Dunfermline vs Raith Rovers Result & Analysis

Date: 28/08/2026

Time: 18:30

Final 1-0

Dunfermline

43%

33%

24%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Raith Rovers

Scotland: Championship

Referee: -

1 Model Analysis 2 Goal Analysis 3 Team Strengths Analysis 4 Props Analysis 5 Double Chance 6 Home & Away Over/Under 7 Handicap 8 Half Time Goals O/U 9 Half Time Home & Away O/U 10 Second Half Goals O/U 11 Second Half Home & Away O/U

12 Top picks for this game 14 Squad value 15 Games History 16 Overall Statistics 17 League Table

Match preview & prediction

Dunfermline’s recent slump of two straight defeats has left the side looking vulnerable, yet the model still favours a home win at 43%. The draw sits at 33% and the away side’s chances are 24%. The expected total of 2.0 goals points to a tight affair, with the most likely scoreline 0-0 carrying a 14.7% probability. Dunfermline, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.64 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded, while Raith Rovers on the road have managed just 0.5 goals and have given up 0.93. The model’s selections reflect a strong edge on low-scoring outcomes: Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.5% with an 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (99.0% with an 8% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7% with a 4% edge), Under 5.5 (98.3% with a 7% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.7% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7% with a 6% edge) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.9% with a 5% edge). The model’s prediction of a home win remains the single most likely outcome.

Results analysis

Dunfermline’s recent win over Raith Rovers extended their good run at home, and the model’s pick of a home win proved correct as the final score was 1-0, a home victory. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 43% probability and the model’s call was right. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.9%, Under 6.5 at 99.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.0%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.8%, Under 5.5 at 98.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.8%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.7%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.2%. All picks settled as predicted.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dunfermline win✓ Hit

43.1%

Avg Implied 36.9% · @ 2.48

Edge

+6.2%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

2.63

Betfair

2.55

Betano

2.50

William Hil

2.50

Dafabet

2.50

Draw✗ Miss

32.6%

Avg Implied 27.7% · @ 3.30

Edge

+4.9%

Best 5 market prices

Dafabet

3.40

Pinnacle

3.40

Betfair

3.40

Marathonbet

3.36

1xBet

3.36

Raith Rovers win✗ Miss

24.3%

Avg Implied 35.4% · @ 2.58

Edge

-11.2%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

2.66

Dafabet

2.65

10Bet

2.62

Betano

2.62

Superbet

2.62

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Dunfermline

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.8

Avg scored

1.4

Avg conceded

1.4

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.57	0.80	1.88	0.50	1.21	1.14
vs Stronger (2)	2.00	1.50	3.00	0.00	1.00	3.00
vs Similar (26)	1.50	0.77	1.64	0.50	1.33	1.08
vs Weaker (2)	2.00	0.50	4.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
Clean sheet %	57% (+27pp vs league)

This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Raith Rovers

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.4

Avg scored

1.4

Avg conceded

1.0

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.33	0.97	2.20	1.00	0.47	0.93
vs Stronger (1)	0.00	1.00	-	-	0.00	1.00
vs Similar (28)	1.39	0.96	2.29	1.00	0.50	0.93
vs Weaker (1)	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	-	-
Clean sheet %	43% (+14pp vs league)

