This opponent (Avellino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Avellino
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.50
1.56
1.12
1.07
1.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (25)
1.40
1.52
1.62
1.23
1.17
1.83
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Empoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.3%
Under 1.5
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
70.0%
Under 2.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
48.8%
Under 3.5
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.6%
No
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.2%
2-0
9.1%
3-1
8.0%
3-0
7.9%
1-1 ✓
7.8%
1-0
6.3%
4-1
5.2%
4-0
5.2%
Empoli goals ↓
Avellino goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
2.0%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
1
6.3%
7.8%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
2
9.1%
9.2%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
3
7.9%
8.0%
4.1%
1.4%
0.3%
4
5.2%
5.2%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Empoli goals (down), columns = Avellino goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Empoli
2.02
Frosinone
1.71
Parma
1.71
Palermo
1.69
Bari
1.60
Venezia
1.60
Cittadella
1.57
Perugia
1.43
Foggia
1.38
Spezia
1.26
Carpi
1.24
Salernitana
1.21
Cesena
1.19
Cremonese
1.14
Pescara
1.14
Avellino
1.14
Brescia
1.14
Ascoli
1.10
Virtus Entella
1.05
Novara
1.05
Pro Vercelli
0.95
Ternana
0.88
Empoli is 0.88 points better than Avellino in terms of average points per game (2.02 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Empoli
2.10
Perugia
1.60
Foggia
1.57
Frosinone
1.55
Ternana
1.48
Cittadella
1.45
Bari
1.40
Palermo
1.40
Parma
1.36
Venezia
1.33
Cesena
1.31
Salernitana
1.21
Pescara
1.19
Avellino
1.17
Cremonese
1.14
Pro Vercelli
1.12
Spezia
1.10
Novara
1.00
Brescia
0.98
Virtus Entella
0.98
Ascoli
0.95
Carpi
0.76
Empoli is 0.93 goals better than Avellino in terms of goals scored per game (2.10 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Parma
0.88
Palermo
0.93
Venezia
1.00
Spezia
1.07
Carpi
1.10
Cremonese
1.12
Frosinone
1.12
Bari
1.14
Cittadella
1.14
Empoli
1.17
Brescia
1.24
Novara
1.24
Virtus Entella
1.29
Perugia
1.38
Salernitana
1.38
Ascoli
1.43
Avellino
1.43
Cesena
1.45
Pescara
1.52
Foggia
1.62
Pro Vercelli
1.67
Ternana
1.83
Empoli is 0.26 goals better than Avellino in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Empoli
For 4.5 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.1 · Against 13.7 · Total 28.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Avellino
For 4.9 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.9 · Against 16.9 · Total 32.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Empoli
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.2
9.6
4.5
4.6
4.4
29.6
30.4
28.9
vs Stronger (9)
11.3
8.0
13.0
5.0
5.3
4.8
29.7
31.7
28.7
vs Similar (23)
9.0
9.6
8.3
5.0
5.3
4.6
29.2
30.1
28.1
vs Weaker (18)
10.2
11.9
8.8
3.7
3.2
4.0
30.1
30.5
29.8
% over line
54%
62%
46%
70%
67%
73%
92%
88%
96%
% under line
46%
38%
54%
30%
33%
27%
8%
12%
4%
This opponent (Avellino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Avellino
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.6
8.9
2.4
2.5
2.3
33.4
32.6
34.4
vs Stronger (4)
12.7
15.0
11.5
2.0
1.0
2.3
25.3
17.0
29.5
vs Similar (42)
9.4
10.3
8.5
2.5
2.4
2.5
34.3
33.4
35.3
vs Weaker (4)
10.0
10.0
-
2.5
5.0
0.0
38.0
38.0
-
% over line
48%
64%
31%
32%
28%
36%
96%
93%
100%
% under line
52%
36%
69%
68%
72%
64%
4%
7%
0%
This opponent (Empoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Venezia
11.6
Cremonese
11.4
Bari
10.9
Brescia
10.7
Frosinone
10.7
Foggia
10.6
Virtus Entella
10.4
Cittadella
10.3
Carpi
10.2
Ternana
10.2
Spezia
10.1
Palermo
10.1
Pescara
10.1
Cesena
9.9
Empoli
9.9
Avellino
9.8
Salernitana
9.6
Parma
9.6
Novara
9.5
Perugia
9.5
Pro Vercelli
9.3
Ascoli
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Novara
5.1
Perugia
5.1
Parma
5.0
Frosinone
4.9
Cittadella
4.9
Brescia
4.8
Ascoli
4.7
Cremonese
4.7
Carpi
4.6
Empoli
4.5
Spezia
4.5
Cesena
4.5
Avellino
4.5
Pescara
4.5
Pro Vercelli
4.4
Virtus Entella
4.4
Palermo
4.3
Venezia
4.3
Salernitana
4.3
Bari
4.3
Foggia
3.7
Ternana
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Virtus Entella
34.2
Avellino
33.4
Perugia
33.1
Novara
33.0
Brescia
32.4
Frosinone
32.3
Cittadella
31.6
Salernitana
31.5
Carpi
31.3
Cremonese
30.9
Pro Vercelli
30.9
Ascoli
30.6
Pescara
30.1
Parma
30.1
Empoli
29.6
Ternana
29.2
Spezia
29.1
Cesena
29.1
Palermo
28.9
Bari
28.2
Foggia
28.0
Venezia
27.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.6%
Under 9.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
60.7%
Under 3.5
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
97.5%
Under 21.5
2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Empoli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.57
0.86
0.43
0.94
0.69
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.57
1.17
0.50
0.75
0.62
vs Weaker (15)
0.93
0.53
0.71
0.29
1.12
0.75
