This opponent (Alaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alaves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.60
1.07
1.47
0.73
1.73
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
2.00
1.00
1.60
0.83
2.33
vs Similar (17)
0.94
1.47
1.11
1.56
0.75
1.38
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Elche) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.5%
Under 1.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.5%
@ 2.58+1.5%
Under 2.5
61.5%
@ 1.51-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.6%
Under 3.5
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.6%
No
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.9%
1-1
13.7%
0-0
12.0%
2-0
10.6%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.6%
1-2
5.1%
3-0
5.0%
Elche goals ↓
Alaves goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
7.6%
3.6%
1.0%
0.2%
1
14%
14%
5.1%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
8.8%
3.6%
1.0%
0.2%
3
5.0%
4.1%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.8%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elche goals (down), columns = Alaves goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Atletico Madrid
2.26
Real Madrid
2.21
Barcelona
2.08
Sevilla
2.03
Real Sociedad
1.63
Real Betis
1.61
Villarreal
1.53
Celta Vigo
1.39
Athletic Club
1.21
Granada CF
1.21
Cadiz
1.16
Osasuna
1.16
Valencia
1.13
Levante
1.08
Getafe
1.00
Alaves
1.00
Elche
0.95
Huesca
0.89
Valladolid
0.82
Eibar
0.79
Elche is 0.05 points worse than Alaves in terms of average points per game (0.95 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.24
Atletico Madrid
1.76
Real Madrid
1.76
Villarreal
1.58
Real Sociedad
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.45
Sevilla
1.39
Real Betis
1.32
Valencia
1.32
Granada CF
1.24
Athletic Club
1.21
Levante
1.21
Osasuna
0.97
Cadiz
0.95
Alaves
0.95
Valladolid
0.89
Huesca
0.89
Elche
0.89
Eibar
0.76
Getafe
0.74
Elche is 0.05 goals worse than Alaves in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 0.95).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Atletico Madrid
0.66
Real Madrid
0.74
Sevilla
0.87
Real Sociedad
1.00
Barcelona
1.00
Athletic Club
1.11
Getafe
1.13
Villarreal
1.16
Osasuna
1.26
Real Betis
1.32
Eibar
1.37
Huesca
1.39
Valencia
1.39
Elche
1.45
Valladolid
1.50
Celta Vigo
1.50
Alaves
1.50
Levante
1.50
Cadiz
1.53
Granada CF
1.71
Elche is 0.05 goals better than Alaves in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Elche
For 3.9 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 13.2 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Alaves
For 4.5 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 14.1 · Total 27.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Elche
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.9
7.7
8.1
5.2
5.3
5.2
28.3
28.2
28.4
vs Stronger (11)
7.2
7.2
7.2
3.5
4.0
3.0
25.1
26.2
24.2
vs Similar (31)
8.0
7.8
8.3
5.7
6.1
5.4
28.5
28.8
28.2
vs Weaker (8)
8.6
8.2
9.0
5.8
4.0
7.5
32.0
28.5
35.5
% over line
22%
24%
20%
76%
84%
68%
92%
96%
88%
% under line
78%
76%
80%
24%
16%
32%
8%
4%
12%
This opponent (Alaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alaves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
8.4
8.9
5.1
5.6
4.5
28.1
28.4
27.8
vs Stronger (20)
9.1
8.7
9.4
4.9
5.3
4.5
26.8
26.8
26.8
vs Similar (28)
8.3
8.0
8.6
5.2
6.0
4.5
28.8
29.5
28.1
vs Weaker (2)
8.5
10.0
7.0
4.0
3.0
5.0
31.0
28.0
34.0
% over line
38%
36%
40%
66%
72%
60%
86%
84%
88%
% under line
62%
64%
60%
34%
28%
40%
14%
16%
12%
This opponent (Elche) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Valencia
9.6
Levante
9.5
Real Madrid
9.3
Athletic Club
9.3
Cadiz
9.3
Eibar
9.3
Real Betis
9.3
Valladolid
9.2
Atletico Madrid
9.1
Barcelona
9.1
Sevilla
9.0
Alaves
8.6
Granada CF
8.6
Real Sociedad
8.6
Celta Vigo
8.3
Huesca
8.3
Villarreal
8.1
Elche
7.9
Osasuna
7.9
Getafe
7.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Getafe
6.7
Celta Vigo
5.7
Granada CF
5.6
Elche
5.2
Sevilla
5.1
Alaves
5.1
Cadiz
5.0
Valencia
5.0
Real Betis
4.9
Real Sociedad
4.9
Valladolid
4.8
Athletic Club
4.7
Atletico Madrid
4.5
Osasuna
4.3
Villarreal
4.3
Levante
4.2
Barcelona
4.2
Real Madrid
4.0
Huesca
4.0
Eibar
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
31.4
Celta Vigo
29.5
Huesca
29.0
Elche
28.3
Alaves
28.1
Granada CF
28.0
Valladolid
28.0
Real Sociedad
27.7
Cadiz
27.6
Real Betis
27.1
Sevilla
26.9
Valencia
26.2
Athletic Club
26.1
Atletico Madrid
25.9
Osasuna
25.8
Levante
25.4
Villarreal
25.0
Barcelona
24.7
Eibar
24.5
Real Madrid
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
34.9%
Under 9.5
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
68.5%
Under 3.5
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
86.2%
Under 21.5
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Elche
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.77
0.50
0.71
0.31
0.81
vs Stronger (10)
0.00
0.70
0.00
1.25
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.74
0.70
0.50
0.44
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Alaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alaves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.63
0.60
0.87
0.33
0.40
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.64
0.40
0.80
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.71
0.78
1.00
0.25
0.38
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Elche) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elche over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elche over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elche over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Elche
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.83
0.50
0.50
0.31
1.12
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.00
0.75
0.25
0.33
1.50
vs Similar (19)
0.37
0.74
0.40
0.60
0.33
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Alaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alaves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.97
0.47
0.60
0.40
1.33
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
1.36
0.60
0.80
0.33
1.83
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.76
0.33
0.56
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Elche) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elche over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elche over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elche over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Elche · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fernando Niño33%
Marc Aguado33%
Buba Sangaré33%
Matías Dituro0%
Gonzalo Villar0%
Tete Morente0%
David Affengruber0%
Germán Valera0%
Víctor Chust0%
Lucas Cepeda0%
Ali Houary0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gonzalo Villar33%
Ali Houary33%
Matías Dituro0%
Tete Morente0%
David Affengruber0%
Germán Valera0%
Víctor Chust0%
Fernando Niño0%
Marc Aguado0%
Lucas Cepeda0%
Buba Sangaré0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gonzalo Villar33%
Tete Morente33%
Lucas Cepeda33%
Matías Dituro0%
David Affengruber0%
Germán Valera0%
Víctor Chust0%
Fernando Niño0%
Marc Aguado0%
Buba Sangaré0%
Ali Houary0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fernando Niño33%
Matías Dituro0%
Gonzalo Villar0%
Tete Morente0%
David Affengruber0%
Germán Valera0%
Víctor Chust0%
Marc Aguado0%
Lucas Cepeda0%
Buba Sangaré0%
Ali Houary0%
Alaves · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mariano Díaz67%
Nahuel Tenaglia33%
Denis Suárez0%
Jonny Otto0%
Toni Martínez0%
Antonio Sivera0%
Ville Koski0%
Pablo Ibáñez0%
Antonio Blanco0%
Abderrahman Rebbach0%
Ángel Pérez0%
Youssef Enriquez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mariano Díaz67%
Abderrahman Rebbach67%
Denis Suárez33%
Nahuel Tenaglia33%
Antonio Sivera33%
Antonio Blanco33%
Jonny Otto0%
Toni Martínez0%
Ville Koski0%
Pablo Ibáñez0%
Ángel Pérez0%
Youssef Enriquez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mariano Díaz33%
Ángel Pérez33%
Denis Suárez0%
Nahuel Tenaglia0%
Jonny Otto0%
Toni Martínez0%
Antonio Sivera0%
Ville Koski0%
Pablo Ibáñez0%
Antonio Blanco0%
Abderrahman Rebbach0%
Youssef Enriquez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Toni Martínez67%
Antonio Blanco33%
Mariano Díaz0%
Denis Suárez0%
Nahuel Tenaglia0%
Jonny Otto0%
Antonio Sivera0%
Ville Koski0%
Pablo Ibáñez0%
Abderrahman Rebbach0%
Ángel Pérez0%
Youssef Enriquez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
ELC (27)
€79m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
CAD (29)
€27m
VAL (29)
€26m
GC (18)
€17m
EIB (24)
€15m
HUE (21)
€5m
Elche's squad is €11m more valuable than Alaves's (€79m vs €68m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
CAD (12)
€11m
VAL (11)
€10m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
HUE (9)
€2m
Elche's attack is €10m more valuable than Alaves's (€34m vs €24m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
GET (6)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
VAL (6)
€6m
CAD (5)
€3m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
HUE (4)
€1m
Elche's midfield is €10m less valuable than Alaves's (€12m vs €22m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
VAL (12)
€39m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
GET (13)
€26m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
CAD (12)
€12m
VAL (12)
€10m
GC (10)
€9m
EIB (10)
€5m
HUE (8)
€2m
Elche's defence is €11m more valuable than Alaves's (€33m vs €22m).
Spain: La Liga 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid
Barcelona
Sevilla
Real Sociedad
Real Betis
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
Athletic Club
Granada CF
Osasuna
Cadiz
Valencia
Levante
Getafe
Huesca
Valladolid
Eibar