This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under

Over 1.5

61.1%

@ 1.27-12.0%

Under 1.5

38.9%

@ 3.46+12.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.30

BetVictor

1.29

Betfair

1.29

Superbet

1.28

Pinnacle

1.28

Under

Unibet

3.80

Pinnacle

3.62

Bet365

3.50

Betfair

3.50

10Bet

3.45

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

32.7%

@ 1.89-16.7%

Under 2.5

67.3%

@ 1.85+16.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

SBO

2.00

Pinnacle

1.95

Bet365

1.95

10Bet

1.90

Betfair

1.90

Under

Unibet

1.95

Pinnacle

1.88

Betfair

1.87

Betano

1.87

10Bet

1.85

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under

Over 3.5

14.5%

@ 3.18-14.7%

Under 3.5

85.5%

@ 1.31+14.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

3.41

BetVictor

3.30

Betfair

3.25

Bet365

3.25

Superbet

3.20

Under

Unibet

1.35

Betano

1.34

10Bet

1.33

Betfair

1.33

Bet365

1.33

Both teams to scoreActual: No

Yes

40.4%

@ 1.69-14.4%

59.6%

@ 2.05+14.4%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

Bet365

1.73

William Hil

1.73

Betfair

1.73

Superbet

1.73

Betano

1.67

Unibet

2.15

Betfair

2.10

Betano

2.07

1xBet

2.06

BetVictor

2.05

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

0-0

14.7%@ 9.69+10.0%

1-0 ✓

14.5%@ 8.00+9.0%

1-1

14.4%@ 6.10+7.1%

0-1

9.7%@ 8.16+4.2%

2-0

9.4%@ 11.85+5.7%

2-1

7.8%@ 8.81+2.7%

1-2

5.4%@ 9.07+0.5%

0-2

4.6%@ 12.20+0.9%

Dunfermline goals ↓

	Raith Rovers goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	15%	9.7%	4.6%	1.3%	0.3%
1	15%	14%	5.4%	1.5%	0.3%
2	9.4%	7.8%	3.2%	0.9%	0.2%
3	3.7%	3.1%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%
4	1.1%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dunfermline goals (down), columns = Raith Rovers goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Partick

1.85

Livingston

1.73

Dunfermline

1.54

Arbroath

1.48

Raith Rovers

1.25

Stenhousemuir

1.25

Queen's Park

1.14

Ayr Utd

1.08

Morton

1.04

Inverness CT

0.99

Dunfermline is 0.29 points better than Raith Rovers in terms of average points per game (1.54 vs 1.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Livingston

1.52

Partick

1.50

Dunfermline

1.44

Stenhousemuir

1.25

Arbroath

1.25

Raith Rovers

1.19

Ayr Utd

1.06

Morton

1.00

Queen's Park

0.97

Inverness CT

0.87

Dunfermline is 0.24 goals better than Raith Rovers in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.19).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Livingston

0.91

Partick

0.96

Stenhousemuir

1.00

Dunfermline

1.02

Arbroath

1.15

Raith Rovers

1.17

Ayr Utd

1.31

Queen's Park

1.33

Morton

1.38

Inverness CT

1.59

Dunfermline is 0.15 goals better than Raith Rovers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.02 vs 1.17).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Dunfermline

For 4.4 · Against 3.4 · Total 7.9

🚩 Corners

ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

For 1.9 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.3

🟨 Cards

ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

For 8.3 · Against 11.2 · Total 19.6

⚠️ Fouls

ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Raith Rovers

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Dunfermline

Split	Corners			Cards			Fouls
Split	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy
Overall (50)	8.3	8.2	8.4	1.2	0.7	1.7	20.8	23.0	19.5
vs Stronger (3)	9.0	13.0	5.0	1.3	1.0	2.0	19.5	24.0	15.0
vs Similar (44)	8.2	7.0	8.9	1.2	0.7	1.7	21.1	22.8	20.1
vs Weaker (3)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
% over line	31%	20%	38%	18%	8%	29%	54%	60%	50%
% under line	69%	80%	62%	82%	92%	71%	46%	40%	50%

This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Raith Rovers

Split	Corners			Cards			Fouls
Split	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy
Overall (50)	-	-	-	0.1	0.0	0.2	-	-	-
vs Stronger (1)	-	-	-	0.0	-	0.0	-	-	-
vs Similar (47)	-	-	-	0.1	0.0	0.2	-	-	-
vs Weaker (2)	-	-	-	0.5	0.5	-	-	-	-
% over line	-	-	-	2%	0%	4%	-	-	-
% under line	-	-	-	98%	100%	96%	-	-	-

