Defensive solidity dominates the forecast, with Enisey’s home form showing only 0.4 goals conceded per match and Arsenal Tula’s away form leaking 1.6. The model predicts a tight 2-goal encounter, most likely ending 1-0 for Enisey, a 15.3 % probability. Home win is the favourite, with a 53 % chance, draw 29 % and away win 18 %. The expected total is 2.2 goals, and the most probable total is 2, at 28 %. Enisey averages 1.2 goals scored at home against similar opponents, while Arsenal Tula averages 1.13 away, yet they concede more. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.3 %), Under 6.5 (99.3 %), Under 5.5 (97.6 %), Away under 2.5 goals (96.3 %), Home +2 handicap (94.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.0 %) and Under 4.5 (93.0 %). All selections carry their own probabilities, with no overlap to the match-result odds.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Enisey win
52.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula win
17.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Enisey
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.03
1.12
0.38
1.57
1.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.33
1.03
1.12
0.38
1.57
1.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Tula
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.37
1.00
1.19
1.07
1.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.07
1.39
1.07
1.21
1.07
1.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
62.3%
Under 1.5
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
34.1%
Under 2.5
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
15.5%
Under 3.5
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
38.4%
No
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
16.3%
0-0
13.9%
1-1
13.2%
2-0
12.0%
2-1
8.3%
0-1
7.5%
3-0
5.5%
1-2
4.1%
Enisey goals ↓
Arsenal Tula goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
7.5%
3.0%
0.7%
0.1%
1
16%
13%
4.1%
0.9%
0.2%
2
12%
8.3%
2.8%
0.7%
0.1%
3
5.5%
3.8%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
4
1.9%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Enisey goals (down), columns = Arsenal Tula goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Sochi
2.57
Nizhny Novgorod
2.29
Veles
2.14
Ural
2.00
FC UFA
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.67
Spartak Kostroma
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.50
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Enisey
1.17
FK Neftekhimik
1.12
Arsenal Tula
1.12
Leningradets
1.00
Tekstilshchik
0.71
KAMAZ
0.71
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Ska-khabarovsk
0.43
Enisey is 0.04 points better than Arsenal Tula in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nizhny Novgorod
3.00
FC Sochi
2.29
Ural
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.83
Veles
1.57
Enisey
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.33
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
FC UFA
1.17
Chelyabinsk
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
Arsenal Tula
0.88
Ska-khabarovsk
0.71
Leningradets
0.67
FK Neftekhimik
0.62
Tekstilshchik
0.29
Enisey is 0.62 goals better than Arsenal Tula in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 0.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ural
0.50
Torpedo Moskva
0.67
Leningradets
0.83
Tekstilshchik
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
FC Sochi
1.00
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.17
Enisey
1.33
Nizhny Novgorod
1.43
Veles
1.43
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.50
FK Neftekhimik
1.50
KAMAZ
1.57
Arsenal Tula
1.62
Ska-khabarovsk
2.00
Chelyabinsk
2.17
Enisey is 0.29 goals better than Arsenal Tula in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.62).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Sochi
54%
FK Neftekhimik
54%
Veles
54%
Volga Ulyanovsk
52%
Arsenal Tula
52%
Leningradets
50%
Nizhny Novgorod
50%
Chelyabinsk
50%
Tekstilshchik
49%
Spartak Kostroma
49%
Ska-khabarovsk
46%
FC UFA
46%
KAMAZ
46%
Ural
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Enisey
For 2.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 6.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 0.8 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 18.0 · Total 32.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arsenal Tula
For 4.3 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Enisey
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
6.0
6.0
-
1.8
1.7
1.9
32.0
32.0
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
4.0
-
4.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (48)
6.0
6.0
-
1.7
1.7
1.7
32.0
32.0
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
24%
24%
24%
100%
100%
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
76%
76%
76%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Tula
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.5
11.0
2.2
2.2
2.3
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
1.5
1.5
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (48)
9.3
8.5
11.0
2.3
2.3
2.3
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
67%
50%
100%
26%
28%
24%
-
-
-
% under line
33%
50%
0%
74%
72%
76%
-
-
-
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
KAMAZ
15.0
Rotor Volgograd
11.0
Chelyabinsk
11.0
Spartak Kostroma
10.5
Nizhny Novgorod
10.5
Arsenal Tula
9.3
FC Sochi
9.2
Tekstilshchik
9.0
Leningradets
8.9
Veles
8.8
FK Neftekhimik
8.7
FC UFA
8.7
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Ural
8.4
Ska-khabarovsk
7.2
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
5.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tekstilshchik
5.5
Nizhny Novgorod
4.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
KAMAZ
4.5
FC Sochi
4.4
Veles
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Arsenal Tula
3.9
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Leningradets
3.3
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Nizhny Novgorod
28.6
Rotor Volgograd
28.5
FC Sochi
27.1
FK Neftekhimik
27.0
FC UFA
27.0
Ural
26.8
Enisey
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
42.3%
Under 9.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
56.5%
Under 3.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
85.0%
Under 21.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Enisey or Draw
82.6%
Avg Implied -
52%
30%
17%
covers Enisey + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Enisey or Arsenal Tula
69.7%
Avg Implied -
52%
30%
17%
covers Enisey + Arsenal Tula
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Arsenal Tula
47.7%
Avg Implied -
52%
30%
17%
covers Draw + Arsenal Tula
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Enisey over/under 0.5
Over
74.8%
Under
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 1.5
Over
40.0%
Under
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 2.5
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 3.5
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 0.5
Over
49.7%
Under
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 1.5
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 2.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 3.5
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Enisey, so a minus line means Enisey give that many goals of a start and Arsenal Tula receive them. At -1, Enisey must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Enisey win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Enisey)
Enisey -2
10.0%
Draw -2
16.3%
Arsenal Tula +2
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Enisey)
Enisey -1
26.4%
Draw -1
26.0%
Arsenal Tula +1
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Enisey)
Enisey +1
82.6%
Draw +1
12.3%
Arsenal Tula -1
5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Enisey)
Enisey +2
94.9%
Draw +2
4.1%
Arsenal Tula -2
1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Enisey
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.33
0.56
0.12
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.53
0.33
0.56
0.12
0.50
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Tula
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.50
0.75
0.43
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.46
0.75
0.50
0.71
0.43
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Enisey over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Enisey
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
0.56
0.25
1.07
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.80
0.70
0.56
0.25
1.07
1.21
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Tula
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.50
0.44
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.61
0.64
0.57
0.50
0.64
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Enisey over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (28)
€18m
FS (21)
€15m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Enisey's squad is €3m less valuable than Arsenal Tula's (€6m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
Enisey and Arsenal Tula have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Enisey and Arsenal Tula have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (11)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
Enisey's defence is €1m less valuable than Arsenal Tula's (€2m vs €3m).
Russia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →