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Ekibastuz vs Tobol 2 Prediction & Stats

Date: 11/09/2026
Time: 11:00
Ekibastuz
Ekibastuz
Vs
44%
23%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tobol 2
Tobol 2
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Ekibastuz’s recent form shows a team that can score heavily, averaging three goals at home against weaker opposition, yet they also concede a similar tally, hinting at defensive frailties. Tobol 2, on the road, has struggled against stronger sides, scoring only one goal on average while conceding two, and they too come off a defeat. The model therefore favours a home win, with a 44 % chance, a 24 % draw and a 32 % away win. The expected total of 3.5 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.9 % probability. The most likely total of three goals carries a 21 % chance. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.1 %), Under 6.5 (93.1 %), Away under 3.5 goals (91.8 %), Over 1.5 (87.8 %), Home under 3.5 goals (87.1 %), Home over 0.5 goals (85.4 %), Under 5.5 (85.1 %) and Home +2 handicap (83.9 %). All selections are presented with their exact percentages.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ekibastuz win
44.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 win
32.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L12L04L03L21W20W31W23L24L13LA·KHA16/10H·IRT24/10H·KAS09/04A·KAS23/07H·YEL30/07A·AKT06/08H·JAI14/08A·AKA20/08H·TUR27/08A·ARY03/09
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.502.171.692.121.292.21
vs Stronger (1)1.002.001.002.00--
vs Similar (27)1.372.261.732.130.922.42
vs Weaker (2)3.501.00--3.501.00
Clean sheet %13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tobol 2Tobol 2

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L12L02L03L40W34L13L01LH·AKA17/07A·TUR24/07H·SHA31/07A·ARY07/08A·AST13/08H·KHA20/08A·TAR28/08H·SPO03/09
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.382.251.252.501.502.00
vs Stronger (7)1.002.571.252.500.672.67
vs Similar (1)4.000.00--4.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %12% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%21%3%07%117%221%319%415%518%6+
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.9%
Under 1.5
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
72.9%
Under 2.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
52.3%
Under 3.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
72.6%
No
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.9%
2-1
8.2%
2-2
7.2%
1-2
7.1%
3-1
5.6%
3-2
4.9%
2-0
4.7%
2-3
4.2%
Ekibastuz goals ↓
Tobol 2 goals →
01234
03.1%3.2%3.5%2.0%0.9%
13.8%8.9%7.1%4.1%1.8%
24.7%8.2%7.2%4.2%1.8%
33.2%5.6%4.9%2.8%1.2%
41.6%2.8%2.5%1.5%0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ekibastuz goals (down), columns = Tobol 2 goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Ekibastuz is 0.91 points better than Tobol 2 in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 0.38).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Ekibastuz is 0.34 goals better than Tobol 2 in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.38).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Ekibastuz is 0.11 goals better than Tobol 2 in terms of goals conceded per game (2.14 vs 2.25).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ekibastuz or Draw
67.1%
Avg Implied -
44%
23%
33%
covers Ekibastuz + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz or Tobol 2
77.2%
Avg Implied -
44%
23%
33%
covers Ekibastuz + Tobol 2
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tobol 2
55.7%
Avg Implied -
44%
23%
33%
covers Draw + Tobol 2
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5
Over
87.0%
Under
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5
Over
60.4%
Under
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5
Over
33.3%
Under
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 3.5
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 0.5
Over
82.6%
Under
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 1.5
Over
52.2%
Under
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 2.5
Over
25.6%
Under
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 3.5
Over
10.1%
Under
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Ekibastuz, so a minus line means Ekibastuz give that many goals of a start and Tobol 2 receive them. At -1, Ekibastuz must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ekibastuz win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ekibastuz)
Ekibastuz -2
12.2%
Draw -2
13.5%
Tobol 2 +2
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ekibastuz)
Ekibastuz -1
25.6%
Draw -1
18.7%
Tobol 2 +1
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ekibastuz)
Ekibastuz +1
67.1%
Draw +1
15.9%
Tobol 2 -1
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ekibastuz)
Ekibastuz +2
83.0%
Draw +2
9.9%
Tobol 2 -2
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D01L02L10W20W11D02L01L00DA·KHA16/10H·IRT24/10H·KAS09/04A·KAS23/07H·YEL30/07A·AKT06/08H·JAI14/08A·AKA20/08H·TUR27/08A·ARY03/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.800.810.620.431.00
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (27)0.560.850.870.670.171.08
vs Weaker (2)2.000.50--2.000.50
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tobol 2Tobol 2

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L00D01L02L30W03L02L01LH·AKA17/07A·TUR24/07H·SHA31/07A·ARY07/08A·AST13/08H·KHA20/08A·TAR28/08H·SPO03/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.381.500.002.000.751.00
vs Stronger (7)0.001.710.002.000.001.33
vs Similar (1)3.000.00--3.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.8%
Under 0.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.3%
Under 1.5
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.5%
Under 2.5
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 HT
Over
56.3%
Under
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 HT
Over
21.4%
Under
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.4%
Under
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L12L03L01L11D00D20W21W23L13LA·KHA16/10H·IRT24/10H·KAS09/04A·KAS23/07H·YEL30/07A·AKT06/08H·JAI14/08A·AKA20/08H·TUR27/08A·ARY03/09
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.370.881.500.861.21
vs Stronger (1)1.002.001.002.00--
vs Similar (27)0.811.410.871.470.751.33
vs Weaker (2)1.500.50--1.500.50
Clean sheet %23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tobol 2Tobol 2

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W12L01L01L10W31W11D00DH·AKA17/07A·TUR24/07H·SHA31/07A·ARY07/08A·AST13/08H·KHA20/08A·TAR28/08H·SPO03/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.751.250.500.751.00
vs Stronger (7)1.000.861.250.500.671.33
vs Similar (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %38% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.5%
Under 0.5
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
57.0%
Under 1.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.1%
Under 2.5
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 2H
Over
62.0%
Under
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 2H
Over
30.1%
Under
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.5%
Under
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.9%
Under
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals98.1%-------
Under 7.596.1%-------
Home under 2.5 HT goals94.7%-------
Away under 2.5 2H goals92.9%-------
Home under 2.5 2H goals92.6%-------
Under 6.591.0%-------
Away under 1.5 HT goals90.6%-------
Away under 3.5 goals89.9%-------
Over 1.589.9%-------
Home over 0.5 goals87.0%-------
Under 2.5 HT goals85.5%-------
Home under 3.5 goals85.0%-------
Home +2 handicap83.0%-------
Away over 0.5 goals82.6%-------
Over 0.5 2H goals82.5%-------
Under 5.581.8%-------
Away under 1.5 2H goals81.1%-------
Home under 1.5 HT goals78.6%-------
Home or Away77.2%-------
Over 0.5 HT goals74.8%-------
Away under 2.5 goals74.4%-------
Away +2 handicap74.4%-------
Under 2.5 2H goals73.9%-------
Over 2.572.9%-------
BTTS Yes72.6%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
EKI wins
0
Draws
0
T2 wins

Head-to-head

Ekibastuz vs Tobol 2 · H/A from EKI
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26AArys Vs EKI3-1
27/08/26HEKI Vs Turan Turkistan2-4
20/08/26AAkademiya Ontustik Vs EKI3-2
14/08/26HEKI Vs Jaiyq3-1
06/08/26AAktobe Jas Vs EKI0-2
30/07/26HEKI Vs Yelimay Semey 22-1
23/07/26AKaspij Aktau 2 Vs EKI3-0
09/04/26HEKI Vs Kaspiy0-4
24/10/25HEKI Vs Irtysh1-2
16/10/25AKhan Tengri Vs EKI4-0

Tobol 2Tobol 2

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26HT2 Vs Sport Academy Kairat0-1
28/08/26ATaraz Vs T23-1
20/08/26HT2 Vs Khan Tengri3-4
13/08/26AAstana II Vs T20-4
07/08/26AArys Vs T23-0
31/07/26HT2 Vs Shakhter Karagandy0-2
24/07/26ATuran Turkistan Vs T22-1
17/07/26HT2 Vs Akademiya Ontustik2-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ekibastuz
Ekibastuz
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLL1.38
HomeLLWWL1.60
AwayLLWLL1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%48%36%
AVG goals3.724.003.44
Over 1.5 %88%96%80%
Over 2.5 %76%84%68%
Over 3.5 %52%60%44%
Scored1.682.041.32
Conceded2.041.962.12
BTTS62%76%48%
Clean Sheet20%16%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Tobol 2
Tobol 2
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL0.38
HomeLLLL0.00
AwayLLWL0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %12%0%25%
AVG goals3.623.753.50
Over 1.5 %88%75%100%
Over 2.5 %75%50%100%
Over 3.5 %50%50%50%
Scored1.381.251.50
Conceded2.252.502.00
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet12%0%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy721
100%
3.0
242+22
3.7
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.40.3
-
2Akademiya OntustikAkademiya Ontustik819
75%
2.4
1610+6
3.2
88%
88%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.2
-
3Sport Academy KairatSport Academy Kairat817
62%
2.1
183+15
2.6
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.20.4
-
4Turan TurkistanTuran Turkistan716
71%
2.3
168+8
3.4
71%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.1
-
5TarazTaraz812
38%
1.5
810-2
2.2
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
6Kaspij Aktau 2Kaspij Aktau 2710
43%
1.4
1211+1
3.3
71%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
7EkibastuzEkibastuz79
43%
1.3
1215-3
3.9
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.1
-
8Astana IIAstana II89
38%
1.1
918-9
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.2
-
9JaiyqJaiyq78
29%
1.1
77+0
2.0
57%
29%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
10ArysArys88
25%
1.0
813-5
2.6
75%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
11Khan TengriKhan Tengri87
25%
0.9
814-6
2.8
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
12Aktobe JasAktobe Jas87
25%
0.9
1023-13
4.1
88%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.9
-
13Yelimay Semey 2Yelimay Semey 276
29%
0.9
613-7
2.7
57%
57%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
14Tobol 2Tobol 283
12%
0.4
1118-7
3.6
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
-
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →

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