Dunfermline are tipped to win this home fixture, with a 49 % chance of triumph, a 30 % chance of a draw and a 21 % chance of a Queen’s Park victory. The match is expected to see 2.3 goals on average, and the most probable total is 2 goals, a 28 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.7 % chance. Dunfermline, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 1.75 goals scored and 0.58 conceded, while Queen’s Park, on the road, average 1.07 scored and 1.57 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.1 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.9 %), Under 5.5 (97.2 %), Away under 2.5 goals (94.4 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.4 %), Home +2 handicap (92.7 %) and Under 4.5 (92.0 %). The home side’s recent form shows a 5-game run of two losses, a draw, a draw and a win, while the visitors have suffered three straight defeats before a win. Both teams have struggled to keep clean sheets against similar opposition, hinting at a tightly contested match.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dunfermline win
49.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park win
19.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dunfermline
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.80
1.88
0.50
1.21
1.14
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.50
3.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
1.50
0.77
1.64
0.50
1.33
1.08
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
4.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queen's Park
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.40
1.14
1.29
0.88
1.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
5.00
-
-
0.50
5.00
vs Similar (26)
1.08
1.12
1.23
1.23
0.92
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
63.3%
Under 1.5
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
35.0%
Under 2.5
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
16.1%
Under 3.5
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
40.5%
No
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.2%
1-1
13.7%
0-0
13.5%
2-0
11.1%
2-1
8.4%
0-1
8.0%
3-0
5.0%
1-2
4.7%
Dunfermline goals ↓
Queen's Park goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
8.0%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
1
15%
14%
4.7%
1.2%
0.2%
2
11%
8.4%
3.2%
0.8%
0.2%
3
5.0%
3.7%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.7%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dunfermline goals (down), columns = Queen's Park goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Partick
1.85
Livingston
1.73
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Inverness CT
0.99
Dunfermline is 0.40 points better than Queen's Park in terms of average points per game (1.54 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Livingston
1.52
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr Utd
1.06
Morton
1.00
Queen's Park
0.97
Inverness CT
0.87
Dunfermline is 0.47 goals better than Queen's Park in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livingston
0.91
Partick
0.96
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queen's Park
1.33
Morton
1.38
Inverness CT
1.59
Dunfermline is 0.31 goals better than Queen's Park in terms of goals conceded per game (1.02 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dunfermline
For 4.8 · Against 3.5 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.6 · Against 10.6 · Total 18.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Queen's Park
For 2.0 · Against 7.0 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.0 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 8.5 · Total 19.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dunfermline
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
8.2
8.1
1.1
0.7
1.5
20.5
23.0
18.7
vs Stronger (3)
9.0
13.0
5.0
1.3
1.0
2.0
19.5
24.0
15.0
vs Similar (44)
8.0
7.0
8.7
1.1
0.7
1.6
20.7
22.8
19.3
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
25%
20%
29%
16%
7%
26%
50%
60%
43%
% under line
75%
80%
71%
84%
93%
74%
50%
40%
57%
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queen's Park
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
6.0
12.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
19.0
20.0
18.0
vs Stronger (3)
12.0
-
12.0
0.7
-
0.7
18.0
-
18.0
vs Similar (45)
6.0
6.0
-
0.1
0.1
0.0
20.0
20.0
-
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
% under line
50%
100%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Morton
10.9
Partick
10.4
Ayr Utd
10.0
Livingston
9.9
Arbroath
9.6
Dunfermline
9.3
Inverness CT
9.1
Queen's Park
9.0
Stenhousemuir
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Morton
4.5
Partick
4.4
Livingston
4.2
Ayr Utd
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Arbroath
3.6
Inverness CT
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
25.4
Livingston
25.3
Ayr Utd
22.0
Morton
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Arbroath
20.9
Dunfermline
20.7
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
41.4%
Under 9.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
61.7%
Under 3.5
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
54.1%
Under 21.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dunfermline or Draw
80.2%
Avg Implied -
49%
31%
20%
covers Dunfermline + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline or Queen's Park
69.3%
Avg Implied -
49%
31%
20%
covers Dunfermline + Queen's Park
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Queen's Park
50.5%
Avg Implied -
49%
31%
20%
covers Draw + Queen's Park
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5
Over
73.9%
Under
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5
Over
38.9%
Under
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5
Over
15.3%
Under
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 3.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 0.5
Over
53.1%
Under
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 1.5
Over
17.6%
Under
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 2.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dunfermline, so a minus line means Dunfermline give that many goals of a start and Queen's Park receive them. At -1, Dunfermline must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dunfermline win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dunfermline)
Dunfermline -2
9.1%
Draw -2
15.3%
Queen's Park +2
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dunfermline)
Dunfermline -1
24.4%
Draw -1
25.1%
Queen's Park +1
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dunfermline)
Dunfermline +1
80.2%
Draw +1
13.6%
Queen's Park -1
6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dunfermline)
Dunfermline +2
93.8%
Draw +2
4.8%
Queen's Park -2
1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dunfermline
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.40
0.94
0.19
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.38
0.79
0.21
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queen's Park
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.71
0.64
0.31
0.81
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.50
-
-
0.00
3.50
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.58
0.77
0.69
0.31
0.46
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.7%
Under 0.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
30.8%
Under 1.5
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.5%
Under 2.5
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.7%
Under
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 0.5 HT
Over
32.9%
Under
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dunfermline
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.40
0.94
0.31
0.79
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.85
0.38
0.86
0.29
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queen's Park
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.43
0.64
0.56
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
-
-
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.54
0.46
0.54
0.62
0.54
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.3%
Under 0.5
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.2%
Under 1.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.9%
Under 2.5
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.8%
Under
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.6%
Under
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 0.5 2H
Over
38.5%
Under
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.9%
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Over 19.5 fouls
70.5%
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Under 10.5 corners
70.4%
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No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
Dunfermline's squad is €2m more valuable than Queen's Park's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (9)
€2m
LIV (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
Dunfermline and Queen's Park have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
Dunfermline and Queen's Park have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Dunfermline's defence is €1m more valuable than Queen's Park's (€2m vs €1m).
Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
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Stenhousemuir
Partick
Raith Rovers
Arbroath
Livingston
Ayr Utd
Inverness CT
Morton