Emmen’s recent run of four wins after a heavy defeat shows resilience, while FC Volendam’s recent victory over Dordrecht, though a 6-1 outburst, masks a shaky away form. The model sees a home win as the most likely outcome, with probabilities of 39% for Emmen, 27% for a draw and 34% for Volendam. The expected goal total is 2.8, centring on a 2-goal match; the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13% chance. Emmen averages 1.45 goals scored and 1.27 conceded at home against similarly ranked opponents, whereas Volendam concedes 1.4 and scores 1.1 on the road against such teams. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.4% with a 4% edge), Under 6.5 (98.2% with a 7% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.9% with a 6% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.1% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.1% with an 8% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (95.6% with a 9% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (95.4% with a 7% edge) and Under 5.5 (94.9% with a 10% edge).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Emmen win
37.4%
Avg Implied 40.3% · @ 2.30
Edge
-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.40
Dafabet
2.38
Bet365
2.38
10Bet
2.35
Betano
2.32
Draw
27.4%
Avg Implied 24.8% · @ 3.74
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.93
BetVictor
3.90
10Bet
3.80
Dafabet
3.80
FC Volendam win
35.1%
Avg Implied 34.9% · @ 2.65
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.78
Betano
2.77
Marathonbet
2.71
Betfair
2.70
Bet365
2.70
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Emmen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.90
1.67
1.40
1.40
2.40
vs Stronger (7)
1.86
1.71
2.25
1.75
1.33
1.67
vs Similar (23)
1.43
1.96
1.45
1.27
1.42
2.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Volendam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Volendam
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.47
1.57
1.29
0.75
1.62
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.55
1.20
1.00
0.17
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.33
1.50
1.62
1.62
1.10
1.40
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Emmen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.7%
@ 1.10-6.1%
Under 1.5
21.3%
@ 6.16+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Pinnacle
1.11
Under
Pinnacle
6.83
BetVictor
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.25
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.0%
@ 1.38-13.1%
Under 2.5
46.0%
@ 2.83+13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.41
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.97
BetVictor
2.90
10Bet
2.90
Bet365
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.7%
@ 1.98-15.7%
Under 3.5
68.3%
@ 1.78+15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.02
Superbet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Both teams to score
Yes
58.7%
@ 1.35-10.0%
No
41.3%
@ 2.95+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.38
Unibet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Betfair
1.36
No
Betfair
3.10
1xBet
3.04
BetVictor
3.00
Betano
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%@ 7.75+7.1%
2-1
8.5%@ 8.98+3.5%
1-2
8.2%@ 9.78+3.6%
1-0
7.3%@ 13.07+3.8%
0-0
7.0%@ 17.94+4.5%
0-1
7.0%@ 14.22+3.8%
2-0
6.1%@ 15.12+3.1%
2-2
5.9%@ 9.49+1.2%
Emmen goals ↓
FC Volendam goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
7.0%
5.7%
2.6%
0.9%
1
7.3%
13%
8.2%
3.8%
1.3%
2
6.1%
8.5%
5.9%
2.8%
1.0%
3
2.9%
4.1%
2.9%
1.3%
0.5%
4
1.1%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Emmen goals (down), columns = FC Volendam goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Emmen is 0.32 points worse than FC Volendam in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Emmen is 0.03 goals better than FC Volendam in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Emmen is 0.39 goals worse than FC Volendam in terms of goals conceded per game (1.89 vs 1.50).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Emmen or Draw
63.9%
Avg Implied 65.3% · @ 1.43
Edge
-1.4%
37%
27%
35%
covers Emmen + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
SBO
1.44
Emmen or FC Volendam
71.3%
Avg Implied 75.4% · @ 1.24
Edge
-4.1%
37%
27%
35%
covers Emmen + FC Volendam
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Draw or FC Volendam
64.8%
Avg Implied 59.3% · @ 1.57
Edge
+5.5%
37%
27%
35%
covers Draw + FC Volendam
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Bet365
1.62
William Hil
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Emmen over/under 0.5
Over
72.9%
@ 1.14-8.7%
Under
27.1%
@ 5.04+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Under
1xBet
5.55
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
10Bet
5.00
Emmen over/under 1.5
Over
37.5%
@ 1.71-16.9%
Under
62.5%
@ 2.04+16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.76
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Under
Pinnacle
2.12
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.06
Emmen over/under 2.5
Over
14.4%
@ 3.21-14.4%
Under
85.6%
@ 1.30+14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.35
10Bet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Under
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.33
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Emmen over/under 3.5
Over
4.4%
@ 6.80-9.3%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.08+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
7.00
1xBet
6.60
Betfair
6.50
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
FC Volendam over/under 0.5
Over
73.4%
@ 1.16-6.5%
Under
26.6%
@ 4.61+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Under
1xBet
4.95
10Bet
4.75
BetVictor
4.75
Betano
4.65
Superbet
4.55
FC Volendam over/under 1.5
Over
38.2%
@ 1.84-12.2%
Under
61.8%
@ 1.87+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathonbet
1.87
Unibet
1.86
1xBet
1.83
Superbet
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.91
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Superbet
1.87
FC Volendam over/under 2.5
Over
14.9%
@ 3.67-10.3%
Under
85.1%
@ 1.24+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.85
Unibet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Under
Betano
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
FC Volendam over/under 3.5
Over
4.6%
@ 8.00-7.1%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.06+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
8.50
Superbet
7.60
Betano
7.40
1xBet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Emmen, so a minus line means Emmen give that many goals of a start and FC Volendam receive them. At -1, Emmen must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Emmen win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Emmen)
Emmen -2
5.6%
@ 7.97-5.6%
Draw -2
10.5%
@ 6.47-3.3%
FC Volendam +2
83.8%
@ 1.20+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.90
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.90
Betfair
6.50
Superbet
6.40
10Bet
6.25
Away
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Handicap -1 (Emmen)
Emmen -1
16.2%
@ 3.93-6.5%
Draw -1
19.0%
@ 4.33-1.6%
FC Volendam +1
64.8%
@ 1.57+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Unibet
3.80
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.50
Superbet
4.35
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Away
Marathonbet
1.58
Unibet
1.58
10Bet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Handicap +1 (Emmen)
Emmen +1
63.9%
@ 1.42+1.0%
Draw +1
19.3%
@ 4.82+0.7%
FC Volendam -1
16.8%
@ 4.84-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Superbet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Away
Marathonbet
5.05
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.75
Handicap +2 (Emmen)
Emmen +2
83.2%
@ 1.14+5.6%
Draw +2
10.9%
@ 6.81-2.1%
FC Volendam -2
5.9%
@ 9.35-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.05
Away
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
9.50
10Bet
8.00
Marathonbet
6.25
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Emmen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.17
0.80
0.87
0.47
1.47
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.14
0.75
1.25
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.57
1.17
0.82
0.73
0.33
1.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Volendam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Volendam
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.71
0.64
0.38
0.94
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
0.73
0.60
0.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.89
0.75
1.12
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Emmen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.9%
@ 1.20-4.1%
Under 0.5
27.1%
@ 4.02+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
William Hil
4.33
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
3.94
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.6%
@ 2.01-5.6%
Under 1.5
59.4%
@ 1.73+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.09
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Unibet
2.02
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
10Bet
1.77
William Hil
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.6%
@ 4.24-8.2%
Under 2.5
86.4%
@ 1.19+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.25
Under
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
BetVictor
1.18
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Emmen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.6%
@ 1.68-12.7%
Under
57.4%
@ 2.08+12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.73
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Unibet
1.66
Under
Pinnacle
2.18
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.05
Emmen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.2%
@ 4.32-11.2%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.18+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.60
Superbet
4.40
1xBet
