This opponent (Cesena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cesena
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.47
1.38
1.12
1.21
1.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.40
1.30
1.36
1.00
1.44
1.67
vs Weaker (10)
1.10
1.80
1.40
1.40
0.80
2.20
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Empoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.1%
Under 1.5
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.5%
Under 2.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.3%
Under 3.5
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.7%
No
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.0%
1-0
7.5%
3-1
7.0%
3-0
6.3%
2-2
5.4%
1-2
5.1%
Empoli goals ↓
Cesena goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
3.5%
2.4%
0.9%
0.2%
1
7.5%
10%
5.1%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.0%
9.9%
5.4%
2.0%
0.6%
3
6.3%
7.0%
3.8%
1.4%
0.4%
4
3.4%
3.7%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Empoli goals (down), columns = Cesena goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Empoli
2.02
Frosinone
1.71
Parma
1.71
Palermo
1.69
Bari
1.60
Venezia
1.60
Cittadella
1.57
Perugia
1.43
Foggia
1.38
Spezia
1.26
Carpi
1.24
Salernitana
1.21
Cesena
1.19
Cremonese
1.14
Pescara
1.14
Avellino
1.14
Brescia
1.14
Ascoli
1.10
Virtus Entella
1.05
Novara
1.05
Pro Vercelli
0.95
Ternana
0.88
Empoli is 0.83 points better than Cesena in terms of average points per game (2.02 vs 1.19).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Empoli
2.10
Perugia
1.60
Foggia
1.57
Frosinone
1.55
Ternana
1.48
Cittadella
1.45
Bari
1.40
Palermo
1.40
Parma
1.36
Venezia
1.33
Cesena
1.31
Salernitana
1.21
Pescara
1.19
Avellino
1.17
Cremonese
1.14
Pro Vercelli
1.12
Spezia
1.10
Novara
1.00
Brescia
0.98
Virtus Entella
0.98
Ascoli
0.95
Carpi
0.76
Empoli is 0.79 goals better than Cesena in terms of goals scored per game (2.10 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Parma
0.88
Palermo
0.93
Venezia
1.00
Spezia
1.07
Carpi
1.10
Cremonese
1.12
Frosinone
1.12
Bari
1.14
Cittadella
1.14
Empoli
1.17
Brescia
1.24
Novara
1.24
Virtus Entella
1.29
Perugia
1.38
Salernitana
1.38
Ascoli
1.43
Avellino
1.43
Cesena
1.45
Pescara
1.52
Foggia
1.62
Pro Vercelli
1.67
Ternana
1.83
Empoli is 0.29 goals better than Cesena in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.45).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Empoli
For 4.3 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 14.5 · Total 29.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cesena
For 4.2 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 15.2 · Total 29.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Empoli
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.5
10.3
5.0
5.2
4.7
29.6
31.1
28.2
vs Stronger (16)
11.4
9.2
13.5
4.9
5.2
4.5
28.2
30.4
26.1
vs Similar (20)
8.7
8.8
8.5
5.8
6.2
5.5
29.6
30.8
28.5
vs Weaker (14)
10.1
10.9
9.3
3.9
4.0
3.7
31.1
32.4
29.9
% over line
50%
50%
50%
76%
79%
73%
88%
88%
88%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
24%
21%
27%
12%
12%
12%
This opponent (Cesena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cesena
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
8.4
11.0
1.2
1.3
1.1
30.6
29.9
31.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (33)
9.0
8.5
9.8
1.1
1.3
0.8
31.3
30.7
32.2
vs Weaker (17)
11.5
8.0
12.7
1.4
1.1
1.5
28.8
25.0
30.0
% over line
36%
14%
57%
18%
20%
16%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
64%
86%
43%
82%
80%
84%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Empoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Cremonese
11.2
Frosinone
11.2
Virtus Entella
11.1
Venezia
11.0
Brescia
10.9
Cittadella
10.9
Perugia
10.9
Pescara
10.7
Carpi
10.5
Foggia
10.5
Pro Vercelli
10.2
Bari
10.1
Ternana
10.1
Avellino
9.9
Spezia
9.9
Empoli
9.9
Palermo
9.8
Novara
9.7
Cesena
9.7
Parma
9.6
Salernitana
9.4
Ascoli
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Perugia
5.3
Frosinone
5.2
Avellino
5.1
Empoli
5.0
Carpi
4.9
Cremonese
4.9
Spezia
4.9
Pro Vercelli
4.9
Brescia
4.8
Novara
4.8
Palermo
4.7
Parma
4.6
Salernitana
4.5
Bari
4.5
Cittadella
4.4
Pescara
4.3
Cesena
4.2
Ascoli
4.1
Venezia
3.9
Virtus Entella
3.9
Foggia
3.6
Ternana
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Virtus Entella
34.6
Avellino
33.8
Novara
33.2
Frosinone
32.7
Perugia
32.6
Cremonese
32.3
Carpi
32.0
Brescia
31.7
Cittadella
31.6
Salernitana
31.0
Parma
30.6
Cesena
30.6
Ascoli
30.1
Palermo
29.6
Empoli
29.6
Pescara
29.6
Spezia
29.5
Ternana
29.4
Pro Vercelli
29.1
Bari
29.0
Foggia
26.1
Venezia
25.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
59.1%
Under 9.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
60.2%
Under 3.5
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
96.7%
Under 21.5
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Empoli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.71
0.79
0.62
0.81
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.33
0.40
0.40
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.83
1.00
0.83
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.80
0.80
0.40
1.00
1.20
