Dunfermline’s defensive solidity is highlighted by a 1.0 average conceded at home, while their 4.0 average goals scored against weaker opposition suggests a potent attack. Inverness CT, on the road, has struggled against stronger teams, averaging just 1.09 goals scored and 1.09 conceded. The model therefore favours a home win with a 42% probability, followed by a 35% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of an Inverness victory. The expected total of 1.8 goals points to a tight match, with the most likely total of 2 goals carrying a 28% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 0-0, with a 17.8% chance. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.3%), Under 5.5 (99.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.6%), Under 4.5 (96.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (96.2%) and Home +2 handicap (92.8%). The home side’s recent win and the away side’s recent defeat add further weight to a Dunfermline victory.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dunfermline win
43.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
34.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT win
22.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dunfermline
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.80
1.88
0.50
1.21
1.14
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.50
3.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
1.50
0.77
1.64
0.50
1.33
1.08
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
4.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inverness CT
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.87
1.79
0.64
0.94
1.06
vs Stronger (24)
1.50
0.83
1.85
0.62
1.09
1.09
vs Similar (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
55.2%
Under 1.5
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
27.1%
Under 2.5
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
11.0%
Under 3.5
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
35.2%
No
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
17.7%
1-0
16.7%
1-1
14.1%
0-1
10.4%
2-0
9.9%
2-1
7.0%
1-2
4.5%
0-2
4.1%
Dunfermline goals ↓
Inverness CT goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
18%
10%
4.1%
1.0%
0.2%
1
17%
14%
4.5%
1.1%
0.2%
2
9.9%
7.0%
2.5%
0.6%
0.1%
3
3.6%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
4
1.0%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dunfermline goals (down), columns = Inverness CT goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Partick
1.85
Livingston
1.73
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Inverness CT
0.99
Dunfermline is 0.55 points better than Inverness CT in terms of average points per game (1.54 vs 0.99).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Livingston
1.52
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Arbroath
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr Utd
1.06
Morton
1.00
Queen's Park
0.97
Inverness CT
0.87
Dunfermline is 0.57 goals better than Inverness CT in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 0.87).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livingston
0.91
Partick
0.96
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queen's Park
1.33
Morton
1.38
Inverness CT
1.59
Dunfermline is 0.57 goals better than Inverness CT in terms of goals conceded per game (1.02 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dunfermline
For 4.8 · Against 3.5 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.3 · Against 11.2 · Total 19.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Inverness CT
For 5.3 · Against 2.6 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 10.4 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dunfermline
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.1
8.2
8.0
0.9
0.7
1.2
19.5
23.0
16.5
vs Stronger (3)
9.0
13.0
5.0
1.3
1.0
2.0
19.5
24.0
15.0
vs Similar (44)
7.9
7.0
8.6
1.0
0.7
1.3
19.4
22.8
16.8
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
27%
20%
33%
14%
8%
21%
45%
60%
33%
% under line
73%
80%
67%
86%
92%
79%
55%
40%
67%
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inverness CT
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.8
8.3
2.3
2.0
2.6
21.6
20.8
22.5
vs Stronger (41)
9.2
10.0
8.3
2.3
2.0
2.6
21.3
20.4
22.3
vs Similar (4)
4.0
-
4.0
0.2
0.0
0.5
18.0
-
18.0
vs Weaker (5)
9.3
7.0
10.5
4.0
4.0
4.0
26.3
26.0
26.5
% over line
38%
41%
35%
30%
21%
38%
47%
41%
53%
% under line
62%
59%
65%
70%
79%
62%
53%
59%
47%
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Morton
10.9
Partick
10.4
Ayr Utd
10.0
Livingston
9.9
Arbroath
9.6
Dunfermline
9.3
Inverness CT
9.1
Queen's Park
9.0
Stenhousemuir
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Morton
4.5
Partick
4.4
Livingston
4.2
Ayr Utd
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Arbroath
3.6
Inverness CT
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
25.4
Livingston
25.3
Ayr Utd
22.0
Morton
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Arbroath
20.9
Dunfermline
20.7
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
35.2%
Under 9.5
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.6%
Under 3.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
56.4%
Under 21.5
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dunfermline or Draw
77.7%
Avg Implied -
43%
34%
22%
covers Dunfermline + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline or Inverness CT
65.5%
Avg Implied -
43%
34%
22%
covers Dunfermline + Inverness CT
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Inverness CT
56.8%
Avg Implied -
43%
34%
22%
covers Draw + Inverness CT
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5
Over
66.6%
Under
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5
Over
30.0%
Under
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5
Over
9.9%
Under
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 3.5
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5
Over
50.9%
Under
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5
Over
16.0%
Under
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 3.5
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dunfermline, so a minus line means Dunfermline give that many goals of a start and Inverness CT receive them. At -1, Dunfermline must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dunfermline win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dunfermline)
Dunfermline -2
5.8%
Draw -2
12.7%
Inverness CT +2
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dunfermline)
Dunfermline -1
18.5%
Draw -1
24.7%
Inverness CT +1
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dunfermline)
Dunfermline +1
77.7%
Draw +1
15.6%
Inverness CT -1
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dunfermline)
Dunfermline +2
93.2%
Draw +2
5.3%
Inverness CT -2
1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dunfermline
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.40
0.94
0.19
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.38
0.79
0.21
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inverness CT
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.30
0.79
0.36
0.38
0.25
vs Stronger (24)
0.58
0.29
0.77
0.31
0.36
0.27
vs Similar (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dunfermline
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.40
0.94
0.31
0.79
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.85
0.38
0.86
0.29
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inverness CT
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
1.00
0.29
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (24)
0.92
0.54
1.08
0.31
0.73
0.82
vs Similar (2)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
Dunfermline's squad is €4m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€4m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (9)
€2m
LIV (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
Dunfermline's attack is €1m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€2m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
Dunfermline and Inverness CT have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Dunfermline's defence is €2m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€2m vs €0m).
Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stenhousemuir
Partick
Raith Rovers
Arbroath
Livingston
Ayr Utd
Morton
Queen's Park