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Dunfermline vs Inverness CT Result & Analysis

Date: 17/10/2020
Time: 15:00
Final 3-1
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Vs
40%
30%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Scotland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Dunfermline win✓ Hit
39.7%
Avg Implied 38.9% · @ 2.38
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.32
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT win✗ Miss
30.5%
Avg Implied 33.3% · @ 2.78
Edge
-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L01L23L20W32W12L20W00D11D11DH·ALL28/12H·AYR04/01A·MOR11/01H·DUN24/01A·QUE01/02H·INV25/02H·DUN29/02A·ARB04/03H·QUE07/03A·PAR10/03
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.271.561.121.141.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.541.231.711.071.331.42
vs Weaker (4)0.251.500.501.500.001.50
Clean sheet %23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L20W01L11D12L21W32W02L31WH·DUN21/12H·ARB28/12A·DUN04/01A·AYR25/01H·ALL01/02A·DUN21/02A·DUN25/02H·MOR03/03A·ALL07/03H·QUE10/03
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.171.671.071.131.27
vs Stronger (24)1.291.081.361.091.231.08
vs Similar (6)1.831.502.501.000.502.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.3%
Under 1.5
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.1%
@ 1.89-5.7%
Under 2.5
55.9%
@ 1.87+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.0%
Under 3.5
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.7%
No
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
1-0
10.2%
0-0
10.0%
0-1
8.5%
2-1
8.5%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.2%
0-2
5.5%
Dunfermline goals ↓
Inverness CT goals →
01234
010%8.5%5.5%2.1%0.6%
110%14%7.2%2.7%0.8%
27.5%8.5%4.8%1.8%0.5%
33.3%3.7%2.1%0.8%0.2%
41.1%1.2%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dunfermline goals (down), columns = Inverness CT goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Dundee
1.67
Raith Rvs
1.59
Dunfermline
1.44
Inverness CT
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.19
Arbroath
1.11
Morton
1.07
Ayr
1.07
Alloa
0.81
Dunfermline is 0.11 points better than Inverness CT in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.33).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.33
Dundee
1.81
Raith Rvs
1.67
Dunfermline
1.41
Queen of Sth
1.41
Inverness CT
1.33
Ayr
1.15
Alloa
1.11
Arbroath
1.04
Morton
0.81
Dunfermline is 0.07 goals better than Inverness CT in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.33).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Inverness CT
1.15
Morton
1.22
Dunfermline
1.26
Arbroath
1.26
Raith Rvs
1.33
Ayr
1.37
Dundee
1.48
Queen of Sth
1.89
Alloa
2.22
Dunfermline is 0.11 goals worse than Inverness CT in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.15).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

DunfermlineDunfermline

For 6.3 · Against 5.0 · Total 11.3

ðŸšĐ Corners

1805128175682126948817417971110181316111A·PARH·QUEA·ARBH·DUNH·INVA·QUEH·DUNA·MORH·AYRH·ALL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.3

ðŸŸĻ Cards

6021121322422232222235624522A·PARH·QUEA·ARBH·DUNH·INVA·QUEH·DUNA·MORH·AYRH·ALL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.9 · Against 8.5 · Total 16.4

⚠ïļ Fouls

25010777916768785714610879617142513151321161515A·PARH·QUEA·ARBH·DUNH·INVA·QUEH·DUNA·MORH·AYRH·ALL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Inverness CTInverness CT

For 4.5 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.4

ðŸšĐ Corners

120645342286672152938921086101296111111H·QUEA·ALLH·MORA·DUNA·DUNH·ALLA·AYRA·DUNH·ARBH·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.7

ðŸŸĻ Cards

60111112422113122112236314222H·QUEA·ALLH·MORA·DUNA·DUNH·ALLA·AYRA·DUNH·ARBH·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 8.2 · Total 17.9

