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Dunfermline vs Inverness CT Result & Analysis

Date: 20/03/2021
Time: 15:00
Final 0-1
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Vs
43%
29%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Scotland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Dunfermline win✗ Miss
43.5%
Avg Implied 42.6% · @ 2.17
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied 28.1% · @ 3.29
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT win✓ Hit
27.5%
Avg Implied 29.3% · @ 3.16
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W11D00D00D01L41W02L21W01L10WH·ARB26/12A·INV29/12A·MOR15/01H·AYR23/01A·HEA30/01H·RAI03/02A·ARB06/02H·ALL20/02A·QUE27/02H·MOR13/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.271.601.001.271.53
vs Stronger (2)1.001.002.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (24)1.501.251.500.921.501.58
vs Weaker (4)1.251.502.001.500.501.50
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L20W22D11D12L11D01L00D10WA·ARB03/02H·QUE17/02A·AYR20/02H·ALL23/02H·HEA26/02A·DUN02/03A·ALL06/03H·MOR09/03H·RAI12/03A·RAI16/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.131.401.001.271.27
vs Stronger (24)1.291.081.360.911.231.23
vs Similar (6)1.501.331.501.251.501.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.8%
Under 1.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.9%
@ 2.07+0.7%
Under 2.5
54.1%
@ 1.71-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.5%
Under 3.5
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.6%
No
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
10.3%
0-0
9.4%
2-1
8.9%
2-0
8.2%
0-1 ✓
7.6%
1-2
6.8%
2-2
4.9%
Dunfermline goals ↓
Inverness CT goals →
01234
09.4%7.6%4.8%1.7%0.5%
110%14%6.8%2.5%0.7%
28.2%8.9%4.9%1.8%0.5%
33.9%4.2%2.3%0.8%0.2%
41.4%1.5%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dunfermline goals (down), columns = Inverness CT goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Dundee
1.67
Raith Rvs
1.59
Dunfermline
1.44
Inverness CT
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.19
Arbroath
1.11
Morton
1.07
Ayr
1.07
Alloa
0.81
Dunfermline is 0.11 points better than Inverness CT in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.33).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.33
Dundee
1.81
Raith Rvs
1.67
Dunfermline
1.41
Queen of Sth
1.41
Inverness CT
1.33
Ayr
1.15
Alloa
1.11
Arbroath
1.04
Morton
0.81
Dunfermline is 0.07 goals better than Inverness CT in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.33).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Inverness CT
1.15
Morton
1.22
Dunfermline
1.26
Arbroath
1.26
Raith Rvs
1.33
Ayr
1.37
Dundee
1.48
Queen of Sth
1.89
Alloa
2.22
Dunfermline is 0.11 goals worse than Inverness CT in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.15).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

DunfermlineDunfermline

For 5.9 · Against 6.2 · Total 12.1

ðŸšĐ Corners

1406747285584687694666713111010121413131213H·MORA·QUEH·ALLA·ARBH·RAIA·HEAH·AYRA·MORA·INVH·ARB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.5

ðŸŸĻ Cards

601133111121113232612310145H·MORA·QUEH·ALLA·ARBH·RAIA·HEAH·AYRA·MORA·INVH·ARB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 9.9 · Total 20.4

⚠ïļ Fouls

2808912101461051012151310131187148917222015222823192117H·MORA·QUEH·ALLA·ARBH·RAIA·HEAH·AYRA·MORA·INVH·ARB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Inverness CTInverness CT

For 4.6 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.7

ðŸšĐ Corners

1403841032532102513136635311145812714998A·RAIH·RAIH·MORA·ALLA·DUNH·HEAH·ALLA·AYRH·QUEA·ARB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.6

ðŸŸĻ Cards

8024355122213321323116864362452A·RAIH·RAIH·MORA·ALLA·DUNH·HEAH·ALLA·AYRH·QUEA·ARB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 12.7 · Total 25.4