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Cesena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cesena
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.62
0.31
0.71
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.50
0.45
0.09
0.78
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.90
1.00
0.80
0.60
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Empoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Empoli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Empoli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Empoli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cesena over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cesena over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cesena over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Empoli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.93
0.86
0.64
0.62
1.19
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (12)
0.83
1.08
0.50
0.83
1.17
1.33
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
0.70
1.20
0.40
0.20
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Cesena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cesena
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.75
0.81
0.50
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.80
0.91
0.91
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (10)
0.30
0.90
0.40
0.60
0.20
1.20
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Empoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Empoli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Empoli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Empoli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cesena over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cesena over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cesena over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Empoli · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Edoardo Saporiti67%
Stiven Shpendi33%
Marco Curto0%
Luca Magnino0%
Cristian Cauz0%
Gerard Yepes0%
Filippo Distefano0%
Jacopo Seghetti0%
Bogdan Popov0%
Matteo Egan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gerard Yepes67%
Marco Curto33%
Luca Magnino33%
Cristian Cauz0%
Stiven Shpendi0%
Filippo Distefano0%
Edoardo Saporiti0%
Jacopo Seghetti0%
Bogdan Popov0%
Matteo Egan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cristian Cauz33%
Matteo Egan33%
Marco Curto0%
Luca Magnino0%
Gerard Yepes0%
Stiven Shpendi0%
Filippo Distefano0%
Edoardo Saporiti0%
Jacopo Seghetti0%
Bogdan Popov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Edoardo Saporiti33%
Marco Curto0%
Luca Magnino0%
Cristian Cauz0%
Gerard Yepes0%
Stiven Shpendi0%
Filippo Distefano0%
Jacopo Seghetti0%
Bogdan Popov0%
Matteo Egan0%
Cesena · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cristian Shpendi67%
Antonio Fiori33%
Dimitri Bisoli0%
Alessandro Siano0%
Andrea Ciofi0%
Matteo Francesconi0%
Riccardo Pagano0%
Mihajlo Ilić0%
Matteo Guidi0%
Alessandro Debenedetti0%
Xavello Druiventak0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Cristian Shpendi67%
Matteo Guidi33%
Dimitri Bisoli0%
Alessandro Siano0%
Andrea Ciofi0%
Matteo Francesconi0%
Riccardo Pagano0%
Mihajlo Ilić0%
Antonio Fiori0%
Alessandro Debenedetti0%
Xavello Druiventak0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Matteo Guidi33%
Xavello Druiventak33%
Dimitri Bisoli0%
Alessandro Siano0%
Andrea Ciofi0%
Matteo Francesconi0%
Cristian Shpendi0%
Riccardo Pagano0%
Mihajlo Ilić0%
Antonio Fiori0%
Alessandro Debenedetti0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dimitri Bisoli0%
Alessandro Siano0%
Andrea Ciofi0%
Matteo Francesconi0%
Cristian Shpendi0%
Riccardo Pagano0%
Mihajlo Ilić0%
Antonio Fiori0%
Matteo Guidi0%
Alessandro Debenedetti0%
Xavello Druiventak0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (28)
€142m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
PAL (27)
€54m
CRE (30)
€49m
CES (32)
€28m
AVE (27)
€26m
EMP (27)
€20m
SPE (34)
€11m
VE (27)
€11m
ASC (29)
€11m
PES (27)
€8m
BAR (22)
€8m
Empoli's squad is €8m less valuable than Cesena's (€20m vs €28m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
PAL (7)
€23m
CRE (7)
€12m
EMP (9)
€11m
CES (10)
€10m
AVE (10)
€6m
ASC (11)
€5m
PES (10)
€4m
SPE (10)
€3m
VE (7)
€3m
BAR (6)
€2m
Empoli and Cesena have a similar attack value (both €11m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (8)
€60m
VEN (11)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
CRE (10)
€15m
PAL (7)
€12m
AVE (6)
€9m
VE (11)
€6m
EMP (9)
€6m
CES (9)
€5m
SPE (11)
€4m
BAR (6)
€3m
ASC (6)
€3m
PES (6)
€1m
Empoli and Cesena have a similar midfield value (both €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
FRO (14)
€24m
CRE (13)
€22m
PAL (13)
€19m
CES (13)
€12m
AVE (11)
€11m
EMP (9)
€4m
SPE (13)
€4m
PES (11)
€3m
BAR (10)
€3m
ASC (12)
€3m
VE (9)
€2m
Empoli's defence is €8m less valuable than Cesena's (€4m vs €12m).
Italy: Serie B 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
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Parma
Frosinone
Palermo
Venezia
Bari
Cittadella
Perugia
Spezia
Salernitana
Cremonese
Avellino
Brescia
Pescara
Ascoli
Virtus Entella
Ternana