Ekibastuz is tipped to lift the trophy, with a 46% chance of victory, a 26% draw probability and a 27% chance for Taraz, making the home win the clear favourite. The match is expected to see 2.9 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.3% chance. Ekibastuz, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 2.42 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Taraz, on the road, averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.46 conceded. The model’s selection includes an 80.1% chance of Over 1.5 goals, a hit in the past. Ekibastuz’s recent form shows five matches of LLWWW, recovering after two straight defeats, while Taraz’s last five are WDDLW, coming off a win. These figures paint a picture of a competitive contest where Ekibastuz’s offensive edge and home advantage give them the edge, yet the game could still finish 1-1.
Results analysis
Ekibastuz’s recent form, after two straight defeats, has finally turned into a winning streak, and the Pythia model’s favourite - a home win - materialised as the match finished 4-1. The model’s pre-match pick was “Home win” with a 46% probability, and it was correct. The single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, had an 80.1% probability and hit, as the final tally of five goals exceeded the threshold. The prediction of a 2-goal total was the most likely scoreline, yet the game produced a high-scoring 4-1 outcome. Overall, the model’s selections largely came in, confirming its accuracy for this fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ekibastuz win✓ Hit
46.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Taraz win✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ekibastuz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.70
2.50
1.50
1.19
1.88
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (26)
1.69
1.62
2.42
1.50
1.07
1.71
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
1.67
3.00
1.50
4.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Taraz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.13
1.31
0.81
1.14
1.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.27
1.19
1.46
0.92
1.08
1.46
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.1%
Under 1.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.1%
Under 2.5
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.7%
Under 3.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.2%
No
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
7.8%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.0%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
5.9%
0-1
5.6%
Ekibastuz goals ↓
Taraz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
5.6%
4.2%
1.7%
0.5%
1
7.8%
12%
7.0%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.5%
9.4%
5.9%
2.5%
0.8%
3
4.2%
5.3%
3.3%
1.4%
0.4%
4
1.8%
2.2%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ekibastuz goals (down), columns = Taraz goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kaspiy
2.62
Irtysh
2.35
Altay (Kazakhstan)
2.08
Shakhter Karagandy
2.00
Zhetisay
1.62
Sport Academy Kairat
1.54
Akademiya Ontustik
1.50
Taraz
1.35
AKAS
1.27
Ekibastuz
1.08
SD Family
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.69
Aktobe Jas
0.52
Yassy Turkistan
0.39
Ekibastuz is 0.27 points worse than Taraz in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.35).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kaspiy
2.85
Irtysh
2.73
Shakhter Karagandy
2.32
Sport Academy Kairat
2.23
Altay (Kazakhstan)
2.04
Zhetisay
1.69
Akademiya Ontustik
1.69
Taraz
1.65
AKAS
1.62
Ekibastuz
1.38
SD Family
1.27
Aktobe Jas
1.24
Khan Tengri
1.04
Yassy Turkistan
0.70
Ekibastuz is 0.27 goals worse than Taraz in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.65).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Irtysh
0.77
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.92
Kaspiy
1.04
Zhetisay
1.35
Shakhter Karagandy
1.36
Taraz
1.46
AKAS
1.50
Sport Academy Kairat
1.62
Akademiya Ontustik
1.69
Khan Tengri
2.12
Ekibastuz
2.31
Aktobe Jas
2.60
SD Family
2.88
Yassy Turkistan
3.09
Ekibastuz is 0.85 goals worse than Taraz in terms of goals conceded per game (2.31 vs 1.46).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ekibastuz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
1.00
0.50
0.44
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.50
0.83
0.50
0.36
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
2.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Taraz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.47
0.62
0.31
0.57
0.64
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.50
0.77
0.38
0.54
0.62
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ekibastuz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.27
1.21
1.21
0.75
1.31
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
0.96
1.23
1.25
1.25
0.71
1.21
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Taraz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.69
0.50
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.69
0.69
0.54
0.54
0.85
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →