The model favours an Atletico Madrid victory, with a 51% chance of the away side taking the win, 27% for a draw and 22% for Elche. The expected total goals hover at 2.7, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.7% probability. Elche, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.25 goals scored and 3.25 conceded, while Atletico Madrid, on the road against a weaker side, scores 1.5 and concedes 1.88. The suggested picks span a wide range of outcomes: Under 7.5 goals (98.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.3%), Under 6.5 (96.8%), Under 5.5 (91.9%), Away +2 handicap (91.4%), Home under 2.5 goals (89.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (88.2%) and Over 19.5 fouls (86.9%). Elcheās recent form shows two straight defeats, while Atletico come off a win, adding context to the projected result.
Advertisement
šÆ 1. Model Analysis
Elche win
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid win
49.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
Elche
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.73
1.62
1.46
1.12
1.94
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
3.00
1.25
3.25
1.00
2.75
vs Similar (21)
1.43
1.29
1.78
0.67
1.17
1.75
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.60
2.12
1.25
1.50
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
2.08
1.75
2.67
1.33
1.50
2.17
vs Weaker (18)
1.67
1.50
1.80
1.20
1.50
1.88
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Elche) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.5%
Under 1.5
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.9%
Under 2.5
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.8%
Under 3.5
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
0-1
9.8%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
9.0%
0-0
7.8%
2-1
6.2%
1-0
5.9%
1-3
5.3%
Elche goals ↓
Atletico Madrid goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
9.8%
9.0%
5.0%
2.0%
1
5.9%
13%
9.6%
5.3%
2.2%
2
3.8%
6.2%
5.1%
2.8%
1.2%
3
1.3%
2.2%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elche goals (down), columns = Atletico Madrid goals (across).
Advertisement
šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Elche is 0.68 points worse than Atletico Madrid in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 1.82).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Elche is 0.34 goals worse than Atletico Madrid in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.63).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Elche is 0.34 goals worse than Atletico Madrid in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.16).
ā±ļø Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Elche is 4.4 percentage points better than Atletico Madrid in terms of average possession (58% vs 53%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Elche or Draw
49.0%
Avg Implied -
23%
27%
50%
covers Elche + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elche or Atletico Madrid
74.6%
Avg Implied -
23%
27%
50%
covers Elche + Atletico Madrid
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Atletico Madrid
76.3%
Avg Implied -
23%
27%
50%
covers Draw + Atletico Madrid
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Elche over/under 0.5
Over
68.9%
Under
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elche over/under 1.5
Over
32.5%
Under
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elche over/under 2.5
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elche over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5
Over
83.4%
Under
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5
Over
53.5%
Under
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5
Over
26.8%
Under
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 3.5
Over
10.8%
Under
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
āļø 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Elche, so a minus line means Elche give that many goals of a start and Atletico Madrid receive them. At -1, Elche must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Elche win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Elche)
Elche -2
3.0%
Draw -2
6.7%
Atletico Madrid +2
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Elche)
Elche -1
9.7%
Draw -1
13.9%
Atletico Madrid +1
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Elche)
Elche +1
49.0%
Draw +1
22.0%
Atletico Madrid -1
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Elche)
Elche +2
71.0%
Draw +2
15.9%
Atletico Madrid -2
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Elche
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.69
0.69
0.47
0.82
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.75
1.00
2.00
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.43
0.56
0.11
0.58
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.87
1.00
0.75
0.86
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.25
0.83
1.83
1.00
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (18)
0.72
0.89
0.50
0.60
1.00
1.25
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Elche) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elche over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elche over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elche over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Elche
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.97
0.92
0.77
0.65
1.12
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.25
0.25
1.25
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.86
1.22
0.56
0.58
1.08
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.73
1.12
0.50
0.64
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.92
0.83
0.33
0.83
1.50
vs Weaker (18)
0.94
0.61
1.30
0.60
0.50
0.62
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Elche) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elche over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elche over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elche over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
š° 14. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Elche's squad is €574m less valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€79m vs €653m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Elche's attack is €256m less valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€34m vs €290m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Elche's midfield is €143m less valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€12m vs €155m).
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Elche's defence is €175m less valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€33m vs €208m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →