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Dunfermline vs Inverness CT Result & Analysis

Date: 16/02/2019
Time: 00:00
Final 1-0
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Vs
29%
30%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Scotland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Dunfermline win✓ Hit
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT win✗ Miss
41.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L30W02L00D00D42W22D01L00D12LA·ROS24/11H·MOR01/12A·PAR08/12A·QUE15/12H·AYR22/12A·FAL29/12H·ALL05/01A·DUN12/01A·MOR26/01H·ROS02/02
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.171.331.001.331.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.231.081.230.921.231.23
vs Weaker (4)2.001.752.001.502.002.00
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-433D23L11D21W12L12L10W22D32W12LA·QUE17/11H·FAL01/12H·DUN15/12A·MOR22/12A·ROS29/12H·QUE05/01H·AYR12/01A·FAL26/01A·AYR29/01H·PAR02/02
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.031.601.331.600.73
vs Stronger (25)1.441.121.381.381.500.83
vs Similar (3)2.000.671.001.002.500.50
vs Weaker (2)3.000.505.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.8%
Under 1.5
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.5%
Under 2.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.5%
Under 3.5
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.0%
No
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-1
10.6%
0-0
10.2%
1-2
8.6%
1-0 ✓
8.4%
0-2
7.9%
2-1
7.0%
2-0
5.2%
Dunfermline goals ↓
Inverness CT goals →
01234
010%11%7.9%3.5%1.2%
18.4%14%8.6%3.8%1.3%
25.2%7.0%4.7%2.1%0.7%
31.9%2.5%1.7%0.7%0.2%
40.5%0.7%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dunfermline goals (down), columns = Inverness CT goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ross County
1.97
Dundee Utd
1.81
Inverness CT
1.56
Ayr
1.50
Morton
1.28
Partick
1.19
Dunfermline
1.14
Alloa
1.08
Falkirk
1.06
Queen of Sth
1.06
Dunfermline is 0.42 points worse than Inverness CT in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.56).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Ross County
1.75
Ayr
1.39
Dundee Utd
1.36
Inverness CT
1.33
Partick
1.19
Queen of Sth
1.14
Alloa
1.08
Falkirk
1.03
Morton
1.00
Dunfermline
0.92
Dunfermline is 0.42 goals worse than Inverness CT in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 1.33).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Ross County
0.94
Ayr
1.06
Dunfermline
1.11
Dundee Utd
1.11
Inverness CT
1.11
Morton
1.25
Queen of Sth
1.33
Falkirk
1.36
Partick
1.44
Alloa
1.47
Dunfermline and Inverness CT are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.11).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

DunfermlineDunfermline

For 3.7 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.5

ðŸšĐ Corners

1305551222543693663521110647491212813H·ROSA·MORA·DUNH·ALLA·FALH·AYRA·QUEA·PARH·MORA·ROS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.1

ðŸŸĻ Cards

704321112233122137223261413H·ROSA·MORA·DUNH·ALLA·FALH·AYRA·QUEA·PARH·MORA·ROS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 11.6 · Total 23.4

⚠ïļ Fouls

30019111013151311111115141411961198121130232822262820171723H·ROSA·MORA·DUNH·ALLA·FALH·AYRA·QUEA·PARH·MORA·ROS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Inverness CTInverness CT

For 5.6 · Against 6.4 · Total 12.0

ðŸšĐ Corners

160672106963168667389197131215971413111016H·PARA·AYRA·FALH·AYRH·QUEA·ROSA·MORH·DUNH·FALA·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.9

ðŸŸĻ Cards

901421212145421122315330396244H·PARA·AYRA·FALH·AYRH·QUEA·ROSA·MORH·DUNH·FALA·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 10.1 · Total 22.0

⚠ïļ Fouls

300616181298131412886151115714791222301727201426222121H·PARA·AYRA·FALH·AYRH·QUEA·ROSA·MORH·DUNH·FALA·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DunfermlineDunfermline

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.49.29.53.63.43.822.221.822.7
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (42)9.49.59.33.63.43.822.421.823.0
vs Weaker (8)9.17.810.53.63.53.821.621.821.5
% over line54%52%56%46%44%48%60%56%64%
% under line46%48%44%54%56%52%40%44%36%
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.59.911.23.83.74.022.121.722.6
vs Stronger (39)10.69.711.53.84.03.623.123.422.7
vs Similar (8)10.411.29.53.61.85.520.618.023.2
vs Weaker (3)10.39.013.03.73.54.014.012.517.0
% over line62%54%71%58%62%54%54%54%54%
% under line38%46%29%42%38%46%46%46%46%
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Morton
11.0
Inverness CT
10.5
Dundee Utd
10.5
Alloa
10.4
Partick
10.2
Falkirk
9.9
Ross County
9.8
Ayr
9.7
Queen of Sth
9.5
Dunfermline
9.4

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Dundee Utd
4.2
Inverness CT
3.8
Ross County
3.8
Falkirk
3.8
Ayr
3.6
Dunfermline
3.6
Queen of Sth
3.3
Morton
3.3
Alloa
3.1
Partick
3.0

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Ross County
23.5
Dundee Utd
22.6
Dunfermline
22.2
Alloa
22.2
Inverness CT
22.1
Ayr
22.1
Morton
22.0
Falkirk
21.4
Partick
21.0
Queen of Sth
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.1%
Under 9.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
54.1%
Under 3.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
55.5%
Under 21.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DunfermlineDunfermline

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L20W01L00D00D21W20W00D00D10WA·ROS24/11H·MOR01/12A·PAR08/12A·QUE15/12H·AYR22/12A·FAL29/12H·ALL05/01A·DUN12/01A·MOR26/01H·ROS02/02
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.430.930.200.470.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.580.380.850.230.310.54
vs Weaker (4)1.500.751.500.001.501.50
Clean sheet %70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L12L10W10W11D00D00D21W30W02LA·QUE17/11H·FAL01/12H·DUN15/12A·MOR22/12A·ROS29/12H·QUE05/01H·AYR12/01A·FAL26/01A·AYR29/01H·PAR02/02
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.500.930.800.800.20
vs Stronger (25)0.800.520.850.770.750.25
vs Similar (3)1.330.331.001.001.500.00
vs Weaker (2)1.000.502.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DunfermlineDunfermline

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W01L00D00D21W02L01L00D02LA·ROS24/11H·MOR01/12A·PAR08/12A·QUE15/12H·AYR22/12A·FAL29/12H·ALL05/01A·DUN12/01A·MOR26/01H·ROS02/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.730.400.800.870.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.650.690.380.690.920.69
vs Weaker (4)0.501.000.501.500.500.50
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-332W11D01L11D01L12L10W01L02L10WA·QUE17/11H·FAL01/12H·DUN15/12A·MOR22/12A·ROS29/12H·QUE05/01H·AYR12/01A·FAL26/01A·AYR29/01H·PAR02/02
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.530.670.530.800.53
vs Stronger (25)0.640.600.540.620.750.58
vs Similar (3)0.670.330.000.001.000.50
vs Weaker (2)2.000.003.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards80.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.577.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls75.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards74.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls71.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.570.8%-------✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners70.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (22)
€11m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
Dunfermline's squad is €4m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€4m vs €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (7)
€4m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
Dunfermline's attack is €1m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€2m vs €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (6)
€3m
PAR (6)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
Dunfermline and Inverness CT have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
DUN (13)
€2m
PAR (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
MOR (6)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Dunfermline's defence is €2m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€2m vs €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
2
DUN wins
2
Draws
2
IC wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dunfermline vs Inverness CT · H/A from DUN
DateH/AGameScore
30/10/18AInverness CT Vs DUN2-2
01/09/18HDUN Vs Inverness CT0-3
21/04/18AInverness CT Vs DUN2-2
13/03/18HDUN Vs Inverness CT1-0
28/10/17AInverness CT Vs DUN1-0
12/08/17HDUN Vs Inverness CT5-1

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/02/19HDUN Vs Ross County1-2
26/01/19AMorton Vs DUN0-0
12/01/19ADundee Utd Vs DUN1-0
05/01/19HDUN Vs Alloa2-2
29/12/18AFalkirk Vs DUN2-4
22/12/18HDUN Vs Ayr0-0
15/12/18AQueen of Sth Vs DUN0-0
08/12/18APartick Vs DUN2-0
01/12/18HDUN Vs Morton3-0
24/11/18ARoss County Vs DUN2-1

Inverness CTInverness CT

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/02/19HIC Vs Partick1-2
29/01/19AAyr Vs IC2-3
26/01/19AFalkirk Vs IC2-2
12/01/19HIC Vs Ayr1-0
05/01/19HIC Vs Queen of Sth1-2
29/12/18ARoss County Vs IC2-1
22/12/18AMorton Vs IC1-2
15/12/18HIC Vs Dundee Utd1-1
01/12/18HIC Vs Falkirk2-3
17/11/18AQueen of Sth Vs IC3-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLDL1.34
HomeLWDDL1.48
AwayLDWLD1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%40%28%
AVG goals2.342.442.24
Over 1.5 %64%64%64%
Over 2.5 %46%52%40%
Over 3.5 %26%32%20%
Scored1.221.361.08
Conceded1.121.081.16
BTTS44%40%48%
Clean Sheet38%44%32%
Corners9.389.249.52
Cards3.603.403.80
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWL1.68
HomeLDLWL1.65
AwayDWLDW1.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%42%46%
AVG goals2.502.852.12
Over 1.5 %64%73%54%
Over 2.5 %46%54%38%
Over 3.5 %34%46%21%
Scored1.521.731.29
Conceded0.981.120.83
BTTS48%58%38%
Clean Sheet42%35%50%
Corners10.529.8811.21
Cards3.803.653.96

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Ross CountyRoss County3671
58%
2.0
6334+29
2.7
72%
50%
31%
10.3
64%
4.1
58%
24.0
67%
1
0011.80.9
-
2Dundee UtdDundee Utd3665
53%
1.8
4940+9
2.5
78%
39%
14%
10.9
58%
4.2
69%
22.8
58%
11
4341.41.1
-
3Inverness CTInverness CT3656
39%
1.6
4840+8
2.4
64%
50%
28%
11.4
72%
3.8
56%
21.5
53%
1
0001.31.1
-
4
A
Ayr
3654
42%
1.5
5038+12
2.4
61%
39%
28%
9.0
39%
3.2
44%
22.0
56%
0
0001.41.1
-
5MortonMorton3646
31%
1.3
3645-9
2.2
69%
39%
14%
10.6
58%
3.5
53%
22.4
58%
1
0001.01.2
-
6PartickPartick3643
33%
1.2
4352-9
2.6
78%
53%
19%
10.8
67%
3.5
44%
21.0
36%
3
1111.21.4
-
7DunfermlineDunfermline3641
31%
1.1
3340-7
2.0
47%
36%
19%
9.8
53%
3.3
39%
22.3
61%
4
2020.91.1
-
8
A
Alloa
3639
28%
1.1
3953-14
2.6
75%
50%
22%
11.2
67%
3.0
39%
22.1
53%
0
0001.11.5
-
9
QO
Queen of Sth
3638
25%
1.1
4148-7
2.5
72%
47%
19%
10.2
56%
3.3
39%
20.4
39%
0
0001.11.3
-
10FalkirkFalkirk3638
25%
1.1
3749-12
2.4
78%
36%
17%
10.2
61%
3.6
53%
21.1
47%
6
2131.01.4
-
Scotland: Championship 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

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