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Dunfermline vs Inverness CT Result & Analysis

Date: 14/09/2019
Time: 15:00
Final 0-1
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Vs
29%
32%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Scotland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Dunfermline win✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied 37.3% · @ 2.48
Edge
-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.7%
Avg Implied 28.7% · @ 3.23
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT win✓ Hit
38.9%
Avg Implied 34.0% · @ 2.72
Edge
+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D01L01L12L01L01L22D11D02L01LA·PAR06/04A·ROS09/04H·FAL13/04A·QUE20/04H·MOR27/04A·INV04/05H·DUN02/08A·QUE10/08H·DUN24/08A·ARB31/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.000.930.930.881.06
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.891.000.921.000.861.00
vs Weaker (3)1.001.001.000.001.001.50
Clean sheet %33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L10W22D02L21W10W14L21W00D50WH·ROS02/04A·AYR06/04A·MOR16/04H·DUN20/04A·ALL27/04H·DUN04/05A·DUN03/08H·ARB10/08A·DUN24/08H·MOR30/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.301.531.271.471.33
vs Stronger (25)1.321.401.251.501.381.31
vs Similar (5)2.400.802.670.332.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%022%128%220%311%45%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
65.6%
Under 1.5
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.4%
@ 1.97-10.4%
Under 2.5
62.6%
@ 1.80+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.8%
Under 3.5
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.2%
No
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
12.6%
0-1 ✓
12.0%
1-0
9.9%
0-2
7.9%
1-2
7.9%
2-1
6.7%
2-0
5.6%
Dunfermline goals ↓
Inverness CT goals →
01234
013%12%7.9%3.1%0.9%
19.9%15%7.9%3.1%0.9%
25.6%6.7%4.0%1.6%0.5%
31.9%2.2%1.3%0.5%0.2%
40.5%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dunfermline goals (down), columns = Inverness CT goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dundee Utd
2.11
Inverness CT
1.67
Dundee
1.52
Ayr
1.48
Arbroath
1.38
Dunfermline
1.32
Morton
1.29
Alloa
1.11
Queen of Sth
1.00
Partick
0.96
Dunfermline is 0.35 points worse than Inverness CT in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 1.67).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dundee Utd
1.86
Morton
1.61
Dunfermline
1.46
Inverness CT
1.44
Ayr
1.41
Partick
1.19
Dundee
1.19
Alloa
1.18
Queen of Sth
1.00
Arbroath
0.92
Dunfermline is 0.02 goals better than Inverness CT in terms of goals scored per game (1.46 vs 1.44).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Dundee Utd
0.79
Arbroath
1.00
Dundee
1.15
Inverness CT
1.19
Dunfermline
1.29
Ayr
1.30
Queen of Sth
1.43
Alloa
1.54
Partick
1.74
Morton
1.86
Dunfermline is 0.10 goals worse than Inverness CT in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.19).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

DunfermlineDunfermline

For 5.8 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.3

ðŸšĐ Corners

150426653104442457729667612814861291513A·ARBH·DUNA·QUEH·DUNA·INVH·MORA·QUEH·FALA·ROSA·PAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.2

ðŸŸĻ Cards

5012135311421112313454053134A·ARBH·DUNA·QUEH·DUNA·INVH·MORA·QUEH·FALA·ROSA·PAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 11.2 · Total 22.0

⚠ïļ Fouls

300111461211191710810191181061013119525183027183018162414A·ARBH·DUNA·QUEH·DUNA·INVH·MORA·QUEH·FALA·ROSA·PAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Inverness CTInverness CT

For 6.2 · Against 7.0 · Total 13.2

ðŸšĐ Corners

20087611826644411128265976151710128152081413H·MORA·DUNH·ARBA·DUNH·DUNA·ALLH·DUNA·MORA·AYRH·ROS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.3

ðŸŸĻ Cards

80122211223122211533422053428H·MORA·DUNH·ARBA·DUNH·DUNA·ALLH·DUNA·MORA·AYRH·ROS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 10.6 · Total 21.4