This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game

Morton

10.9

Partick

10.4

Ayr Utd

10.0

Livingston

9.9

Arbroath

9.6

Dunfermline

9.3

Inverness CT

9.1

Queen's Park

9.0

Stenhousemuir

8.5

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game

Stenhousemuir

4.8

Morton

4.5

Partick

4.4

Livingston

4.2

Ayr Utd

4.0

Dunfermline

3.9

Arbroath

3.6

Inverness CT

3.2

Raith Rovers

3.0

Queen's Park

2.5

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game

Stenhousemuir

25.4

Livingston

25.3

Ayr Utd

22.0

Morton

21.6

Inverness CT

21.6

Arbroath

20.9

Dunfermline

20.7

Partick

19.9

Queen's Park

19.0

Corners O/U 9.5

Over 9.5

41.3%

@ 1.80-10.3%

Under 9.5

58.7%

@ 1.91+10.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.87

Superbet

1.85

Pinnacle

1.85

Bet365

1.83

Marathonbet

1.81

Under

Unibet

2.14

Pinnacle

1.92

1xBet

1.91

Betano

1.87

Superbet

1.85

Cards O/U 3.5

Over 3.5

71.3%

Under 3.5

28.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Fouls O/U 21.5

Over 21.5

54.1%

Under 21.5

45.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

Dunfermline or Draw✓ Hit

75.7%

Avg Implied 64.3% · @ 1.44

Edge

+11.4%

43%

33%

24%

covers Dunfermline + Draw

Best 5 market prices

Betfair

1.50

Betano

1.50

10Bet

1.45

William Hil

1.44

Bet365

1.44

Dunfermline or Raith Rovers✓ Hit

67.4%

Avg Implied 72.4% · @ 1.28

Edge

-5.1%

43%

33%

24%

covers Dunfermline + Raith Rovers

Best 5 market prices

William Hil

1.33

Betano

1.31

Betfair

1.30

BetVictor

1.29

Bet365

1.28

Draw or Raith Rovers✗ Miss

56.9%

Avg Implied 63.2% · @ 1.46

Edge

-6.3%

43%

33%

24%

covers Draw + Raith Rovers

Best 5 market prices

Betano

1.53

Betfair

1.50

10Bet

1.50

Superbet

1.47

Unibet

1.47

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.

Dunfermline over/under 0.5Actual: Over

Over

69.5%

@ 1.27-3.1%

Under

30.5%

@ 3.38+3.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.33

Betano

1.30

BetVictor

1.29

Betfair

1.29

Superbet

1.29

Under

Unibet

3.55

Pinnacle

3.54

10Bet

3.45

Marathonbet

3.42

1xBet

3.42

Dunfermline over/under 1.5Actual: Under

Over

33.3%

@ 2.35-6.2%

Under

66.7%

@ 1.54+6.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.51

Bet365

2.50

BetVictor

2.40

Betfair

2.38

Superbet

2.35

Under

Unibet

1.58

Betano

1.57

10Bet

1.55

Marathonbet

1.54

1xBet

1.54

Dunfermline over/under 2.5Actual: Under

Over

11.8%

@ 5.26-5.7%

Under

88.2%

@ 1.12+5.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

BetVictor

5.75

Betfair

5.50

Bet365

5.50

1xBet

5.30

Marathonbet

5.30

Under

Betano

1.15

Betfair

1.13

Bet365

1.12

Unibet

1.12

10Bet

1.12

Dunfermline over/under 3.5Actual: Under

Over

3.3%

@ 10.00-6.1%

Under

96.7%

@ 1.03+6.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

10.50

Betano

9.50

Under

Betano

1.04

Bet365

1.02

Raith Rovers over/under 0.5Actual: Under

Over

56.2%

@ 1.28-15.9%

Under

43.8%

@ 3.32+15.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.33

Superbet

1.30

Betano

1.30

Betfair

1.29

BetVictor

1.29

Under

Pinnacle

3.48

Unibet

3.40

Marathonbet

3.34

1xBet

3.34

Betano

3.30

Raith Rovers over/under 1.5Actual: Under

Over

20.1%

@ 2.41-18.4%

Under

79.9%

@ 1.51+18.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.53

Bet365

2.50

Betfair

2.50

Superbet

2.42

Betano

2.40

Under

Unibet

1.53

Betano

1.53

1xBet

1.51

Marathonbet

1.51

Pinnacle

1.51

Raith Rovers over/under 2.5Actual: Under

Over

5.1%

@ 5.41-11.9%

Under

94.9%

@ 1.11+11.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

BetVictor

5.50

Bet365

5.50

Betfair

5.50

10Bet

5.50

Superbet

5.50

Under

Betano

1.14

Betfair

1.13

Bet365

1.12

Superbet

1.11

10Bet

1.11

Raith Rovers over/under 3.5Actual: Under

Over

1.0%

@ 10.25-8.1%

Under

99.0%

@ 1.02+8.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

10.50

Betano

10.00

Under

Betano

1.03

Bet365

1.02

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Dunfermline, so a minus line means Dunfermline give that many goals of a start and Raith Rovers receive them. At -1, Dunfermline must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dunfermline win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.

Handicap -2 (Dunfermline)Actual: Raith Rovers

Dunfermline -2

6.5%

@ 10.43-2.0%

Draw -2

12.9%

@ 6.55-0.5%

Raith Rovers +2

80.6%

@ 1.12+2.5%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Betfair

14.00

Bet365

11.00

Unibet

10.00

Marathonbet

6.70

Draw

Betfair

7.50

Bet365

7.50

Unibet

6.50

Marathonbet

4.70

Away

Unibet

1.14

Betfair

1.13

Bet365

1.12

Marathonbet

1.11

Handicap -1 (Dunfermline)Actual: Draw

Dunfermline -1

19.4%

@ 4.88+1.3%

Draw -1

23.7%

@ 4.11+2.2%

Raith Rovers +1

56.9%

@ 1.46-3.5%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

5.00

10Bet

5.00

Betfair

5.00

Marathonbet

4.90

Unibet

4.50

Draw

Bet365

4.33

Betfair

4.20

Marathonbet

4.05

10Bet

4.00

Unibet

3.95

Away

Unibet

1.50

10Bet

1.50

Marathonbet

1.44

Bet365

1.44

Betfair

1.44

Handicap +1 (Dunfermline)Actual: Dunfermline

Dunfermline +1

75.7%

@ 1.44+13.9%

Draw +1

16.1%

@ 4.20-5.0%

Raith Rovers -1

8.2%

@ 5.19-8.9%

Best 5 market prices

Home

10Bet

1.45

Betfair

1.44

Bet365

1.44

Unibet

1.44

Marathonbet

1.41

Draw

Betfair

4.33

Bet365

4.33

10Bet

4.20

Marathonbet

4.15

Unibet

4.00

Away

Betfair

5.50

10Bet

5.25

Marathonbet

5.20

Bet365

5.00

Unibet

5.00

Handicap +2 (Dunfermline)Actual: Dunfermline

Dunfermline +2

91.8%

@ 1.11+13.0%

Draw +2

6.2%

@ 6.81-6.6%

Raith Rovers -2

2.0%

@ 10.57-6.3%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Unibet

1.12

Bet365

1.12

Betfair

1.11

Marathonbet

1.10

Draw

Betfair

8.00

Bet365

7.50

Unibet

7.00

Marathonbet

4.75

Away

Betfair

14.00

Bet365

11.00

Unibet

10.50

Marathonbet

6.80

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Dunfermline

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.2

Avg scored

0.7

Avg conceded

0.5

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.73	0.40	1.00	0.19	0.43	0.64
vs Stronger (2)	1.00	1.00	2.00	0.00	0.00	2.00
vs Similar (26)	0.69	0.38	0.86	0.21	0.50	0.58
vs Weaker (2)	1.00	0.00	2.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Clean sheet %	70% (+41pp vs league)

This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Raith Rovers

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.4

Avg scored

0.8

Avg conceded

0.6

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.53	0.57	0.87	0.53	0.20	0.60
vs Stronger (1)	0.00	1.00	-	-	0.00	1.00
vs Similar (28)	0.54	0.54	0.86	0.50	0.21	0.57
vs Weaker (1)	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	-	-
Clean sheet %	57% (+27pp vs league)

This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under

Over 0.5

66.1%

@ 1.37-1.5%

Under 0.5

33.9%

@ 2.86+1.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.44

Bet365

1.40

Superbet

1.39

BetVictor

1.39

Pinnacle

1.38

Under

Pinnacle

3.01

Betfair

3.00

1xBet

2.91

Marathonbet

2.91

William Hil

2.90

Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under

Over 1.5

28.8%

@ 2.76-4.9%

Under 1.5

71.2%

@ 1.40+4.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

3.00

Pinnacle

2.91

Betfair

2.88

Betano

2.85

Superbet

2.75

Under

Unibet

1.45

Betano

1.42

10Bet

1.42

Pinnacle

1.41

BetVictor

1.41

Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

8.9%

@ 6.88-4.5%

Under 2.5

91.1%

@ 1.07+4.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

7.50

BetVictor

7.50

Bet365

7.00

William Hil

7.00

Superbet

6.60

Under

Betano

1.10

Bet365

1.08

Superbet

1.08

William Hil

1.08

Betfair

1.06

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.

Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under

Over

44.6%

@ 2.03-1.1%

Under

55.4%

@ 1.70+1.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.13

Betano

2.07

Superbet

2.07

10Bet

2.00

Marathonbet

2.00

Under

Unibet

1.75

10Bet

1.73

Pinnacle

1.70

Betano

1.70

Marathonbet

1.69

Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

11.5%

@ 6.36-3.0%

Under

88.5%

@ 1.08+3.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

6.60

1xBet

6.60

10Bet

6.25

Betano

6.00

Under

Betano

1.11

10Bet

1.09

Marathonbet

1.06

1xBet

1.06

Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

2.2%

@ 17.50-3.3%

Under

97.8%

@ 1.01+3.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

10Bet

23.00

Betano

12.00

Under

Betano

1.02

10Bet

1.01

Raith Rovers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under

Over

40.0%

@ 2.07-4.8%

Under

60.0%

@ 1.68+4.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.15

Pinnacle

2.14

Superbet

2.12

10Bet

2.05

1xBet

2.03

Under

Unibet

1.72

10Bet

1.70

Pinnacle

1.68

Marathonbet

1.67

1xBet

1.67

Raith Rovers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

8.3%

@ 6.56-5.8%

Under

91.7%

@ 1.07+5.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

6.80

1xBet

6.80

Betano

6.40

10Bet

6.25

Under

Betano

1.10

10Bet

1.08

1xBet

1.06

Marathonbet

1.06

Raith Rovers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

1.2%

@ 17.75-4.2%

Under

98.8%

@ 1.01+4.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

10Bet

23.00

Betano

12.50

Under

10Bet

1.01

Betano

1.01

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Dunfermline

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.6

Avg scored

0.7

Avg conceded

0.9

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.83	0.40	0.88	0.31	0.79	0.50
vs Stronger (2)	1.00	0.50	1.00	0.00	1.00	1.00
vs Similar (26)	0.81	0.38	0.79	0.29	0.83	0.50
vs Weaker (2)	1.00	0.50	2.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
Clean sheet %	73% (+44pp vs league)

This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Raith Rovers

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.0

Avg scored

0.6

Avg conceded

0.4

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.80	0.40	1.33	0.47	0.27	0.33
vs Stronger (1)	0.00	0.00	-	-	0.00	0.00
vs Similar (28)	0.86	0.43	1.43	0.50	0.29	0.36
vs Weaker (1)	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	-
Clean sheet %	63% (+34pp vs league)

This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

73.4%

@ 1.23-2.1%

Under 0.5

26.6%

@ 3.76+2.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

1.25

Bet365

1.25

Superbet

1.24

Betano

1.24

10Bet

1.22

Under

Betano

3.90

10Bet

3.80

Marathonbet

3.80

1xBet

3.80

Bet365

3.75

Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under

Over 1.5

36.8%

@ 2.08-7.8%

Under 1.5

63.2%

@ 1.68+7.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.20

William Hil

2.15

Superbet

2.12

Marathonbet

2.07

1xBet

2.07

Under

Betano

1.75

Unibet

1.72

10Bet

1.70

1xBet

1.67

Marathonbet

1.67

Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

13.4%

@ 4.53-7.2%

Under 2.5

86.6%

@ 1.17+7.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

5.00

William Hil

4.75

Superbet

4.50

1xBet

4.35

Marathonbet

4.35

Under

Betano

1.22

Bet365

1.17

Superbet

1.17

William Hil

1.17

Marathonbet

1.14

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.

Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over

Over

50.4%

@ 1.74-2.9%

Under

49.6%

@ 1.98+2.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

1.77

Betano

1.75

Marathonbet

1.73

10Bet

1.73

1xBet

1.72

Under

Betano

2.02

10Bet

2.00

1xBet

2.00

Superbet

1.95

Marathonbet

1.95

Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under

Over

14.7%

@ 4.53-5.7%

Under

85.3%

@ 1.16+5.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

4.75

10Bet

4.50

1xBet

4.50

Betano

4.35

Under

Betano

1.19

10Bet

1.17

1xBet

1.15

Marathonbet

1.13

Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

2.8%

@ 11.38-5.5%

Under

97.2%

@ 1.02+5.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

10Bet

13.00

Betano

9.75

Under

Betano

1.03

10Bet

1.02

Raith Rovers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under

Over

43.9%

@ 1.76-8.6%

Under

56.1%

@ 1.95+8.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

1.80

10Bet

1.77

Marathonbet

1.75

Betano

1.75

1xBet

1.74

Under

Betano

2.00

1xBet

1.97

10Bet

1.95

Marathonbet

1.92

Superbet

1.90

Raith Rovers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under

Over

12.7%

@ 4.72-6.9%

Under

87.3%

@ 1.15+6.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

4.95

10Bet

4.75

1xBet

4.70

Betano

4.50

Under

Betano

1.18

10Bet

1.15

1xBet

1.14

Marathonbet

1.12

Raith Rovers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

2.3%

@ 11.62-5.8%

Under

97.7%

@ 1.02+5.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

10Bet

13.00

Betano

10.25

Under

Betano

1.03

10Bet

1.02

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Under 7.5	99.9%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Under 6.5	99.5%	1.01	Betano 1.02	Bet365 1.01	1xBet 1.01	-	-	+6.3%	✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals	99.0%	1.02	Betano 1.03	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	+8.1%	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals	98.8%	1.01	10Bet 1.01	Betano 1.01	-	-	-	+4.2%	✓ Hit
Under 5.5	98.3%	1.03	Betano 1.04	Bet365 1.03	1xBet 1.03	Betfair 1.02	-	+6.9%	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals	97.8%	1.01	Betano 1.02	10Bet 1.01	-	-	-	+3.3%	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals	97.7%	1.02	Betano 1.03	10Bet 1.02	-	-	-	+5.8%	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals	97.2%	1.02	Betano 1.03	10Bet 1.02	-	-	-	+5.5%	✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals	96.7%	1.03	Betano 1.04	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	+6.1%	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals	94.9%	1.11	Betano 1.14	Betfair 1.13	Bet365 1.12	Superbet 1.11	10Bet 1.11	+11.9%	✓ Hit
Under 4.5	94.6%	1.09	Betano 1.13	Pinnacle 1.11	Bet365 1.11	Unibet 1.10	Betfair 1.10	+9.8%	✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap	91.8%	1.11	Unibet 1.12	Bet365 1.12	Betfair 1.11	Marathonbet 1.10	-	+13.0%	✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals	91.7%	1.07	Betano 1.10	10Bet 1.08	1xBet 1.06	Marathonbet 1.06	-	+5.8%	✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals	91.1%	1.07	Betano 1.10	Bet365 1.08	Superbet 1.08	William Hil 1.08	Betfair 1.06	+4.5%	✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals	88.5%	1.08	Betano 1.11	10Bet 1.09	Marathonbet 1.06	1xBet 1.06	-	+3.0%	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals	88.2%	1.12	Betano 1.15	Betfair 1.13	Bet365 1.12	Unibet 1.12	10Bet 1.12	+5.7%	✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals	87.3%	1.15	Betano 1.18	10Bet 1.15	1xBet 1.14	Marathonbet 1.12	-	+6.9%	✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals	86.6%	1.17	Betano 1.22	Bet365 1.17	Superbet 1.17	William Hil 1.17	Marathonbet 1.14	+7.2%	✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards	86.2%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Under 3.5	85.5%	1.31	Unibet 1.35	Betano 1.34	10Bet 1.33	Betfair 1.33	Bet365 1.33	+14.7%	✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals	85.3%	1.16	Betano 1.19	10Bet 1.17	1xBet 1.15	Marathonbet 1.13	-	+5.7%	✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap	80.6%	1.12	Unibet 1.14	Betfair 1.13	Bet365 1.12	Marathonbet 1.11	-	+2.5%	✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners	80.3%	1.33	Unibet 1.43	Superbet 1.36	Betano 1.30	1xBet 1.30	Marathonbet 1.28	+11.3%	-
Away under 1.5 goals	79.9%	1.51	Unibet 1.53	Betano 1.53	1xBet 1.51	Marathonbet 1.51	Pinnacle 1.51	+18.4%	✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls	76.7%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Home or Draw	75.7%	1.44	Betfair 1.50	Betano 1.50	10Bet 1.45	William Hil 1.44	Bet365 1.44	+11.4%	✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap	75.7%	1.44	10Bet 1.45	Betfair 1.44	Bet365 1.44	Unibet 1.44	Marathonbet 1.41	+13.9%	✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals	73.4%	1.23	William Hil 1.25	Bet365 1.25	Superbet 1.24	Betano 1.24	10Bet 1.22	-2.1%	✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards	71.3%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Under 1.5 HT goals	71.2%	1.40	Unibet 1.45	Betano 1.42	10Bet 1.42	Pinnacle 1.41	BetVictor 1.41	+4.9%	✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners	70.6%	1.57	Unibet 1.70	Bet365 1.67	1xBet 1.56	Superbet 1.55	Pinnacle 1.55	+11.8%	-
Over 19.5 fouls	70.5%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

LIV (25)

€4m

DUN (26)

€4m

PAR (20)

€3m

AU (17)

€2m

QP (19)

€2m

RR (18)

€2m

MOR (14)

€1m

ARB (15)

€1m

IC (6)

€1m

STE (2)

€0m

Dunfermline's squad is €2m more valuable than Raith Rovers's (€4m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

DUN (9)

€2m

LIV (7)

€1m

PAR (6)

€1m

QP (8)

€1m

AU (6)

€1m

RR (5)

€1m

MOR (4)

€0m

IC (3)

€0m

ARB (3)

€0m

STE (1)

€0m

Dunfermline and Raith Rovers have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

LIV (8)

€1m

PAR (6)

€1m

RR (6)

€1m

DUN (4)

€0m

MOR (4)

€0m

ARB (5)

€0m

IC (2)

€0m

AU (1)

€0m

QP (1)

€0m

STE (0)

€0m

Dunfermline and Raith Rovers have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

DUN (13)

€2m

LIV (10)

€1m

AU (10)

€1m

PAR (8)

€1m

QP (10)

€1m

RR (7)

€0m

MOR (6)

€0m

ARB (7)

€0m

STE (1)

€0m

IC (1)

€0m

Dunfermline's defence is €2m more valuable than Raith Rovers's (€2m vs €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings

DUN wins

Draws

RR wins

Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dunfermline vs Raith Rovers · H/A from DUN

Date	H/A	Game	Score
14/03/26	H	DUN Vs Raith Rovers	3-0
27/12/25	A	Raith Rovers Vs DUN	1-2
17/10/25	H	DUN Vs Raith Rovers	2-0
22/08/25	A	Raith Rovers Vs DUN	2-0
14/03/25	A	Raith Rovers Vs DUN	2-0
01/02/25	H	DUN Vs Raith Rovers	3-1
14/12/24	A	Raith Rovers Vs DUN	2-0
13/09/24	H	DUN Vs Raith Rovers	2-0

Dunfermline

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
22/08/26	A	Livingston Vs DUN	2-0
15/08/26	H	DUN Vs Ross County	1-2
08/08/26	H	DUN Vs Ayr Utd	1-1
01/08/26	A	Inverness CT Vs DUN	0-0
26/07/26	A	ST Mirren Vs DUN	0-1
21/07/26	H	DUN Vs Cove Rangers	5-0
14/07/26	H	DUN Vs Dumbarton	4-1
11/07/26	A	East Kilbride Vs DUN	3-0
23/05/26	A	Celtic Vs DUN	3-1
15/05/26	A	Partick Vs DUN	2-1

Raith Rovers

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
22/08/26	H	RR Vs Ayr Utd	2-0
08/08/26	A	Queen's Park Vs RR	1-2
01/08/26	H	RR Vs Stenhousemuir	1-1
21/07/26	H	RR Vs Peterhead	1-0
18/07/26	A	Hamilton Academical Vs RR	1-1
14/07/26	A	Kilmarnock Vs RR	0-0
11/07/26	H	RR Vs Elgin	3-1
01/05/26	H	RR Vs Ross County	3-2
24/04/26	A	ST Johnstone Vs RR	2-0
18/04/26	A	Arbroath Vs RR	2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dunfermline

Scotland: Championship

Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WDDLL	1.68
Home	DWWDL	1.85
Away	LLWDL	1.50

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	48%	54%	42%
AVG goals	2.46	2.62	2.29
Over 1.5 %	72%	73%	71%
Over 2.5 %	48%	54%	42%
Over 3.5 %	22%	27%	17%
Scored	1.46	1.73	1.17
Conceded	1.00	0.88	1.12
BTTS	40%	42%	38%
Clean Sheet	46%	50%	42%
Corners	8.31	8.20	8.38
Cards	4.46	3.60	5.00

Raith Rovers

Scotland: Championship

Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	DWDWW	1.44
Home	WWWDW	1.84
Away	LLDDW	1.04

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	40%	56%	24%
AVG goals	2.58	3.12	2.04
Over 1.5 %	74%	88%	60%
Over 2.5 %	44%	52%	36%
Over 3.5 %	26%	36%	16%
Scored	1.44	1.96	0.92
Conceded	1.14	1.16	1.12
BTTS	42%	48%	36%
Clean Sheet	38%	36%	40%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	3.00	1.00	5.00

🏆 17. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Stenhousemuir	4	10	75%	2.5	8	2	+6	2.5	100%	25%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	0.5	-
2	Partick	4	8	50%	2.0	4	1	+3	1.2	50%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	1	1	1	1.0	0.2	-
3	Raith Rovers	4	7	50%	1.8	5	3	+2	2.0	75%	25%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	1	1	0	1.2	0.8	-
4	Arbroath	4	7	50%	1.8	3	3	+0	1.5	50%	25%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	0.8	0.8	-
5	Livingston	4	6	50%	1.5	4	3	+1	1.8	75%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	4	1	1	1	1.0	0.8	-
6	Ayr Utd	4	5	25%	1.2	4	4	+0	2.0	100%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	1	0	1	1.0	1.0	-
7	Dunfermline	4	5	25%	1.2	2	3	-1	1.2	50%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	4	2	0	2	0.5	0.8	-
8	Inverness CT	4	3	0%	0.8	2	4	-2	1.5	50%	25%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	0.5	1.0	-
9	Morton	4	1	0%	0.2	2	6	-4	2.0	75%	25%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	0.5	1.5	-
10	Queen's Park	4	1	0%	0.2	1	6	-5	1.8	75%	25%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	1	0	1	0.2	1.5	-

Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

← all matches

Dunfermline vs Raith Rovers Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Dunfermline

Raith Rovers

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Dunfermline

🚩 Corners

🟨 Cards

⚠️ Fouls

Raith Rovers

🚩 Corners

🟨 Cards

⚠️ Fouls

Dunfermline

Raith Rovers

🚩 Total Corners

🟨 Total Cards

⚠️ Total Fouls

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Dunfermline

Raith Rovers

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Dunfermline

Raith Rovers

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

Head-to-head

Dunfermline

Raith Rovers

📊 16. Overall Statistics

🏆 17. League Table

A Pro feature