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Avellino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Avellino
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.63
0.38
0.44
0.64
0.86
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.64
0.46
0.46
0.75
0.83
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Empoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Empoli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Empoli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Empoli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Avellino over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Avellino over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Avellino over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Empoli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.80
1.50
0.64
0.88
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.57
1.07
2.17
1.00
1.12
1.12
vs Weaker (15)
0.87
0.60
1.14
0.43
0.62
0.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Avellino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Avellino
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.87
1.19
0.69
0.43
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.88
1.15
0.77
0.42
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.50
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Empoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Empoli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Empoli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Empoli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Avellino over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Avellino over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Avellino over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Empoli · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Edoardo Saporiti67%
Stiven Shpendi33%
Marco Curto0%
Luca Magnino0%
Cristian Cauz0%
Gerard Yepes0%
Filippo Distefano0%
Jacopo Seghetti0%
Bogdan Popov0%
Matteo Egan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gerard Yepes67%
Marco Curto33%
Luca Magnino33%
Cristian Cauz0%
Stiven Shpendi0%
Filippo Distefano0%
Edoardo Saporiti0%
Jacopo Seghetti0%
Bogdan Popov0%
Matteo Egan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cristian Cauz33%
Matteo Egan33%
Marco Curto0%
Luca Magnino0%
Gerard Yepes0%
Stiven Shpendi0%
Filippo Distefano0%
Edoardo Saporiti0%
Jacopo Seghetti0%
Bogdan Popov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Edoardo Saporiti33%
Marco Curto0%
Luca Magnino0%
Cristian Cauz0%
Gerard Yepes0%
Stiven Shpendi0%
Filippo Distefano0%
Jacopo Seghetti0%
Bogdan Popov0%
Matteo Egan0%
Avellino · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Raffaele Russo67%
Michele Besaggio33%
Brando Moruzzi33%
Armando Izzo0%
Tommaso Cancellotti0%
Andrea Favilli0%
Lorenco Šimić0%
Luca Palmiero0%
Tommaso Biasci0%
Martin Palumbo0%
Tommaso Martinelli0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Michele Besaggio67%
Armando Izzo33%
Lorenco Šimić33%
Brando Moruzzi33%
Tommaso Cancellotti0%
Andrea Favilli0%
Luca Palmiero0%
Tommaso Biasci0%
Raffaele Russo0%
Martin Palumbo0%
Tommaso Martinelli0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrea Favilli33%
Martin Palumbo33%
Armando Izzo0%
Tommaso Cancellotti0%
Lorenco Šimić0%
Luca Palmiero0%
Tommaso Biasci0%
Raffaele Russo0%
Michele Besaggio0%
Tommaso Martinelli0%
Brando Moruzzi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tommaso Biasci33%
Martin Palumbo33%
Armando Izzo0%
Tommaso Cancellotti0%
Andrea Favilli0%
Lorenco Šimić0%
Luca Palmiero0%
Raffaele Russo0%
Michele Besaggio0%
Tommaso Martinelli0%
Brando Moruzzi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (28)
€142m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
PAL (27)
€54m
CRE (30)
€49m
CES (32)
€28m
AVE (27)
€26m
EMP (27)
€20m
SPE (34)
€11m
VE (27)
€11m
ASC (29)
€11m
PES (27)
€8m
BAR (22)
€8m
Empoli's squad is €6m less valuable than Avellino's (€20m vs €26m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
PAL (7)
€23m
CRE (7)
€12m
EMP (9)
€11m
CES (10)
€10m
AVE (10)
€6m
ASC (11)
€5m
PES (10)
€4m
SPE (10)
€3m
VE (7)
€3m
BAR (6)
€2m
Empoli's attack is €5m more valuable than Avellino's (€11m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (8)
€60m
VEN (11)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
CRE (10)
€15m
PAL (7)
€12m
AVE (6)
€9m
VE (11)
€6m
EMP (9)
€6m
CES (9)
€5m
SPE (11)
€4m
BAR (6)
€3m
ASC (6)
€3m
PES (6)
€1m
Empoli's midfield is €3m less valuable than Avellino's (€6m vs €9m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
FRO (14)
€24m
CRE (13)
€22m
PAL (13)
€19m
CES (13)
€12m
AVE (11)
€11m
EMP (9)
€4m
SPE (13)
€4m
PES (11)
€3m
BAR (10)
€3m
ASC (12)
€3m
VE (9)
€2m
Empoli's defence is €8m less valuable than Avellino's (€4m vs €11m).
Italy: Serie B 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
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Parma
Frosinone
Palermo
Venezia
Bari
Cittadella
Perugia
Spezia
Salernitana
Cesena
Cremonese
Brescia
Pescara
Ascoli
Virtus Entella
Ternana