⚠ïļ Fouls

34061014109821131081114697101210121416241734182515172226H·MORA·DUNH·ARBA·DUNH·DUNA·ALLH·DUNA·MORA·AYRH·ROS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DunfermlineDunfermline

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.69.79.53.23.33.121.921.522.3
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (43)9.79.99.63.33.43.122.121.622.6
vs Weaker (7)8.78.59.02.72.82.720.620.820.3
% over line52%58%46%42%46%38%56%54%58%
% under line48%42%54%58%54%62%44%46%42%
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.210.611.83.63.24.021.320.522.1
vs Stronger (40)11.310.512.23.73.53.922.221.922.5
vs Similar (8)10.812.08.72.92.04.318.116.221.3
vs Weaker (2)9.56.013.04.04.04.015.514.017.0
% over line68%58%79%52%46%58%48%42%54%
% under line32%42%21%48%54%42%52%58%46%
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Alloa
11.2
Morton
11.2
Inverness CT
11.2
Partick
10.9
Dundee Utd
10.9
Dundee
10.7
Queen of Sth
10.0
Arbroath
9.9
Dunfermline
9.6
Ayr
9.1

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Dundee Utd
4.0
Dundee
3.7
Arbroath
3.7
Inverness CT
3.6
Morton
3.4
Partick
3.3
Ayr
3.3
Alloa
3.2
Dunfermline
3.2
Queen of Sth
3.2

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Dundee
23.3
Dundee Utd
23.3
Alloa
22.4
Morton
21.9
Dunfermline
21.9
Ayr
21.7
Arbroath
21.6
Partick
21.3
Inverness CT
21.3
Queen of Sth
20.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
70.9%
Under 9.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.2%
Under 3.5
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
58.2%
Under 21.5
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DunfermlineDunfermline

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W00D00D01L00D01L21W10W02L00DA·PAR06/04A·ROS09/04H·FAL13/04A·QUE20/04H·MOR27/04A·INV04/05H·DUN02/08A·QUE10/08H·DUN24/08A·ARB31/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.430.500.360.440.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.440.370.540.380.360.36
vs Weaker (3)0.671.000.000.001.001.50
Clean sheet %63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D12L01L01L10W12L11D00D10WH·ROS02/04A·AYR06/04A·MOR16/04H·DUN20/04A·ALL27/04H·DUN04/05A·DUN03/08H·ARB10/08A·DUN24/08H·MOR30/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.670.870.800.730.53
vs Stronger (25)0.760.680.830.920.690.46
vs Similar (5)1.000.601.000.331.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DunfermlineDunfermline

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L01L01L11D01L00D01L01L00D01LA·PAR06/04A·ROS09/04H·FAL13/04A·QUE20/04H·MOR27/04A·INV04/05H·DUN02/08A·QUE10/08H·DUN24/08A·ARB31/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.570.430.570.440.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.440.630.380.620.500.64
vs Weaker (3)0.330.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W10W01L20W00D02L10W00D40WH·ROS02/04A·AYR06/04A·MOR16/04H·DUN20/04A·ALL27/04H·DUN04/05A·DUN03/08H·ARB10/08A·DUN24/08H·MOR30/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.630.670.470.730.80
vs Stronger (25)0.560.720.420.580.690.85
vs Similar (5)1.400.201.670.001.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards85.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.582.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners80.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls73.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls73.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards71.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 9.5 corners70.9%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (22)
€11m
DUN (21)
€5m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
Dunfermline's squad is €4m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€4m vs €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (7)
€4m
DUN (9)
€2m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
Dunfermline's attack is €1m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€2m vs €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
Dunfermline and Inverness CT have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (9)
€4m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
PAR (8)
€1m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Dunfermline's defence is €2m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€2m vs €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
DUN wins
2
Draws
3
IC wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dunfermline vs Inverness CT · H/A from DUN
DateH/AGameScore
04/05/19AInverness CT Vs DUN1-0
16/02/19HDUN Vs Inverness CT1-0
30/10/18AInverness CT Vs DUN2-2
01/09/18HDUN Vs Inverness CT0-3
21/04/18AInverness CT Vs DUN2-2
13/03/18HDUN Vs Inverness CT1-0
28/10/17AInverness CT Vs DUN1-0
12/08/17HDUN Vs Inverness CT5-1

