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Ekibastuz vs Taraz Result & Analysis

Date: 12/06/2025
Time: 12:00
Final 4-1
Ekibastuz
Ekibastuz
Vs
46%
26%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Taraz
Taraz
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Ekibastuz is tipped to lift the trophy, with a 46% chance of victory, a 26% draw probability and a 27% chance for Taraz, making the home win the clear favourite. The match is expected to see 2.9 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.3% chance. Ekibastuz, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 2.42 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Taraz, on the road, averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.46 conceded. The model’s selection includes an 80.1% chance of Over 1.5 goals, a hit in the past. Ekibastuz’s recent form shows five matches of LLWWW, recovering after two straight defeats, while Taraz’s last five are WDDLW, coming off a win. These figures paint a picture of a competitive contest where Ekibastuz’s offensive edge and home advantage give them the edge, yet the game could still finish 1-1.

Results analysis

Ekibastuz’s recent form, after two straight defeats, has finally turned into a winning streak, and the Pythia model’s favourite - a home win - materialised as the match finished 4-1. The model’s pre-match pick was “Home win” with a 46% probability, and it was correct. The single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, had an 80.1% probability and hit, as the final tally of five goals exceeded the threshold. The prediction of a 2-goal total was the most likely scoreline, yet the game produced a high-scoring 4-1 outcome. Overall, the model’s selections largely came in, confirming its accuracy for this fixture.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ekibastuz win✓ Hit
46.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Taraz win✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-710W11D04L00D33D07L22D02L01L10WA·ALT18/03A·KHA22/03A·IRT09/04A·ALT18/04H·AKT24/04A·SPO01/05H·SHA09/05A·AKA15/05H·ZHE23/05A·AKA28/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.801.702.501.501.191.88
vs Stronger (1)0.004.00--0.004.00
vs Similar (26)1.691.622.421.501.071.71
vs Weaker (3)3.331.673.001.504.002.00
Clean sheet %27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TarazTaraz

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D00D12L20W30W12L01L11D11D01LA·AKT25/10H·TAL15/03H·ZHE10/04A·AKA18/04H·ALT25/04H·KAS02/05A·YAS08/05H·SD 16/05A·KHA23/05H·IRT29/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.131.310.811.141.50
vs Stronger (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Similar (26)1.271.191.460.921.081.46
vs Weaker (3)1.330.671.000.002.002.00
Clean sheet %23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.1%
Under 1.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.1%
Under 2.5
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.7%
Under 3.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.2%
No
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
7.8%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.0%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
5.9%
0-1
5.6%
Ekibastuz goals ↓
Taraz goals →
01234
06.5%5.6%4.2%1.7%0.5%
17.8%12%7.0%2.9%0.9%
27.5%9.4%5.9%2.5%0.8%
34.2%5.3%3.3%1.4%0.4%
41.8%2.2%1.4%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ekibastuz goals (down), columns = Taraz goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kaspiy
2.62
Irtysh
2.35
Altay (Kazakhstan)
2.08
Shakhter Karagandy
2.00
Zhetisay
1.62
Sport Academy Kairat
1.54
Akademiya Ontustik
1.50
Taraz
1.35
AKAS
1.27
Ekibastuz
1.08
SD Family
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.69
Aktobe Jas
0.52
Yassy Turkistan
0.39
Ekibastuz is 0.27 points worse than Taraz in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.35).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Kaspiy
2.85
Irtysh
2.73
Shakhter Karagandy
2.32
Sport Academy Kairat
2.23
Altay (Kazakhstan)
2.04
Zhetisay
1.69
Akademiya Ontustik
1.69
Taraz
1.65
AKAS
1.62
Ekibastuz
1.38
SD Family
1.27
Aktobe Jas
1.24
Khan Tengri
1.04
Yassy Turkistan
0.70
Ekibastuz is 0.27 goals worse than Taraz in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.65).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Irtysh
0.77
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.92
Kaspiy
1.04
Zhetisay
1.35
Shakhter Karagandy
1.36
Taraz
1.46
AKAS
1.50
Sport Academy Kairat
1.62
Akademiya Ontustik
1.69
Khan Tengri
2.12
Ekibastuz
2.31
Aktobe Jas
2.60
SD Family
2.88
Yassy Turkistan
3.09
Ekibastuz is 0.85 goals worse than Taraz in terms of goals conceded per game (2.31 vs 1.46).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D01L00D31W03L11D00D00D10WA·ALT18/03A·KHA22/03A·IRT09/04A·ALT18/04H·AKT24/04A·SPO01/05H·SHA09/05A·AKA15/05H·ZHE23/05A·AKA28/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.531.000.500.440.56
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (26)0.580.500.830.500.360.50
vs Weaker (3)2.000.672.000.502.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TarazTaraz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D10W00D20W11D01L11D11D00DA·AKT25/10H·TAL15/03H·ZHE10/04A·AKA18/04H·ALT25/04H·KAS02/05A·YAS08/05H·SD 16/05A·KHA23/05H·IRT29/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.470.620.310.570.64
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (26)0.650.500.770.380.540.62
vs Weaker (3)0.330.330.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D03L00D02L04L11D02L01L00DA·ALT18/03A·KHA22/03A·IRT09/04A·ALT18/04H·AKT24/04A·SPO01/05H·SHA09/05A·AKA15/05H·ZHE23/05A·AKA28/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.271.211.210.751.31
vs Stronger (1)0.003.00--0.003.00
vs Similar (26)0.961.231.251.250.711.21
vs Weaker (3)1.331.001.001.002.001.00
Clean sheet %23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TarazTaraz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D02L20W10W01L00D00D00D01LA·AKT25/10H·TAL15/03H·ZHE10/04A·AKA18/04H·ALT25/04H·KAS02/05A·YAS08/05H·SD 16/05A·KHA23/05H·IRT29/05
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.670.690.500.570.86
vs Stronger (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Similar (26)0.620.690.690.540.540.85
vs Weaker (3)1.000.331.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAS (8)
€2m
IRT (7)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IRT (13)
€2m
KAS (11)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
2
EKI wins
1
Draws
2
TAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ekibastuz vs Taraz · H/A from EKI
DateH/AGameScore
20/09/24HEKI Vs Taraz1-1
22/05/24ATaraz Vs EKI2-1
12/03/24ATaraz Vs EKI2-1
10/08/23HEKI Vs Taraz5-3
05/05/23ATaraz Vs EKI1-2

