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Ekibastuz vs Taraz Prediction & Stats

Date: 22/10/2026
Time: 10:00
Ekibastuz
Ekibastuz
Vs
52%
24%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Taraz
Taraz
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Ekibastuz’s recent run of three straight defeats is tempered by a solid home form that averages 1.73 goals scored and 2.13 conceded against similarly ranked opposition, while Taraz, after a 0-4 loss away, averages only 0.77 goals scored and 1.92 conceded in similar away fixtures. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected total of 3.3 goals, centring on a 3-goal outcome that carries a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with an 10.8% chance. The favourite result is a home win, with a 52% chance of Ekibastuz triumph, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 25% chance of Taraz victory. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.6%), Under 6.5 (95.1%), Home +2 handicap (89.2%), Under 5.5 (88.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (86.5%), Home over 0.5 goals (85.9%), and Away under 2.5 goals (85.5%). The model’s selections reflect the offensive potential of Ekibastuz and the defensive frailties of Taraz.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ekibastuz win
51.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Taraz win
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L12L04L03L21W20W31W23L24L13LA·KHA16/10H·IRT24/10H·KAS09/04A·KAS23/07H·YEL30/07A·AKT06/08H·JAI14/08A·AKA20/08H·TUR27/08A·ARY03/09
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.502.171.692.121.292.21
vs Stronger (1)1.002.001.002.00--
vs Similar (27)1.372.261.732.130.922.42
vs Weaker (2)3.501.00--3.501.00
Clean sheet %13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TarazTaraz

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D00D11D10W21W02L00D11D31W04LA·ZHE24/10H·ULY09/04H·AKT16/07A·YEL24/07H·AKA30/07A·JAI07/08H·TUR14/08A·ARY20/08H·TOB28/08A·AST03/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.432.000.800.932.07
vs Stronger (2)0.003.500.001.000.006.00
vs Similar (24)1.381.292.090.550.771.92
vs Weaker (4)2.751.252.331.674.000.00
Clean sheet %27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.7%
Under 1.5
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.4%
Under 2.5
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.2%
Under 3.5
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.7%
No
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.3%
1-0
6.5%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
6.3%
3-1
6.2%
0-0
4.8%
Ekibastuz goals ↓
Taraz goals →
01234
04.8%4.0%3.3%1.4%0.5%
16.5%11%6.4%2.8%0.9%
27.3%9.6%6.3%2.7%0.9%
34.8%6.2%4.1%1.8%0.6%
42.3%3.1%2.0%0.9%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ekibastuz goals (down), columns = Taraz goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Ekibastuz is 0.21 points worse than Taraz in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Ekibastuz is 0.71 goals better than Taraz in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Ekibastuz is 0.89 goals worse than Taraz in terms of goals conceded per game (2.14 vs 1.25).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ekibastuz or Draw
75.4%
Avg Implied -
52%
24%
25%
covers Ekibastuz + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz or Taraz
76.1%
Avg Implied -
52%
24%
25%
covers Ekibastuz + Taraz
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Taraz
48.5%
Avg Implied -
52%
24%
25%
covers Draw + Taraz
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5
Over
85.9%
Under
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5
Over
58.2%
Under
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5
Over
31.2%
Under
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 3.5
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 0.5
Over
73.0%
Under
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5
Over
37.7%
Under
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5
Over
14.5%
Under
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 3.5
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Ekibastuz, so a minus line means Ekibastuz give that many goals of a start and Taraz receive them. At -1, Ekibastuz must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ekibastuz win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ekibastuz)
Ekibastuz -2
14.5%
Draw -2
15.9%
Taraz +2
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ekibastuz)
Ekibastuz -1
30.4%
Draw -1
21.1%
Taraz +1
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ekibastuz)
Ekibastuz +1
75.4%
Draw +1
13.8%
Taraz -1
10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ekibastuz)
Ekibastuz +2
89.2%
Draw +2
7.1%
Taraz -2
3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D01L02L10W20W11D02L01L00DA·KHA16/10H·IRT24/10H·KAS09/04A·KAS23/07H·YEL30/07A·AKT06/08H·JAI14/08A·AKA20/08H·TUR27/08A·ARY03/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.800.810.620.431.00
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (27)0.560.850.870.670.171.08
vs Weaker (2)2.000.50--2.000.50
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TarazTaraz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L10W10W01L00D01L20W02LA·ZHE24/10H·ULY09/04H·AKT16/07A·YEL24/07H·AKA30/07A·JAI07/08H·TUR14/08A·ARY20/08H·TOB28/08A·AST03/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.730.870.400.401.07
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.000.000.004.00
vs Similar (24)0.620.670.910.360.380.92
vs Weaker (4)1.000.501.000.671.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L12L03L01L11D00D20W21W23L13LA·KHA16/10H·IRT24/10H·KAS09/04A·KAS23/07H·YEL30/07A·AKT06/08H·JAI14/08A·AKA20/08H·TUR27/08A·ARY03/09
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.370.881.500.861.21
vs Stronger (1)1.002.001.002.00--
vs Similar (27)0.811.410.871.470.751.33
vs Weaker (2)1.500.50--1.500.50
Clean sheet %23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TarazTaraz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D10W00D11D01L00D10W11D02LA·ZHE24/10H·ULY09/04H·AKT16/07A·YEL24/07H·AKA30/07A·JAI07/08H·TUR14/08A·ARY20/08H·TOB28/08A·AST03/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.701.130.400.531.00
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (24)0.750.621.180.180.381.00
vs Weaker (4)1.750.751.331.003.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.1%-------
Away under 3.5 goals95.6%-------
Under 6.595.1%-------
Home +2 handicap89.2%-------
Under 5.588.7%-------
Home under 3.5 goals86.5%-------
Home over 0.5 goals85.9%-------
Away under 2.5 goals85.5%-------
Over 1.584.7%-------
Under 4.576.9%-------
Home or Away76.1%-------
Home or Draw75.4%-------
Home +1 handicap75.4%-------
Away over 0.5 goals73.0%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
3
EKI wins
1
Draws
3
TAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ekibastuz vs Taraz · H/A from EKI
DateH/AGameScore
12/09/25ATaraz Vs EKI1-0
12/06/25HEKI Vs Taraz4-1
20/09/24HEKI Vs Taraz1-1
22/05/24ATaraz Vs EKI2-1
12/03/24ATaraz Vs EKI2-1
10/08/23HEKI Vs Taraz5-3
05/05/23ATaraz Vs EKI1-2

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26AArys Vs EKI3-1
27/08/26HEKI Vs Turan Turkistan2-4
20/08/26AAkademiya Ontustik Vs EKI3-2
14/08/26HEKI Vs Jaiyq3-1
06/08/26AAktobe Jas Vs EKI0-2
30/07/26HEKI Vs Yelimay Semey 22-1
23/07/26AKaspij Aktau 2 Vs EKI3-0
09/04/26HEKI Vs Kaspiy0-4
24/10/25HEKI Vs Irtysh1-2
16/10/25AKhan Tengri Vs EKI4-0

TarazTaraz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26AAstana II Vs TAR4-0
28/08/26HTAR Vs Tobol 23-1
20/08/26AArys Vs TAR1-1
14/08/26HTAR Vs Turan Turkistan0-0
07/08/26AJaiyq Vs TAR2-0
30/07/26HTAR Vs Akademiya Ontustik2-1
24/07/26AYelimay Semey 2 Vs TAR0-1
16/07/26HTAR Vs Aktobe Jas1-1
09/04/26HTAR Vs Ulytau0-0
24/10/25AZhetisay Vs TAR1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ekibastuz
Ekibastuz
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLL1.38
HomeLLWWL1.60
AwayLLWLL1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%48%36%
AVG goals3.724.003.44
Over 1.5 %88%96%80%
Over 2.5 %76%84%68%
Over 3.5 %52%60%44%
Scored1.682.041.32
Conceded2.041.962.12
BTTS62%76%48%
Clean Sheet20%16%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Taraz
Taraz
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDWL1.32
HomeDDWDW1.72
AwayDWLDL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%48%24%
AVG goals2.742.642.84
Over 1.5 %78%68%88%
Over 2.5 %52%56%48%
Over 3.5 %30%28%32%
Scored1.401.801.00
Conceded1.340.841.84
BTTS52%52%52%
Clean Sheet26%36%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy721
100%
3.0
242+22
3.7
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.40.3
-
2Akademiya OntustikAkademiya Ontustik819
75%
2.4
1610+6
3.2
88%
88%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.2
-
3Sport Academy KairatSport Academy Kairat817
62%
2.1
183+15
2.6
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.20.4
-
4Turan TurkistanTuran Turkistan716
71%
2.3
168+8
3.4
71%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.1
-
5TarazTaraz812
38%
1.5
810-2
2.2
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
6Kaspij Aktau 2Kaspij Aktau 2710
43%
1.4
1211+1
3.3
71%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
7EkibastuzEkibastuz79
43%
1.3
1215-3
3.9
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.1
-
8Astana IIAstana II89
38%
1.1
918-9
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.2
-
9JaiyqJaiyq78
29%
1.1
77+0
2.0
57%
29%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
10ArysArys88
25%
1.0
813-5
2.6
75%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
11Khan TengriKhan Tengri87
25%
0.9
814-6
2.8
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
12Aktobe JasAktobe Jas87
25%
0.9
1023-13
4.1
88%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.9
-
13Yelimay Semey 2Yelimay Semey 276
29%
0.9
613-7
2.7
57%
57%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
14Tobol 2Tobol 283
12%
0.4
1118-7
3.6
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
-
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →

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