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/08/19AArbroath Vs DUN1-0
24/08/19HDUN Vs Dundee Utd0-2
10/08/19AQueen of Sth Vs DUN1-1
02/08/19HDUN Vs Dundee2-2
04/05/19AInverness CT Vs DUN1-0
27/04/19HDUN Vs Morton0-1
20/04/19AQueen of Sth Vs DUN2-1
13/04/19HDUN Vs Falkirk0-1
09/04/19ARoss County Vs DUN1-0
06/04/19APartick Vs DUN2-2

Inverness CTInverness CT

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/19HIC Vs Morton5-0
24/08/19ADundee Vs IC0-0
10/08/19HIC Vs Arbroath2-1
03/08/19ADundee Utd Vs IC4-1
04/05/19HIC Vs Dunfermline1-0
27/04/19AAlloa Vs IC1-2
20/04/19HIC Vs Dundee Utd0-2
16/04/19AMorton Vs IC2-2
06/04/19AAyr Vs IC0-1
02/04/19HIC Vs Ross County1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 0 Wins / 3 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLL1.34
HomeLLLDL1.35
AwayLLLDL1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%38%33%
AVG goals2.161.962.38
Over 1.5 %54%46%62%
Over 2.5 %40%38%42%
Over 3.5 %24%23%25%
Scored1.141.081.21
Conceded1.020.881.17
BTTS34%19%50%
Clean Sheet38%46%29%
Corners9.609.659.54
Cards3.203.313.08
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDW1.78
HomeLLWWW1.65
AwayWDWLD1.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%42%54%
AVG goals2.562.812.29
Over 1.5 %64%69%58%
Over 2.5 %52%58%46%
Over 3.5 %32%42%21%
Scored1.561.691.42
Conceded1.001.120.88
BTTS50%58%42%
Clean Sheet44%38%50%
Corners11.1610.6211.75
Cards3.563.193.96

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Dundee UtdDundee Utd2859
64%
2.1
5222+30
2.6
75%
46%
21%
11.4
71%
3.2
39%
21.4
46%
11
4341.90.8
-
2Inverness CTInverness CT2745
52%
1.7
3932+7
2.6
81%
48%
26%
11.0
74%
2.9
22%
20.4
41%
1
0001.41.2
-
3DundeeDundee2741
41%
1.5
3231+1
2.3
70%
33%
15%
10.4
59%
3.4
56%
24.3
67%
5
1221.21.1
-
4
A
Ayr
2740
44%
1.5
3835+3
2.7
74%
48%
30%
9.9
44%
3.4
44%
21.4
52%
0
0001.41.3
-
5DunfermlineDunfermline2837
36%
1.3
4136+5
2.8
82%
39%
29%
10.2
57%
3.4
50%
19.1
25%
4
2021.51.3
-
6ArbroathArbroath2636
38%
1.4
2426-2
1.9
65%
31%
4%
10.4
65%
3.0
31%
21.2
46%
1
0000.91.0
-
7MortonMorton2836
36%
1.3
4552-7
3.5
86%
68%
43%
10.8
61%
3.0
29%
19.2
29%
1
0001.61.9
-
8
A
Alloa
2831
25%
1.1
3343-10
2.7
82%
46%
25%
12.1
68%
2.4
21%
19.2
29%
0
0001.21.5
-
9
QO
Queen of Sth
2828
25%
1.0
2840-12
2.4
71%
43%
29%
10.1
57%
2.7
29%
20.1
43%
0
0001.01.4
-
10PartickPartick2726
22%
1.0
3247-15
2.9
85%
56%
33%
10.9
63%
2.4
22%
19.2
33%
3
1111.21.7
-
Scotland: Championship 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

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