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Ekibastuz vs Taraz Result & Analysis

Date: 10/08/2023
Time: 12:00
Final 5-3
Ekibastuz
Ekibastuz
Vs
50%
24%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Taraz
Taraz
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Ekibastuz’s recent form - three wins after two defeats - sets the tone for a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.4 goals. The model predicts a home win and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 10.2% chance, even though the average total is three goals. Ekibastuz averages 1.92 goals scored and 2.08 conceded at home against similarly ranked opposition, while Taraz, playing away, averages 1.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded. The model favours a home victory, with a 50% probability, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 27% chance of an away win. The only suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 86.5% probability. This single selection reflects the expectation of plenty of action, while the overall match outcome remains firmly in Ekibastuz’s favour.

Results analysis

Ekibastuz’s recent run of two losses followed by three wins set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, while Taraz had just secured a victory. The model’s pick of a home win, at 50% probability, proved correct as Ekibastuz triumphed 5-3. The predicted most likely total of three goals was eclipsed, yet the model’s single selection, Over 1.5 with an 86.5% chance, hit. The final score confirmed a home win, matching the model’s forecast. Each probability was cited once: 50% for the home win, 86.5% for Over 1.5, and the model’s call was right. The match delivered on the favoured result and the lone selection.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ekibastuz win✓ Hit
49.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Taraz win✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-730W07L23L12L12L11D30W14L23L11DH·AKT19/05A·YEL26/05H·KHA09/06A·ZHE23/06H·KYR30/06A·AKA06/07H·ARY13/07A·AKZ20/07H·AST27/07A·JAS04/08
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.802.272.001.801.602.73
vs Stronger (1)0.007.00--0.007.00
vs Similar (25)1.802.281.922.081.672.50
vs Weaker (4)2.251.002.500.002.002.00
Clean sheet %13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TarazTaraz

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L33D31W42W04L11D24L43W02L13LA·KYR19/05H·AKA26/05A·ARY02/06H·SPO10/06A·AKZ23/06H·AST30/06A·JAS06/07H·YAS21/07A·AKT28/07H·YEL04/08
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.771.711.940.921.54
vs Stronger (7)0.711.570.751.750.671.33
vs Similar (21)1.381.861.582.081.111.56
vs Weaker (2)3.501.507.001.000.002.00
Clean sheet %13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.5%
Under 1.5
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.4%
Under 2.5
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.6%
Under 3.5
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.6%
No
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%
2-1
9.3%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
6.6%
2-0
6.5%
3-1
6.2%
1-0
5.6%
3-2
4.4%
Ekibastuz goals ↓
Taraz goals →
01234
04.2%3.7%3.3%1.6%0.6%
15.6%10%6.6%3.2%1.1%
26.5%9.3%6.6%3.1%1.1%
34.3%6.2%4.4%2.1%0.7%
42.1%3.1%2.2%1.0%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ekibastuz goals (down), columns = Taraz goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Yelimay Semey
2.71
Turan Turkistan
2.46
Zhenys
2.07
Akzhayik
1.93
Kyran
1.79
Sport Academy Kairat
1.25
Khan Tengri
1.25
Arys
1.18
Ekibastuz
1.14
Jas Qyran
1.14
Yassy Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.11
Aktobe Jas
0.82
Akademiya Ontustik
0.75
Astana II
0.68
Ekibastuz is 0.04 points better than Taraz in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.11).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Turan Turkistan
3.07
Yelimay Semey
2.71
Zhenys
2.21
Akzhayik
2.21
Sport Academy Kairat
2.07
Kyran
1.96
Jas Qyran
1.79
Ekibastuz
1.68
Yassy Turkistan
1.68
Taraz
1.68
Akademiya Ontustik
1.64
Arys
1.46
Khan Tengri
1.39
Aktobe Jas
1.32
Astana II
1.14
Ekibastuz and Taraz are level in goals scored per game (both 1.68).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Yelimay Semey
0.61
Turan Turkistan
1.00
Akzhayik
1.04
Zhenys
1.21
Khan Tengri
1.36
Jas Qyran
1.86
Sport Academy Kairat
1.89
Taraz
2.04
Kyran
2.04
Yassy Turkistan
2.07
Ekibastuz
2.21
Arys
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.68
Aktobe Jas
2.75
Astana II
3.04
Ekibastuz is 0.18 goals worse than Taraz in terms of goals conceded per game (2.21 vs 2.04).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W04L21W01L01L01L20W01L21W00DH·AKT19/05A·YEL26/05H·KHA09/06A·ZHE23/06H·KYR30/06A·AKA06/07H·ARY13/07A·AKZ20/07H·AST27/07A·JAS04/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.031.120.750.501.36
vs Stronger (1)0.004.00--0.004.00
vs Similar (25)0.921.041.140.860.641.27
vs Weaker (4)0.500.251.000.000.000.50
Clean sheet %33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TarazTaraz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D12L10W30W01L01L10W11D02L02LA·KYR19/05H·AKA26/05A·ARY02/06H·SPO10/06A·AKZ23/06H·AST30/06A·JAS06/07H·YAS21/07A·AKT28/07H·YEL04/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.830.690.940.500.71
vs Stronger (8)0.621.250.501.250.751.25
vs Similar (20)0.550.650.640.910.440.33
vs Weaker (2)1.001.002.000.000.002.00
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W03L02L11D11D10W10W13L02L11DH·AKT19/05A·YEL26/05H·KHA09/06A·ZHE23/06H·KYR30/06A·AKA06/07H·ARY13/07A·AKZ20/07H·AST27/07A·JAS04/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.230.751.001.071.50
vs Stronger (1)0.003.00--0.003.00
vs Similar (25)0.801.240.641.141.001.36
vs Weaker (4)1.750.751.500.002.001.50
Clean sheet %23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TarazTaraz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L21W21W12L03L10W14L32W00D11DA·KYR19/05H·AKA26/05A·ARY02/06H·SPO10/06A·AKZ23/06H·AST30/06A·JAS06/07H·YAS21/07A·AKT28/07H·YEL04/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.001.121.060.500.93
vs Stronger (8)0.250.500.250.500.250.50
vs Similar (20)0.901.251.091.270.671.22
vs Weaker (2)2.500.505.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YS (23)
€8m
ZHE (18)
€4m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YS (11)
€4m
ZHE (6)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YS (10)
€3m
ZHE (9)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
EKI wins
0
Draws
0
TAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ekibastuz vs Taraz · H/A from EKI
DateH/AGameScore
05/05/23ATaraz Vs EKI1-2

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/08/23AJas Qyran Vs EKI1-1
27/07/23HEKI Vs Astana II2-3
20/07/23AAkzhayik Vs EKI4-1
13/07/23HEKI Vs Arys3-0
06/07/23AAkademiya Ontustik Vs EKI1-1
30/06/23HEKI Vs Kyran1-2
23/06/23AZhenys Vs EKI2-1
09/06/23HEKI Vs Khan Tengri2-3
26/05/23AYelimay Semey Vs EKI7-0
19/05/23HEKI Vs Aktobe Jas3-0

TarazTaraz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/08/23HTAR Vs Yelimay Semey1-3
28/07/23AAktobe Jas Vs TAR2-0
21/07/23HTAR Vs Yassy Turkistan4-3
06/07/23AJas Qyran Vs TAR4-2
30/06/23HTAR Vs Astana II1-1
23/06/23AAkzhayik Vs TAR4-0
10/06/23HTAR Vs Sport Academy Kairat4-2
02/06/23AArys Vs TAR1-3
26/05/23HTAR Vs Akademiya Ontustik3-3
19/05/23AKyran Vs TAR2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ekibastuz
Ekibastuz
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLD1.23
HomeWLLWL1.24
AwayLLDLD1.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%29%32%
AVG goals3.703.384.00
Over 1.5 %91%86%95%
Over 2.5 %74%71%77%
Over 3.5 %49%48%50%
Scored1.701.811.59
Conceded2.001.572.41
BTTS65%57%73%
Clean Sheet16%29%5%
Corners---
Cards---
Taraz
Taraz
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLL1.05
HomeDWDWL1.23
AwayLWLLL0.86
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%32%19%
AVG goals2.863.272.43
Over 1.5 %72%77%67%
Over 2.5 %47%50%43%
Over 3.5 %33%36%29%
Scored1.351.681.00
Conceded1.511.591.43
BTTS51%59%43%
Clean Sheet21%18%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Yelimay SemeyYelimay Semey2876
86%
2.7
7617+59
3.3
86%
68%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4032.70.6
-
2Turan TurkistanTuran Turkistan2869
79%
2.5
8628+58
4.1
79%
68%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.11.0
-
3ZhenysZhenys2858
64%
2.1
6234+28
3.4
93%
71%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2022.21.2
-
4AkzhayikAkzhayik2854
61%
1.9
6229+33
3.2
82%
64%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5KyranKyran2850
57%
1.8
5557-2
4.0
89%
71%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.0
-
6Sport Academy KairatSport Academy Kairat2835
36%
1.2
5853+5
4.0
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.9
-
7Khan TengriKhan Tengri2835
36%
1.2
3938+1
2.8
75%
57%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
8ArysArys2833
36%
1.2
4163-22
3.7
86%
64%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.2
-
9Jas QyranJas Qyran2832
32%
1.1
5052-2
3.6
86%
61%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.9
-
10Yassy TurkistanYassy Turkistan2832
32%
1.1
4758-11
3.8
71%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.1
-
11EkibastuzEkibastuz2832
29%
1.1
4762-15
3.9
96%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.2
-
12TarazTaraz2831
32%
1.1
4757-10
3.7
89%
64%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
13Aktobe JasAktobe Jas2823
25%
0.8
3777-40
4.1
89%
79%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.8
-
14Akademiya OntustikAkademiya Ontustik2821
18%
0.8
4675-29
4.3
93%
86%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.7
-
15Astana IIAstana II2819
21%
0.7
3285-53
4.2
100%
89%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.13.0
-
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →

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