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Betano
4.20
Under
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Emmen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.8%
@ 11.17-6.6%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.03+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
FC Volendam over/under 0.5 HT
Over
54.7%
@ 1.78+2.5%
Under
45.3%
@ 1.95-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
Unibet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Superbet
1.76
Under
10Bet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.99
1xBet
1.96
Superbet
1.95
Betano
1.93
FC Volendam over/under 1.5 HT
Over
20.6%
@ 4.82+1.4%
Under
79.4%
@ 1.15-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.30
Betano
4.90
Superbet
4.70
1xBet
4.70
10Bet
4.50
Under
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
FC Volendam over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.6%
@ 12.67-2.8%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.02+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Emmen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.73
0.87
0.53
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
0.57
1.50
0.50
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.78
0.64
0.55
1.08
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Volendam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Volendam
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.86
0.64
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
0.82
0.60
1.00
0.17
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.61
0.88
0.50
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Emmen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.8%
@ 1.11-2.9%
Under 0.5
19.2%
@ 5.73+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Under
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.80
Betano
5.80
William Hil
5.80
Marathonbet
5.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.1%
@ 1.58-7.4%
Under 1.5
48.9%
@ 2.23+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.62
Unibet
1.61
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Under
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.27
William Hil
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.6%
@ 2.77-12.9%
Under 2.5
79.4%
@ 1.39+12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.87
William Hil
2.80
Marathonbet
2.77
Bet365
2.75
1xBet
2.73
Under
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
Superbet
1.36
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Emmen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.1%
@ 1.50-13.9%
Under
51.9%
@ 2.45+13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.64
Superbet
1.50
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Under
Betano
2.62
1xBet
2.55
10Bet
2.55
Superbet
2.42
Marathonbet
2.10
Emmen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.1%
@ 3.17-13.1%
Under
83.9%
@ 1.31+13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.35
10Bet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
1xBet
3.10
Betano
3.00
Under
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Emmen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.6%
@ 7.90-8.1%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.05+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
8.50
1xBet
8.30
10Bet
8.00
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
FC Volendam over/under 0.5 2H
Over
61.0%
@ 1.51-0.5%
Under
39.0%
@ 2.41+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Under
Betano
2.50
10Bet
2.45
1xBet
2.35
Superbet
2.35
FC Volendam over/under 1.5 2H
Over
26.3%
@ 3.46-0.5%
Under
73.7%
@ 1.27+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.64
Superbet
3.50
1xBet
3.50
10Bet
3.35
Betano
3.30
Under
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
FC Volendam over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.0%
@ 8.78-4.5%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.04+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.70
Superbet
9.10
10Bet
8.50
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.8%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+6.6%
Under 6.5
98.2%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.03
+7.2%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.4%
1.05
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-
+8.1%
Home under 3.5 goals
95.6%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
+9.3%
Away under 3.5 goals
95.4%
1.06
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+7.1%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.4%
1.02
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+2.8%
Under 5.5
94.9%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Pinnacle
1.13
Betfair
1.13
+11.3%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.0%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
+4.5%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.8%
1.18
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
+11.2%
Under 5.5 cards