⚠ïļ Fouls

36081515141210221411151517131281314591223292236263225211921A·RAIH·RAIH·MORA·ALLA·DUNH·HEAH·ALLA·AYRH·QUEA·ARB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DunfermlineDunfermline

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.69.811.53.13.42.820.319.621.1
vs Stronger (2)13.012.014.04.58.01.027.527.028.0
vs Similar (42)10.59.611.63.13.13.020.419.521.3
vs Weaker (6)10.310.310.33.04.02.017.818.017.7
% over line68%58%79%44%54%33%36%27%46%
% under line32%42%21%56%46%67%64%73%54%
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.110.911.23.23.23.221.420.222.6
vs Stronger (40)11.211.611.03.43.43.421.620.622.5
vs Similar (10)10.48.812.82.62.82.220.718.823.5
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line64%64%64%36%32%40%46%36%56%
% under line36%36%36%64%68%60%54%64%44%
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Alloa
11.6
Inverness CT
11.1
Heart Of Midlothian
11.0
Dunfermline
10.6
Morton
10.6
Raith Rvs
10.5
Queen of Sth
10.4
Dundee
10.2
Ayr
10.2
Arbroath
9.6

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Heart Of Midlothian
3.9
Raith Rvs
3.8
Dundee
3.3
Arbroath
3.3
Inverness CT
3.2
Ayr
3.2
Queen of Sth
3.1
Dunfermline
3.1
Morton
3.0
Alloa
2.8

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
26.2
Dundee
24.9
Raith Rvs
22.4
Alloa
22.3
Arbroath
22.3
Ayr
21.5
Inverness CT
21.4
Morton
20.7
Queen of Sth
20.5
Dunfermline
20.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
64.0%
Under 9.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.4%
Under 3.5
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
56.1%
Under 21.5
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DunfermlineDunfermline

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D00D00D10W02L11D00D10WH·ARB26/12A·INV29/12A·MOR15/01H·AYR23/01A·HEA30/01H·RAI03/02A·ARB06/02H·ALL20/02A·QUE27/02H·MOR13/03
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.630.670.530.400.73
vs Stronger (2)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
vs Similar (24)0.580.670.750.500.420.83
vs Weaker (4)0.500.750.501.000.500.50
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D10W01L11D02L11D00D00D00DA·ARB03/02H·QUE17/02A·AYR20/02H·ALL23/02H·HEA26/02A·DUN02/03A·ALL06/03H·MOR09/03H·RAI12/03A·RAI16/03
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.500.330.400.730.60
vs Stronger (24)0.540.500.360.450.690.54
vs Similar (6)0.500.500.250.251.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DunfermlineDunfermline

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L00D00D01L31W00D10W01L00DH·ARB26/12A·INV29/12A·MOR15/01H·AYR23/01A·HEA30/01H·RAI03/02A·ARB06/02H·ALL20/02A·QUE27/02H·MOR13/03
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.630.930.470.870.80
vs Stronger (2)1.001.002.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (24)0.920.580.750.421.080.75
vs Weaker (4)0.750.751.500.500.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L10W21W00D10W00D01L00D10WA·ARB03/02H·QUE17/02A·AYR20/02H·ALL23/02H·HEA26/02A·DUN02/03A·ALL06/03H·MOR09/03H·RAI12/03A·RAI16/03
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.631.070.600.530.67
vs Stronger (24)0.750.581.000.450.540.69
vs Similar (6)1.000.831.251.000.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards88.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards75.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.575.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners75.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls75.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.8%-------✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls72.2%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (30)
€22m
DUN (21)
€5m
DUN (26)
€4m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
Dunfermline's squad is €4m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€4m vs €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (12)
€12m
DUN (9)
€2m
DUN (7)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
Dunfermline's attack is €1m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€2m vs €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (6)
€4m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
Dunfermline and Inverness CT have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (12)
€6m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Dunfermline's defence is €2m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€2m vs €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
DUN wins
2
Draws
4
IC wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dunfermline vs Inverness CT · H/A from DUN
DateH/AGameScore
29/12/20AInverness CT Vs DUN1-1
17/10/20HDUN Vs Inverness CT3-1
25/02/20HDUN Vs Inverness CT1-2
21/12/19AInverness CT Vs DUN2-0
14/09/19HDUN Vs Inverness CT0-1
04/05/19AInverness CT Vs DUN1-0
16/02/19HDUN Vs Inverness CT1-0
30/10/18AInverness CT Vs DUN2-2

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/03/21HDUN Vs Morton1-0
27/02/21AQueen of Sth Vs DUN1-0
20/02/21HDUN Vs Alloa2-1
06/02/21AArbroath Vs DUN2-0
03/02/21HDUN Vs Raith Rvs4-1
30/01/21AHeart Of Midlothian Vs DUN1-0
23/01/21HDUN Vs Ayr0-0
15/01/21AMorton Vs DUN0-0
29/12/20AInverness CT Vs DUN1-1
26/12/20HDUN Vs Arbroath1-0

Inverness CTInverness CT

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/03/21ARaith Rvs Vs IC0-1
12/03/21HIC Vs Raith Rvs0-0
09/03/21HIC Vs Morton0-1
06/03/21AAlloa Vs IC1-1
02/03/21ADundee Vs IC2-1
26/02/21HIC Vs Heart Of Midlothian1-1
23/02/21HIC Vs Alloa2-2
20/02/21AAyr Vs IC0-2
17/02/21HIC Vs Queen of Sth0-1
03/02/21AArbroath Vs IC1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLW1.34
HomeWDWWW1.77
AwayDDLLL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%54%17%
AVG goals2.582.652.50
Over 1.5 %70%73%67%
Over 2.5 %42%46%38%
Over 3.5 %28%31%25%
Scored1.381.621.12
Conceded1.201.041.38
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet24%27%21%
Corners10.629.7711.54
Cards3.123.422.79
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 5 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLDW1.50
HomeLDDLD1.64
AwayDWLDW1.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%44%40%
AVG goals2.522.522.52
Over 1.5 %80%76%84%
Over 2.5 %46%40%52%
Over 3.5 %24%32%16%
Scored1.361.481.24
Conceded1.161.041.28
BTTS50%48%52%
Clean Sheet34%32%36%
Corners11.0810.9211.24
Cards3.223.243.20

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian2757
63%
2.1
6324+39
3.2
78%
59%
41%
10.1
56%
3.0
41%
25.5
74%
22
12462.30.9
-
2DundeeDundee2745
44%
1.7
4940+9
3.3
89%
63%
44%
10.5
67%
3.0
33%
24.7
67%
5
1221.81.5
-
3
RR
Raith Rvs
2743
44%
1.6
4536+9
3.0
70%
56%
44%
11.2
67%
4.5
74%
23.7
74%
0
0001.71.3
-
4DunfermlineDunfermline2739
37%
1.4
3834+4
2.7
59%
48%
37%
11.1
81%
2.9
33%
22.0
52%
4
2021.41.3
-
5Inverness CTInverness CT2736
30%
1.3
3631+5
2.5
78%
44%
26%
10.4
48%
3.5
48%
24.0
63%
1
0001.31.1
-
6
QO
Queen of Sth
2732
33%
1.2
3851-13
3.3
85%
59%
41%
10.3
56%
3.5
48%
21.8
56%
0
0001.41.9
-
7ArbroathArbroath2730
26%
1.1
2834-6
2.3
59%
37%
26%
9.2
56%
3.4
52%
24.5
67%
1
0001.01.3
-
8
A
Ayr
2729
22%
1.1
3137-6
2.5
74%
41%
30%
10.5
63%
3.1
48%
22.2
52%
0
0001.11.4
-
9MortonMorton2729
22%
1.1
2233-11
2.0
59%
30%
19%
10.4
70%
3.0
41%
22.1
48%
1
0000.81.2
-
10
A
Alloa
2722
19%
0.8
3060-30
3.3
89%
67%
41%
10.6
59%
3.4
56%
26.0
78%
0
0001.12.2
-
Scotland: Championship 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

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