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Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart Result & Analysis

Date: 16/05/2026
Time: 13:30
Final 2-2
Eintracht Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt
Vs
34%
22%
44%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart
Germany: Bundesliga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 34% win probability against VfB Stuttgart in the Germany: Bundesliga on 2026-05-16, with 22% for the draw and 44% for VfB Stuttgart. The model estimates around 4.1 total goals, with 6+ the most likely total (22%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (7.8%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (92%), Over 2.5 (77%), BTTS Yes (76%), Under 21.5 fouls (71%).

Results analysis

Eintracht Frankfurt finished 2-2 against VfB Stuttgart (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 34% home win, 22% draw and 44% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (92%), Over 2.5 (77%), BTTS Yes (76%). Missed: Under 21.5 fouls (71%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Eintracht Frankfurt win✗ Miss
33.8%
Avg Implied 27.8% · @ 3.35
Edge
+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
21.8%
Avg Implied 22.1% · @ 4.22
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
VfB Stuttgart win✗ Miss
44.4%
Avg Implied 50.1% · @ 1.86
Edge
-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D10W12L22D21W13L11D12L23LH·SC 01/03A·FC 08/03H·1. 14/03A·FSV22/03H·1. 05/04A·VFL11/04H·RB 18/04A·FC 25/04H·HAM02/05A·BOR08/05
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.831.291.571.442.06
vs Stronger (10)1.002.801.002.801.002.80
vs Similar (15)1.531.401.430.861.621.88
vs Weaker (5)1.601.201.501.001.671.33
Clean sheet %23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (VfB Stuttgart) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L10W02L52W02L40W24L11D33D31WH·FC 12/03H·RB 15/03A·FC 19/03A·FC 22/03H·BOR04/04H·HAM12/04A·BAY19/04H·WER26/04A·18902/05H·BAY09/05
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.171.431.811.192.571.71
vs Stronger (11)1.361.910.831.832.002.00
vs Similar (11)2.451.002.500.752.331.67
vs Weaker (8)2.881.382.001.003.171.50
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Eintracht Frankfurt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%2%06%115%219%320%416%522%6+
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
92.0%
Under 1.5
8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
77.1%
@ 1.29+4.6%
Under 2.5
22.9%
@ 3.40-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
57.9%
Under 3.5
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
75.9%
No
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
7.8%
1-2
7.7%
2-2 ✓
7.3%
2-1
6.7%
1-3
5.6%
2-3
5.3%
3-2
4.6%
3-1
4.2%
Eintracht Frankfurt goals ↓
VfB Stuttgart goals →
01234
02.4%3.0%4.1%2.9%1.6%
12.5%7.8%7.7%5.6%3.0%
23.1%6.7%7.3%5.3%2.9%
31.9%4.2%4.6%3.3%1.8%
40.9%2.0%2.2%1.6%0.9%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Eintracht Frankfurt goals (down), columns = VfB Stuttgart goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
SC Paderborn 07
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
VfL Wolfsburg
0.83
FC St. Pauli
0.76
1. FC Heidenheim
0.76
Eintracht Frankfurt is 0.53 points worse than VfB Stuttgart in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.82).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
Union Berlin
1.29
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
VfL Wolfsburg
1.28
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
1. FC Heidenheim
1.21
Hamburger SV
1.18
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC St. Pauli
0.85
Eintracht Frankfurt is 0.29 goals worse than VfB Stuttgart in terms of goals scored per game (1.79 vs 2.09).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
RB Leipzig
1.38
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC St. Pauli
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
VfL Wolfsburg
1.97
1. FC Heidenheim
2.12
Eintracht Frankfurt is 0.47 goals worse than VfB Stuttgart in terms of goals conceded per game (1.91 vs 1.44).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
VfL Wolfsburg
45%
Hamburger SV
45%
FC St. Pauli
44%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
1. FC Heidenheim
42%
Union Berlin
40%
Eintracht Frankfurt is 2.7 percentage points worse than VfB Stuttgart in terms of average possession (55% vs 58%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt

For 5.5 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.8

🚩 Corners

16026947946778355456568131610148891111A·BORH·HAMA·FC H·RB A·VFLH·1. A·FSVH·1. A·FC H·SC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6

🟨 Cards

803712111212124212123831333633A·BORH·HAMA·FC H·RB A·VFLH·1. A·FSVH·1. A·FC H·SC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.6 · Against 9.9 · Total 18.5

⚠️ Fouls

240815135131177891075125981391123182414171717142120A·BORH·HAMA·FC H·RB A·VFLH·1. A·FSVH·1. A·FC H·SC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart

For 6.4 · Against 4.2 · Total 10.6

🚩 Corners

160765414231182525211456131391614107715114H·BAYA·189H·WERA·BAYH·HAMH·BORA·FC A·FC H·RB H·FC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.2

🟨 Cards

902123121243163122423513649362H·BAYA·189H·WERH·HAMH·BORA·FC A·FC H·RB H·FC A·FSV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 11.0 · Total 21.6

⚠️ Fouls

270138918810361014101214111665161892127189242225222127H·BAYA·189H·WERA·BAYH·HAMH·BORA·FC A·FC H·RB H·FC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.29.29.23.73.83.619.918.820.9
vs Stronger (18)9.19.78.23.33.03.819.918.222.0
vs Similar (24)9.59.99.14.24.73.920.218.821.2
vs Weaker (8)8.66.011.22.83.22.218.920.217.5
% over line48%46%50%44%58%31%38%33%42%
% under line52%54%50%56%42%69%62%67%58%
This opponent (VfB Stuttgart) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.910.29.63.93.84.122.523.321.6
vs Stronger (16)9.99.99.94.34.93.922.125.019.8
vs Similar (17)10.110.49.63.53.13.923.322.424.2
vs Weaker (17)9.810.29.44.13.74.522.022.921.0
% over line54%60%48%46%52%40%54%60%48%
% under line46%40%52%54%48%60%46%40%52%
This opponent (Eintracht Frankfurt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
VfL Wolfsburg
11.2
RB Leipzig
10.5
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.2
VfB Stuttgart
9.9
SC Paderborn 07
9.8
Hamburger SV
9.8
FC Augsburg
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
Union Berlin
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.4
FSV Mainz 05
9.4
FC St. Pauli
9.3
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.2
1. FC Heidenheim
9.2
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.1
Borussia Dortmund
9.1
SC Freiburg
8.5

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
Werder Bremen
4.6
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
1. FC Köln
4.5
FSV Mainz 05
4.4
Bayer Leverkusen
4.4
FC Augsburg
4.1
Union Berlin
4.0
VfB Stuttgart
4.0
1899 Hoffenheim
4.0
Bayern München
3.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
SC Freiburg
3.8
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.8
1. FC Heidenheim
3.8
VfL Wolfsburg
3.7
Borussia Dortmund
3.6
FC St. Pauli
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.5

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
SC Paderborn 07
24.5
Hamburger SV
24.0
SC Freiburg
23.0
1899 Hoffenheim
22.7
VfB Stuttgart
22.5
Borussia Dortmund
22.1
FSV Mainz 05
22.0
FC Augsburg
22.0
Union Berlin
21.8
1. FC Heidenheim
21.4
Werder Bremen
20.7
1. FC Köln
20.6
VfL Wolfsburg
20.4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.3
FC St. Pauli
20.2
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.9
RB Leipzig
19.9
Bayer Leverkusen
19.6
Bayern München
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
49.9%
Under 9.5
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
55.5%
Under 3.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
29.1%
Under 21.5
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.592.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.577.1%1.29-----+4.6%✓ Hit
BTTS Yes75.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls70.9%-------✗ Miss

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RL (35)
€619m
BD (33)
€500m
VS (34)
€448m
EF (30)
€357m
VW (33)
€201m
HS (33)
€177m
WB (32)
€168m
BM (33)
€162m
FM0 (31)
€154m
UB (29)
€130m
SP0 (31)
€53m
Eintracht Frankfurt's squad is €91m less valuable than VfB Stuttgart's (€357m vs €448m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RL (15)
€346m
VS (11)
€210m
EF (14)
€183m
BD (9)
€170m
VW (9)
€78m
BM (13)
€64m
HS (15)
€58m
FM0 (10)
€50m
WB (9)
€47m
UB (9)
€37m
SP0 (11)
€10m
Eintracht Frankfurt's attack is €27m less valuable than VfB Stuttgart's (€183m vs €210m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BD (7)
€122m
RL (7)
€104m
VS (6)
€88m
FM0 (6)
€62m
BM (8)
€51m
EF (4)
€50m
WB (5)
€30m
UB (6)
€25m
VW (6)
€25m
HS (2)
€21m
SP0 (9)
€21m
Eintracht Frankfurt's midfield is €38m less valuable than VfB Stuttgart's (€50m vs €88m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BD (17)
€208m
RL (13)
€168m
VS (17)
€150m
EF (12)
€124m
VW (18)
€98m
HS (16)
€98m
WB (18)
€91m
UB (14)
€68m
BM (12)
€47m
FM0 (15)
€42m
SP0 (11)
€22m
Eintracht Frankfurt's defence is €26m less valuable than VfB Stuttgart's (€124m vs €150m).

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart · H/A from EF
DateH/AGameScore
13/01/26AVfB Stuttgart Vs EF3-2
29/03/25HEF Vs VfB Stuttgart1-0
10/11/24AVfB Stuttgart Vs EF2-3
13/04/24AVfB Stuttgart Vs EF3-0
25/11/23HEF Vs VfB Stuttgart1-2
11/03/23HEF Vs VfB Stuttgart1-1
17/09/22AVfB Stuttgart Vs EF1-3
05/02/22AVfB Stuttgart Vs EF2-3

Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/05/26ABorussia Dortmund Vs EF3-2
02/05/26HEF Vs Hamburger SV1-2
25/04/26AFC Augsburg Vs EF1-1
18/04/26HEF Vs RB Leipzig1-3
11/04/26AVfL Wolfsburg Vs EF1-2
05/04/26HEF Vs 1. FC Köln2-2
22/03/26AFSV Mainz 05 Vs EF2-1
14/03/26HEF Vs 1. FC Heidenheim1-0
08/03/26AFC St. Pauli Vs EF0-0
01/03/26HEF Vs SC Freiburg2-0

VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26HVS Vs Bayer Leverkusen3-1
02/05/26A1899 Hoffenheim Vs VS3-3
26/04/26HVS Vs Werder Bremen1-1
19/04/26ABayern München Vs VS4-2
12/04/26HVS Vs Hamburger SV4-0
04/04/26HVS Vs Borussia Dortmund0-2
22/03/26AFC Augsburg Vs VS2-5
19/03/26AFC Porto Vs VS2-0
15/03/26HVS Vs RB Leipzig1-0
12/03/26HVS Vs FC Porto1-2

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Eintracht Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt
Germany: Bundesliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLL1.20
HomeWWDLL1.42
AwayDLWDL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%42%19%
AVG goals3.503.383.62
Over 1.5 %86%83%88%
Over 2.5 %64%67%62%
Over 3.5 %48%46%50%
Scored1.661.751.58
Conceded1.841.622.04
BTTS66%50%81%
Clean Sheet22%33%12%
Corners9.189.179.19
Cards3.893.913.88
VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart
Germany: Bundesliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDDW1.78
HomeWLWDW2.16
AwayDLWLD1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%68%40%
AVG goals3.402.804.00
Over 1.5 %82%72%92%
Over 2.5 %66%52%80%
Over 3.5 %48%40%56%
Scored2.021.842.20
Conceded1.380.961.80
BTTS54%44%64%
Clean Sheet30%40%20%
Corners9.9210.209.64
Cards4.023.804.25

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Bayern MünchenBayern München3489
82%
2.6
12236+86
4.6
97%
94%
76%
9.9
53%
3.7
45%
17.8
32%
0
0003.61.1
67%
2Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund3473
65%
2.1
7034+36
3.1
85%
56%
32%
9.5
44%
3.8
58%
21.9
59%
500
1701222082.11.0
53%
3RB LeipzigRB Leipzig3465
59%
1.9
6647+19
3.3
85%
71%
47%
9.6
53%
3.3
44%
19.6
29%
619
3461041681.91.4
54%
4VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart3462
53%
1.8
7149+22
3.5
85%
74%
53%
9.9
56%
3.7
45%
21.9
53%
448
210881502.11.4
58%
51899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim3461
53%
1.8
6552+13
3.4
85%
71%
50%
10.6
65%
4.1
64%
22.9
68%
0
0001.91.5
55%
6Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen3459
50%
1.7
6847+21
3.4
85%
59%
41%
9.7
59%
4.9
59%
19.8
38%
0
0002.01.4
59%
7SC FreiburgSC Freiburg3447
38%
1.4
5157-6
3.2
82%
65%
38%
8.3
35%
3.8
50%
21.5
41%
0
0001.51.7
48%
8Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt3444
32%
1.3
6165-4
3.7
88%
68%
53%
9.2
50%
4.3
56%
20.1
38%
357
183501241.81.9
55%
9FC AugsburgFC Augsburg3443
35%
1.3
4561-16
3.1
85%
62%
41%
10.2
56%
4.5
70%
22.6
65%
0
0001.31.8
44%
10FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 053440
29%
1.2
4453-9
2.9
82%
53%
32%
9.6
50%
4.2
62%
21.0
44%
154
5062421.31.6
44%
11Union BerlinUnion Berlin3439
29%
1.1
4458-14
3.0
76%
62%
47%
9.8
53%
4.3
58%
22.3
47%
130
3725681.31.7
40%
12Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach3438
26%
1.1
4253-11
2.8
71%
53%
38%
8.6
38%
4.2
50%
21.8
50%
162
6451471.21.6
47%
13Hamburger SVHamburger SV3438
26%
1.1
4054-14
2.8
79%
56%
32%
9.5
47%
5.2
73%
24.5
74%
177
5821981.21.6
45%
141. FC Köln1. FC Köln3432
21%
0.9
4963-14
3.3
85%
65%
47%
10.1
50%
4.6
66%
18.7
35%
0
0001.41.9
47%
15Werder BremenWerder Bremen3432
24%
0.9
3760-23
2.9
79%
53%
35%
9.5
56%
4.2
61%
19.5
32%
168
4730911.11.8
51%
16VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg3630
19%
0.8
4671-25
3.2
78%
64%
42%
11.9
72%
3.9
50%
20.6
44%
201
7825981.32.0
45%
171. FC Heidenheim1. FC Heidenheim3426
18%
0.8
4172-31
3.3
91%
68%
41%
9.6
41%
3.7
50%
20.1
38%
0
0001.22.1
42%
18FC St. PauliFC St. Pauli3426
18%
0.8
2960-31
2.6
82%
56%
21%
9.9
56%
3.4
44%
19.0
24%
0
0000.91.8
44%
19SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 0724
50%
2.0
21+1
1.5
50%
50%
0%
13.0
50%
8.0
100%
24.5
50%
53
1021221.00.5
52%
Germany: Bundesliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →

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