⚠ïļ Fouls

240106131161378859717710121067716241915131624221614H·QUEA·ALLH·MORA·DUNA·DUNH·ALLA·AYRA·DUNH·ARBH·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DunfermlineDunfermline

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.09.210.93.13.72.520.320.420.1
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (45)10.09.111.03.23.72.720.520.520.5
vs Weaker (5)9.810.09.52.63.71.018.019.316.0
% over line54%46%62%42%58%25%38%38%38%
% under line46%54%38%58%42%75%62%62%62%
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.511.311.73.22.73.720.519.121.8
vs Stronger (41)11.611.511.73.32.83.720.819.821.7
vs Similar (9)11.010.611.52.92.23.819.116.622.2
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line74%71%77%32%17%46%42%29%54%
% under line26%29%23%68%83%54%58%71%46%
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Alloa
12.0
Inverness CT
11.5
Morton
10.8
Heart Of Midlothian
10.5
Queen of Sth
10.3
Dundee
10.0
Dunfermline
10.0
Arbroath
9.9
Ayr
9.7
Raith Rvs
9.4

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Heart Of Midlothian
4.4
Raith Rvs
3.6
Arbroath
3.5
Dundee
3.4
Ayr
3.2
Inverness CT
3.2
Dunfermline
3.1
Morton
3.1
Queen of Sth
2.8
Alloa
2.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
27.5
Dundee
23.1
Ayr
21.9
Arbroath
21.7
Raith Rvs
21.2
Inverness CT
20.5
Morton
20.5
Dunfermline
20.3
Queen of Sth
20.2
Alloa
19.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.1%
Under 9.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.6%
Under 3.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
34.3%
Under 21.5
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DunfermlineDunfermline

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L01L11D20W21W01L10W00D01L00DH·ALL28/12H·AYR04/01A·MOR11/01H·DUN24/01A·QUE01/02H·INV25/02H·DUN29/02A·ARB04/03H·QUE07/03A·PAR10/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.630.750.560.570.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.770.620.860.570.670.67
vs Weaker (4)0.000.750.000.500.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D20W00D01L11D10W10W02L10WH·DUN21/12H·ARB28/12A·DUN04/01A·AYR25/01H·ALL01/02A·DUN21/02A·DUN25/02H·MOR03/03A·ALL07/03H·QUE10/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.470.730.400.670.53
vs Stronger (24)0.710.460.730.450.690.46
vs Similar (6)0.670.500.750.250.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DunfermlineDunfermline

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D12L00D11D11D10W00D10W11DH·ALL28/12H·AYR04/01A·MOR11/01H·DUN24/01A·QUE01/02H·INV25/02H·DUN29/02A·ARB04/03H·QUE07/03A·PAR10/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.630.810.560.570.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.770.620.860.500.670.75
vs Weaker (4)0.250.750.501.000.000.50
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L00D01L10W01L11D22D00D21WH·DUN21/12H·ARB28/12A·DUN04/01A·AYR25/01H·ALL01/02A·DUN21/02A·DUN25/02H·MOR03/03A·ALL07/03H·QUE10/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.700.930.670.470.73
vs Stronger (24)0.580.620.640.640.540.62
vs Similar (6)1.171.001.750.750.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 25.5 fouls89.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards87.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls79.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.577.0%-------✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards75.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.571.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners70.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (30)
€22m
DUN (21)
€5m
DUN (26)
€4m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
Dunfermline's squad is €4m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€4m vs €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (12)
€12m
DUN (9)
€2m
DUN (7)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
Dunfermline's attack is €1m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€2m vs €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (6)
€4m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
Dunfermline and Inverness CT have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (12)
€6m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Dunfermline's defence is €2m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€2m vs €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
DUN wins
2
Draws
5
IC wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dunfermline vs Inverness CT · H/A from DUN
DateH/AGameScore
25/02/20HDUN Vs Inverness CT1-2
21/12/19AInverness CT Vs DUN2-0
14/09/19HDUN Vs Inverness CT0-1
04/05/19AInverness CT Vs DUN1-0
16/02/19HDUN Vs Inverness CT1-0
30/10/18AInverness CT Vs DUN2-2
01/09/18HDUN Vs Inverness CT0-3
21/04/18AInverness CT Vs DUN2-2

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/03/20APartick Vs DUN1-1
07/03/20HDUN Vs Queen of Sth1-1
04/03/20AArbroath Vs DUN0-0
29/02/20HDUN Vs Dundee Utd2-0
25/02/20HDUN Vs Inverness CT1-2
01/02/20AQueen of Sth Vs DUN2-3
24/01/20HDUN Vs Dundee2-0
11/01/20AMorton Vs DUN3-2
04/01/20HDUN Vs Ayr0-1
28/12/19HDUN Vs Alloa1-3

Inverness CTInverness CT

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/03/20HIC Vs Queen of Sth3-1
07/03/20AAlloa Vs IC2-0
03/03/20HIC Vs Morton3-2
25/02/20ADunfermline Vs IC1-2
21/02/20ADundee Utd Vs IC2-1
01/02/20HIC Vs Alloa1-1
25/01/20AAyr Vs IC1-0
04/01/20ADundee Vs IC0-2
28/12/19HIC Vs Arbroath0-1
21/12/19HIC Vs Dunfermline2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDDD1.26
HomeLWLWD1.46
AwayLLWDD1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%42%25%
AVG goals2.322.352.29
Over 1.5 %62%65%58%
Over 2.5 %36%38%33%
Over 3.5 %22%23%21%
Scored1.221.381.04
Conceded1.100.961.25
BTTS40%38%42%
Clean Sheet32%35%29%
Corners10.029.1910.92
Cards3.143.692.54
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLW1.60
HomeWLDWW1.67
AwayWLLWL1.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%50%46%
AVG goals2.662.672.65
Over 1.5 %76%75%77%
Over 2.5 %52%50%54%
Over 3.5 %26%29%23%
Scored1.421.501.35
Conceded1.241.171.31
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet34%38%31%
Corners11.4811.2911.65
Cards3.202.673.69

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian2757
63%
2.1
6324+39
3.2
78%
59%
41%
10.1
56%
3.0
41%
25.5
74%
22
12462.30.9
-
2DundeeDundee2745
44%
1.7
4940+9
3.3
89%
63%
44%
10.5
67%
3.0
33%
24.7
67%
5
1221.81.5
-
3
RR
Raith Rvs
2743
44%
1.6
4536+9
3.0
70%
56%
44%
11.2
67%
4.5
74%
23.7
74%
0
0001.71.3
-
4DunfermlineDunfermline2739
37%
1.4
3834+4
2.7
59%
48%
37%
11.1
81%
2.9
33%
22.0
52%
4
2021.41.3
-
5Inverness CTInverness CT2736
30%
1.3
3631+5
2.5
78%
44%
26%
10.4
48%
3.5
48%
24.0
63%
1
0001.31.1
-
6
QO
Queen of Sth
2732
33%
1.2
3851-13
3.3
85%
59%
41%
10.3
56%
3.5
48%
21.8
56%
0
0001.41.9
-
7ArbroathArbroath2730
26%
1.1
2834-6
2.3
59%
37%
26%
9.2
56%
3.4
52%
24.5
67%
1
0001.01.3
-
8
A
Ayr
2729
22%
1.1
3137-6
2.5
74%
41%
30%
10.5
63%
3.1
48%
22.2
52%
0
0001.11.4
-
9MortonMorton2729
22%
1.1
2233-11
2.0
59%
30%
19%
10.4
70%
3.0
41%
22.1
48%
1
0000.81.2
-
10
A
Alloa
2722
19%
0.8
3060-30
3.3
89%
67%
41%
10.6
59%
3.4
56%
26.0
78%
0
0001.12.2
-
Scotland: Championship 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

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