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/05/25AAkademiya Ontustik Vs EKI0-1
23/05/25HEKI Vs Zhetisay0-1
15/05/25AAKAS Vs EKI2-0
09/05/25HEKI Vs Shakhter Karagandy2-2
01/05/25ASport Academy Kairat Vs EKI7-0
24/04/25HEKI Vs Aktobe Jas3-3
18/04/25AAltay (Kazakhstan) Vs EKI0-0
09/04/25AIrtysh Vs EKI4-0
22/03/25AKhan Tengri Vs EKI1-1
18/03/25AAltay (Kazakhstan) Vs EKI0-1

TarazTaraz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/05/25HTAR Vs Irtysh0-1
23/05/25AKhan Tengri Vs TAR1-1
16/05/25HTAR Vs SD Family1-1
08/05/25AYassy Turkistan Vs TAR1-0
02/05/25HTAR Vs Kaspiy1-2
25/04/25HTAR Vs Altay (Kazakhstan)3-0
18/04/25AAkademiya Ontustik Vs TAR0-2
10/04/25HTAR Vs Zhetisay1-2
15/03/25HTAR Vs Talas Karatau0-0
25/10/24AAktobe Jas Vs TAR2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ekibastuz
Ekibastuz
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLW1.56
HomeWWDDL1.92
AwayLDLLW1.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%54%35%
AVG goals3.103.462.77
Over 1.5 %84%92%77%
Over 2.5 %70%75%65%
Over 3.5 %30%42%19%
Scored1.602.041.19
Conceded1.501.421.58
BTTS58%62%54%
Clean Sheet28%25%31%
Corners---
Cards---
Taraz
Taraz
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDDL1.40
HomeLWLDL1.48
AwayLDWLD1.30
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%44%35%
AVG goals2.462.442.48
Over 1.5 %76%74%78%
Over 2.5 %52%56%48%
Over 3.5 %16%15%17%
Scored1.261.411.09
Conceded1.201.041.39
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet24%30%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KaspiyKaspiy2668
85%
2.6
7427+47
3.9
88%
81%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1212.81.0
-
2IrtyshIrtysh2661
73%
2.3
7120+51
3.5
77%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1122.70.8
-
3Altay (Kazakhstan)Altay (Kazakhstan)2552
64%
2.1
5123+28
3.0
84%
64%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.00.9
-
4Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy2550
60%
2.0
5834+24
3.7
96%
80%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.4
-
5ZhetisayZhetisay2642
50%
1.6
4435+9
3.0
77%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.3
-
6Sport Academy KairatSport Academy Kairat2640
46%
1.5
5842+16
3.8
85%
77%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.6
-
7Akademiya OntustikAkademiya Ontustik2639
46%
1.5
4444+0
3.4
88%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.7
-
8TarazTaraz2635
38%
1.3
4338+5
3.1
88%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.5
-
9AKASAKAS2633
38%
1.3
4239+3
3.1
88%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.5
-
10EkibastuzEkibastuz2628
31%
1.1
3660-24
3.7
81%
69%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.3
-
11SD FamilySD Family2623
27%
0.9
3375-42
4.2
85%
69%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.9
-
12Khan TengriKhan Tengri2618
19%
0.7
2755-28
3.2
85%
54%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.1
-
13Aktobe JasAktobe Jas2513
8%
0.5
3165-34
3.8
92%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.6
-
14Yassy TurkistanYassy Turkistan239
9%
0.4
1671-55
3.8
83%
65%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.1
-
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →

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