710.63.63.83.422.922.623.3
vs Stronger (38)10.59.611.43.64.32.923.723.923.4
vs Similar (8)9.210.58.03.11.54.822.021.522.5
vs Weaker (4)9.09.09.04.23.55.018.012.523.5
% over line56%56%56%48%56%40%62%64%60%
% under line44%44%44%52%44%60%38%36%40%
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Morton
11.3
Dundee Utd
11.1
Ayr
10.8
Falkirk
10.3
Inverness CT
10.2
Alloa
10.1
Ross County
10.0
Dunfermline
10.0
Queen of Sth
9.3
Partick
9.3

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Dundee Utd
4.2
Dunfermline
3.9
Ross County
3.8
Ayr
3.6
Falkirk
3.6
Inverness CT
3.6
Morton
3.4
Queen of Sth
3.3
Partick
3.0
Alloa
3.0

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Ross County
23.9
Inverness CT
22.9
Morton
22.8
Dunfermline
22.5
Dundee Utd
22.2
Queen of Sth
22.0
Falkirk
21.9
Alloa
21.6
Ayr
21.4
Partick
20.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.6%
Under 9.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.3%
Under 3.5
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
47.4%
Under 21.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DunfermlineDunfermline

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D20W10W10W20W11D30W01L12L03LA·DUN24/03H·QUE31/03H·LIV03/04A·FAL07/04H·BRE14/04A·INV21/04H·DUM28/04A·DUN04/08H·ROS11/08A·AYR25/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.531.070.400.470.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.710.581.000.500.420.67
vs Weaker (6)1.000.331.330.000.670.67
Clean sheet %63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D21W00D11D00D20W10W00D11DA·QUE07/04H·FAL10/04H·DUM14/04A·DUM18/04H·DUN21/04A·LIV24/04A·MOR28/04A·FAL04/08H·AYR11/08H·ALL25/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.331.060.310.640.36
vs Stronger (21)0.760.240.910.270.600.20
vs Similar (6)1.170.671.330.331.001.00
vs Weaker (3)1.000.331.500.500.000.00
Clean sheet %70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DunfermlineDunfermline

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D11D00D11D20W11D10W31W01L11DA·DUN24/03H·QUE31/03H·LIV03/04A·FAL07/04H·BRE14/04A·INV21/04H·DUM28/04A·DUN04/08H·ROS11/08A·AYR25/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.630.730.670.600.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.670.670.670.670.670.67
vs Weaker (6)0.670.501.000.670.330.33
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W30W10W11D10W10W00D00D11DA·QUE07/04H·FAL10/04H·DUM14/04A·DUM18/04H·DUN21/04A·LIV24/04A·MOR28/04A·FAL04/08H·AYR11/08H·ALL25/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.430.880.560.430.29
vs Stronger (21)0.430.570.640.730.200.40
vs Similar (6)1.170.171.330.331.000.00
vs Weaker (3)1.330.001.500.001.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards91.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls81.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards80.8%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.577.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners71.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.570.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (22)
€11m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
Dunfermline's squad is €4m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€4m vs €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (7)
€4m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
Dunfermline's attack is €1m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€2m vs €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (6)
€3m
PAR (6)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
Dunfermline and Inverness CT have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
DUN (13)
€2m
PAR (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
MOR (6)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Dunfermline's defence is €2m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€2m vs €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
DUN wins
1
Draws
1
IC wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dunfermline vs Inverness CT · H/A from DUN
DateH/AGameScore
21/04/18AInverness CT Vs DUN2-2
13/03/18HDUN Vs Inverness CT1-0
28/10/17AInverness CT Vs DUN1-0
12/08/17HDUN Vs Inverness CT5-1

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/08/18AAyr Vs DUN4-1
11/08/18HDUN Vs Ross County1-3
04/08/18ADundee Utd Vs DUN2-3
28/04/18HDUN Vs Dumbarton4-0
21/04/18AInverness CT Vs DUN2-2
14/04/18HDUN Vs Brechin4-0
07/04/18AFalkirk Vs DUN1-2
03/04/18HDUN Vs Livingston1-0
31/03/18HDUN Vs Queen of Sth3-1
24/03/18ADundee Utd Vs DUN1-1

Inverness CTInverness CT

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/08/18HIC Vs Alloa2-2
11/08/18HIC Vs Ayr0-0
04/08/18AFalkirk Vs IC0-1
28/04/18AMorton Vs IC0-3
24/04/18ALivingston Vs IC0-1
21/04/18HIC Vs Dunfermline2-2
18/04/18ADumbarton Vs IC0-1
14/04/18HIC Vs Dumbarton5-1
10/04/18HIC Vs Falkirk1-0
07/04/18AQueen of Sth Vs IC0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLL1.60
HomeWWWWL1.80
AwayDWDWL1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%52%36%
AVG goals2.542.922.16
Over 1.5 %68%76%60%
Over 2.5 %50%60%40%
Over 3.5 %32%44%20%
Scored1.521.841.20
Conceded1.021.080.96
BTTS50%60%40%
Clean Sheet40%36%44%
Corners10.039.7410.30
Cards3.903.324.45
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDD1.48
HomeWWDDD1.68
AwayWWWWW1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%44%36%
AVG goals2.562.682.44
Over 1.5 %66%72%60%
Over 2.5 %44%48%40%
Over 3.5 %34%40%28%
Scored1.381.601.16
Conceded1.181.081.28
BTTS44%52%36%
Clean Sheet38%32%44%
Corners10.189.7210.64
Cards3.583.803.36

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Ross CountyRoss County3671
58%
2.0
6334+29
2.7
72%
50%
31%
10.3
64%
4.1
58%
24.0
67%
1
0011.80.9
-
2Dundee UtdDundee Utd3665
53%
1.8
4940+9
2.5
78%
39%
14%
10.9
58%
4.2
69%
22.8
58%
11
4341.41.1
-
3Inverness CTInverness CT3656
39%
1.6
4840+8
2.4
64%
50%
28%
11.4
72%
3.8
56%
21.5
53%
1
0001.31.1
-
4
A
Ayr
3654
42%
1.5
5038+12
2.4
61%
39%
28%
9.0
39%
3.2
44%
22.0
56%
0
0001.41.1
-
5MortonMorton3646
31%
1.3
3645-9
2.2
69%
39%
14%
10.6
58%
3.5
53%
22.4
58%
1
0001.01.2
-
6PartickPartick3643
33%
1.2
4352-9
2.6
78%
53%
19%
10.8
67%
3.5
44%
21.0
36%
3
1111.21.4
-
7DunfermlineDunfermline3641
31%
1.1
3340-7
2.0
47%
36%
19%
9.8
53%
3.3
39%
22.3
61%
4
2020.91.1
-
8
A
Alloa
3639
28%
1.1
3953-14
2.6
75%
50%
22%
11.2
67%
3.0
39%
22.1
53%
0
0001.11.5
-
9
QO
Queen of Sth
3638
25%
1.1
4148-7
2.5
72%
47%
19%
10.2
56%
3.3
39%
20.4
39%
0
0001.11.3
-
10FalkirkFalkirk3638
25%
1.1
3749-12
2.4
78%
36%
17%
10.2
61%
3.6
53%
21.1
47%
6
2131.01.4
-
Scotland: Championship 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

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