Elche vs Valencia Result & Analysis

Elche and Valencia face a tightly contested encounter, with the model favouring a home win. The probability split is 41% for Elche, 30% for a draw, and 29% for Valencia, making the home side the clear favourite. The expected total goals hover at 2.3, with the most likely total being 2, a 28% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.3% probability. Elche, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.25 goals scored and 0.88 conceded. Valencia, on the road, averages 0.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls (92.2%), Over 2.5 cards (86.0%), Over 21.5 fouls (84.1%), Under 11.5 corners (80.2%), Under 3.5 (79.0%), Over 23.5 fouls (72.2% miss), Over 3.5 cards (71.0%), and Under 10.5 corners (70.4%). Both teams have recently struggled, each ending a two-game losing streak, but Elche’s home form gives them a slight edge.

Elche’s win extends a run that had stalled after two straight defeats, while Valencia’s form mirrors the same pattern. The model predicted a home win with a 41% probability and was right, as Elche triumphed 2-1. The most likely scoreline was 1-1, yet the final tally was 2-1, confirming the model’s favoured outcome. The model’s selections largely proved accurate: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 92.2%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 86.0%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 84.1%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 80.2%, Under 3.5 hit at 79.0%, Over 3.5 cards hit at 71.0%, and Under 10.5 corners hit at 70.4%. Only Over 23.5 fouls missed, scoring 72.2%. The predictions delivered a solid match analysis.