This opponent (Spezia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spezia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.03
1.29
0.79
0.56
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.91
1.00
0.80
0.17
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.11
1.11
1.44
0.78
0.80
1.40
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Empoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.6%
Under 1.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.7%
Under 2.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.5%
Under 3.5
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.0%
No
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.6%
2-0
12.7%
1-1 ✓
11.9%
0-0
9.6%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
7.3%
3-1
5.4%
0-1
5.2%
Empoli goals ↓
Spezia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.6%
5.2%
2.3%
0.6%
0.1%
1
14%
12%
4.0%
1.0%
0.2%
2
13%
9.4%
3.4%
0.8%
0.2%
3
7.3%
5.4%
2.0%
0.5%
0.1%
4
3.2%
2.3%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Empoli goals (down), columns = Spezia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Empoli
2.02
Frosinone
1.71
Parma
1.71
Palermo
1.69
Bari
1.60
Venezia
1.60
Cittadella
1.57
Perugia
1.43
Foggia
1.38
Spezia
1.26
Carpi
1.24
Salernitana
1.21
Cesena
1.19
Cremonese
1.14
Pescara
1.14
Avellino
1.14
Brescia
1.14
Ascoli
1.10
Virtus Entella
1.05
Novara
1.05
Pro Vercelli
0.95
Ternana
0.88
Empoli is 0.76 points better than Spezia in terms of average points per game (2.02 vs 1.26).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Empoli
2.10
Perugia
1.60
Foggia
1.57
Frosinone
1.55
Ternana
1.48
Cittadella
1.45
Bari
1.40
Palermo
1.40
Parma
1.36
Venezia
1.33
Cesena
1.31
Salernitana
1.21
Pescara
1.19
Avellino
1.17
Cremonese
1.14
Pro Vercelli
1.12
Spezia
1.10
Novara
1.00
Brescia
0.98
Virtus Entella
0.98
Ascoli
0.95
Carpi
0.76
Empoli is 1.00 goals better than Spezia in terms of goals scored per game (2.10 vs 1.10).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Parma
0.88
Palermo
0.93
Venezia
1.00
Spezia
1.07
Carpi
1.10
Cremonese
1.12
Frosinone
1.12
Bari
1.14
Cittadella
1.14
Empoli
1.17
Brescia
1.24
Novara
1.24
Virtus Entella
1.29
Perugia
1.38
Salernitana
1.38
Ascoli
1.43
Avellino
1.43
Cesena
1.45
Pescara
1.52
Foggia
1.62
Pro Vercelli
1.67
Ternana
1.83
Empoli is 0.10 goals worse than Spezia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.07).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Empoli
For 4.4 · Against 6.0 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.1 · Against 15.2 · Total 30.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spezia
For 6.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.9 · Against 14.3 · Total 30.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Empoli
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.2
10.5
5.1
5.4
4.8
30.4
32.5
28.5
vs Stronger (16)
11.4
9.2
13.5
4.9
5.2
4.5
28.2
30.4
26.1
vs Similar (21)
8.2
7.8
8.6
6.0
6.7
5.6
31.3
34.3
29.0
vs Weaker (13)
10.5
10.9
10.2
3.8
4.0
3.5
31.5
32.4
30.5
% over line
48%
46%
50%
76%
79%
73%
90%
92%
88%
% under line
52%
54%
50%
24%
21%
27%
10%
8%
12%
This opponent (Spezia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spezia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.5
9.0
1.2
1.1
1.2
30.8
32.2
29.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
11.0
12.0
10.7
1.4
1.1
1.7
27.8
27.0
28.0
vs Weaker (32)
9.1
10.2
7.3
1.0
1.1
0.9
32.2
33.2
30.7
% over line
67%
67%
67%
18%
16%
20%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
33%
33%
33%
82%
84%
80%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Empoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Brescia
11.3
Cittadella
11.3
Frosinone
11.2
Perugia
11.2
Venezia
11.2
Cremonese
11.1
Virtus Entella
10.9
Pro Vercelli
10.7
Pescara
10.7
Carpi
10.6
Bari
10.2
Foggia
10.2
Parma
9.9
Cesena
9.8
Empoli
9.8
Palermo
9.8
Spezia
9.8
Salernitana
9.5
Ternana
9.5
Avellino
9.2
Novara
9.1
Ascoli
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Avellino
5.2
Frosinone
5.2
Perugia
5.1
Empoli
5.1
Cremonese
5.0
Carpi
4.9
Brescia
4.9
Novara
4.9
Pro Vercelli
4.8
Spezia
4.8
Palermo
4.7
Parma
4.7
Cittadella
4.5
Bari
4.5
Pescara
4.3
Salernitana
4.2
Ascoli
4.2
Cesena
3.9
Virtus Entella
3.8
Venezia
3.7
Foggia
3.7
Ternana
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Virtus Entella
34.9
Avellino
33.9
Novara
33.5
Frosinone
32.5
Cittadella
32.2
Cremonese
32.1
Carpi
31.8
Perugia
31.6
Salernitana
31.5
Brescia
31.1
Parma
31.0
Cesena
31.0
Spezia
30.8
Empoli
30.4
Ascoli
30.2
Palermo
29.7
Pescara
29.6
Pro Vercelli
29.3
Ternana
29.3
Bari
28.8
Foggia
26.0
Venezia
24.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
47.9%
Under 9.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
65.2%
Under 3.5
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
96.6%
Under 21.5
3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Empoli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.71
0.79
0.62
0.81
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.33
0.40
0.40
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.83
1.00
0.83
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.80
0.80
0.40
1.00
1.20
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Spezia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spezia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.47
0.71
0.36
0.31
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.27
0.36
0.60
0.40
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (19)
0.63
0.53
0.78
0.33
0.50
0.70
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Empoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Empoli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Empoli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Empoli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Empoli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.97
0.86
0.57
0.62
1.31
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (12)
0.83
1.00
0.50
0.67
1.17
1.33
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
0.90
1.20
0.40
0.20
1.40
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Spezia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spezia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.57
0.43
0.25
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.27
0.55
0.40
0.40
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (19)
0.47
0.58
0.67
0.44
0.30
0.70
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Empoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Empoli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Empoli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Empoli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 25.5 fouls
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Empoli · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Edoardo Saporiti67%
Stiven Shpendi33%
Marco Curto0%
Luca Magnino0%
Cristian Cauz0%
Gerard Yepes0%
Filippo Distefano0%
Jacopo Seghetti0%
Bogdan Popov0%
Matteo Egan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gerard Yepes67%
Marco Curto33%
Luca Magnino33%
Cristian Cauz0%
Stiven Shpendi0%
Filippo Distefano0%
Edoardo Saporiti0%
Jacopo Seghetti0%
Bogdan Popov0%
Matteo Egan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cristian Cauz33%
Matteo Egan33%
Marco Curto0%
Luca Magnino0%
Gerard Yepes0%
Stiven Shpendi0%
Filippo Distefano0%
Edoardo Saporiti0%
Jacopo Seghetti0%
Bogdan Popov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Edoardo Saporiti33%
Marco Curto0%
Luca Magnino0%
Cristian Cauz0%
Gerard Yepes0%
Stiven Shpendi0%
Filippo Distefano0%
Jacopo Seghetti0%
Bogdan Popov0%
Matteo Egan0%
Spezia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gabriele Artistico36%
Gianluca Lapadula32%
Mattia Valoti25%
Giuseppe Aurelio20%
Giuseppe Di Serio11%
Vanja Vlahović9%
Giovanni Bonfanti8%
Salvatore Esposito8%
Filippo Bandinelli6%
Pietro Beruatto6%
Rachid Kouda6%
Edoardo Soleri5%
Leonardo Sernicola5%
Luca Vignali3%
Ádám Nagy0%
Antonio Candela0%
Francesco Cassata0%
Andrea Cistana0%
Aleš Matějů0%
Petko Hristov0%
Boris Radunović0%
Przemysław Wiśniewski0%
Daniele Verde0%
Alessandro Bellemo0%
Mouhamadou Sarr0%
Marco Ruggero0%
Emanuele Adamo0%
Laurs Skjellerup0%
Alessandro Romano0%
Pietro Candelari0%
Diego Mascardi0%
Christian Comotto0%
Fellipe Jack0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Francesco Cassata41%
Salvatore Esposito38%
Filippo Bandinelli38%
Fellipe Jack38%
Alessandro Bellemo27%
Giovanni Bonfanti25%
Aleš Matějů23%
Marco Ruggero22%
Alessandro Romano21%
Mattia Valoti19%
Emanuele Adamo19%
Petko Hristov17%
Luca Vignali17%
Laurs Skjellerup17%
Ádám Nagy15%
Giuseppe Di Serio15%
Pietro Beruatto15%
Pietro Candelari14%
Rachid Kouda12%
Andrea Cistana11%
Leonardo Sernicola10%
Przemysław Wiśniewski10%
Christian Comotto10%
Gabriele Artistico9%
Giuseppe Aurelio6%
Antonio Candela5%
Gianluca Lapadula5%
Edoardo Soleri5%
Boris Radunović0%
Daniele Verde0%
Mouhamadou Sarr0%
Vanja Vlahović0%
Diego Mascardi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daniele Verde17%
Giovanni Bonfanti17%
Salvatore Esposito15%
Mattia Valoti12%
Pietro Beruatto12%
Gianluca Lapadula11%
Leonardo Sernicola10%
Alessandro Bellemo9%
Vanja Vlahović9%
Giuseppe Aurelio9%
Ádám Nagy7%
Rachid Kouda6%
Antonio Candela5%
Alessandro Romano5%
Francesco Cassata5%
Giuseppe Di Serio4%
Luca Vignali3%
Aleš Matějů3%
Christian Comotto3%
Gabriele Artistico3%
Filippo Bandinelli0%
Andrea Cistana0%
Petko Hristov0%
Boris Radunović0%
Przemysław Wiśniewski0%
Edoardo Soleri0%
Mouhamadou Sarr0%
Marco Ruggero0%
Emanuele Adamo0%
Laurs Skjellerup0%
Pietro Candelari0%
Diego Mascardi0%
Fellipe Jack0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gabriele Artistico24%
Giovanni Bonfanti17%
Mattia Valoti12%
Gianluca Lapadula11%
Edoardo Soleri11%
Salvatore Esposito8%
Vanja Vlahović4%
Aleš Matějů3%
Giuseppe Aurelio3%
Ádám Nagy0%
Leonardo Sernicola0%
Filippo Bandinelli0%
Antonio Candela0%
Luca Vignali0%
Francesco Cassata0%
Andrea Cistana0%
Petko Hristov0%
Boris Radunović0%
Przemysław Wiśniewski0%
Daniele Verde0%
Alessandro Bellemo0%
Pietro Beruatto0%
Mouhamadou Sarr0%
Giuseppe Di Serio0%
Marco Ruggero0%
Emanuele Adamo0%
Laurs Skjellerup0%
Rachid Kouda0%
Alessandro Romano0%
Pietro Candelari0%
Diego Mascardi0%
Christian Comotto0%
Fellipe Jack0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (28)
€142m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
PAL (27)
€54m
CRE (30)
€49m
CES (32)
€28m
AVE (27)
€26m
EMP (27)
€20m
SPE (34)
€11m
VE (27)
€11m
ASC (29)
€11m
PES (27)
€8m
BAR (22)
€8m
Empoli's squad is €9m more valuable than Spezia's (€20m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
PAL (7)
€23m
CRE (7)
€12m
EMP (9)
€11m
CES (10)
€10m
AVE (10)
€6m
ASC (11)
€5m
PES (10)
€4m
SPE (10)
€3m
VE (7)
€3m
BAR (6)
€2m
Empoli's attack is €8m more valuable than Spezia's (€11m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (8)
€60m
VEN (11)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
CRE (10)
€15m
PAL (7)
€12m
AVE (6)
€9m
VE (11)
€6m
EMP (9)
€6m
CES (9)
€5m
SPE (11)
€4m
BAR (6)
€3m
ASC (6)
€3m
PES (6)
€1m
Empoli's midfield is €1m more valuable than Spezia's (€6m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
FRO (14)
€24m
CRE (13)
€22m
PAL (13)
€19m
CES (13)
€12m
AVE (11)
€11m
EMP (9)
€4m
SPE (13)
€4m
PES (11)
€3m
BAR (10)
€3m
ASC (12)
€3m
VE (9)
€2m
Empoli and Spezia have a similar defence value (both €4m).
Italy: Serie B 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Parma
Frosinone
Palermo
Venezia
Bari
Cittadella
Perugia
Salernitana
Cesena
Cremonese
Avellino
Brescia
Pescara
Ascoli
Virtus Entella
Ternana