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.3%
1.31
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
+16.3%
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.4%
1.19
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
BetVictor
1.18
+8.2%
Over 19.5 fouls
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.6%
1.30
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.33
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
+14.4%
Away under 2.5 goals
85.1%
1.24
Betano
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
+10.3%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.9%
1.31
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Superbet
1.28
+13.1%
Away +2 handicap
83.8%
1.20
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
+9.0%
Home +2 handicap
83.2%
1.14
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
+5.6%
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.8%
1.11
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
-2.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.4%
1.39
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
Superbet
1.36
+12.9%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
79.4%
1.15
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
-1.4%
Over 1.5
78.7%
1.10
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Pinnacle
1.11
-6.1%
Under 4.5 cards
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
73.7%
1.27
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+0.5%
Away over 0.5 goals
73.4%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
-6.5%
Home over 0.5 goals
72.9%
1.14
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
-8.7%
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.9%
1.20
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
-4.1%
Over 8.5 corners
71.7%
1.29
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
-
+1.2%
Home or Away
71.3%
1.24
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.24
-4.1%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Emmen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Freddy Quispel75%
Nelson Amadin50%
Michael Breij25%
Jack Cooper Love25%
Alessandro Hojabrpour0%
Casper Staring0%
Bryan Van Hove0%
Mustafa Abdullatif0%
Joshua Mukeh0%
Yanis Dede-Lhomme0%
Luca Everink0%
Sam Karssies0%
Sybrand Veldhuis0%
Vincent Carus0%
Daan Lambers0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Alessandro Hojabrpour50%
Bryan Van Hove50%
Yanis Dede-Lhomme50%
Michael Breij25%
Joshua Mukeh25%
Luca Everink25%
Sybrand Veldhuis25%
Freddy Quispel0%
Nelson Amadin0%
Jack Cooper Love0%
Casper Staring0%
Mustafa Abdullatif0%
Sam Karssies0%
Vincent Carus0%
Daan Lambers0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jack Cooper Love50%
Yanis Dede-Lhomme50%
Michael Breij25%
Casper Staring25%
Bryan Van Hove25%
Luca Everink25%
Sam Karssies25%
Freddy Quispel0%
Alessandro Hojabrpour0%
Nelson Amadin0%
Mustafa Abdullatif0%
Joshua Mukeh0%
Sybrand Veldhuis0%
Vincent Carus0%
Daan Lambers0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Freddy Quispel75%
Jack Cooper Love75%
Michael Breij50%
Nelson Amadin50%
Alessandro Hojabrpour0%
Casper Staring0%
Bryan Van Hove0%
Mustafa Abdullatif0%
Joshua Mukeh0%
Yanis Dede-Lhomme0%
Luca Everink0%
Sam Karssies0%
Sybrand Veldhuis0%
Vincent Carus0%
Daan Lambers0%
FC Volendam
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Henk Veerman67%
Reuven Niemeijer33%
Nick Doodeman33%
Alex Plat0%
Mawouna Amevor0%
Daan Huisman0%
Roy Steur0%
Kayden Wolff0%
Precious Ugwu0%
Nordin Bukala0%
Luca Blondeau0%
Jesper Tielemans0%
JaĂŻr Haakmat0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nick Doodeman33%
Daan Huisman33%
JaĂŻr Haakmat33%
Henk Veerman0%
Reuven Niemeijer0%
Alex Plat0%
Mawouna Amevor0%
Roy Steur0%
Kayden Wolff0%
Precious Ugwu0%
Nordin Bukala0%
Luca Blondeau0%
Jesper Tielemans0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nick Doodeman67%
Reuven Niemeijer33%
Alex Plat33%
Henk Veerman0%
Mawouna Amevor0%
Daan Huisman0%
Roy Steur0%
Kayden Wolff0%
Precious Ugwu0%
Nordin Bukala0%
Luca Blondeau0%
Jesper Tielemans0%
JaĂŻr Haakmat0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Henk Veerman33%
Reuven Niemeijer33%
Alex Plat0%
Nick Doodeman0%
Mawouna Amevor0%
Daan Huisman0%
Roy Steur0%
Kayden Wolff0%
Precious Ugwu0%
Nordin Bukala0%
Luca Blondeau0%
Jesper Tielemans0%
JaĂŻr Haakmat0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
Emmen's squad is €2m less valuable than FC Volendam's (€5m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Emmen and FC Volendam have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
Emmen and FC Volendam have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Emmen's defence is €2m less valuable than FC Volendam's (€1m vs €3m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Heracles
MVV
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Jong PSV U21
Vitesse
Roda
NAC Breda
Jong AZ
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Jong Ajax
Dordrecht
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht