Enisey are favoured to win, with a 54% chance of triumph, a 29% chance of a draw and only 18% for FC UFA. The match is expected to see 2.3 goals on average, most likely a single-goal total of 2. The single most probable scoreline is 1-0, with a 14.4% probability. Enisey, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, have averaged 2.0 goals scored and 0.91 conceded, while FC UFA, away against a similar side, average 0.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 89.3%, Under 3.5 goals at 80.6%, Under 11.5 corners at 80.1%, Under 4.5 cards at 77.8%, and Under 10.5 corners at 70.4%. These picks are presented with their exact probabilities and no additional commentary. The home team’s recent form shows a draw in their last match, while the visitors are on a two-game winning streak. The overall picture points to a tight, low-scoring affair favouring Enisey.
Results analysis
The updated form shows Enisey coming off a draw, while FC UFA arrives on a two-game winning run. The model predicted a home win with a 54% probability, and this call proved correct as Enisey secured a 1-0 victory. The most likely scoreline was 1-0, with a 28% chance, and the final score matched that expectation. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 5.5 cards, with an 89.3% probability, hit; Under 3.5, at 80.6%, hit; and Under 4.5 cards, at 77.8%, also hit. All predictions were settled, and the favoured result landed as forecast.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Enisey win✓ Hit
53.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC UFA win✗ Miss
17.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Enisey
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.00
1.92
0.92
0.88
1.06
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.32
1.00
2.00
0.91
0.88
1.06
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (FC UFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC UFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.37
1.29
1.41
0.62
1.31
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
1.44
0.83
1.17
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.00
1.33
1.55
1.55
0.40
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
67.3%
Under 1.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.5%
Under 2.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.4%
Under 3.5
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.6%
No
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0 ✓
14.4%
1-1
13.1%
2-0
11.7%
0-0
11.6%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
6.7%
3-0
5.9%
1-2
4.5%
Enisey goals ↓
FC UFA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
6.7%
3.0%
0.8%
0.1%
1
14%
13%
4.5%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
8.9%
3.4%
0.9%
0.2%
3
5.9%
4.5%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
4
2.2%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Enisey goals (down), columns = FC UFA goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Baltika
2.03
Torpedo Moskva
1.91
Chernomorets
1.88
Ural
1.74
FC Sochi
1.68
Ska-khabarovsk
1.56
Rodina Moskva
1.47
Enisey
1.44
Rotor Volgograd
1.38
Arsenal Tula
1.21
FK Neftekhimik
1.12
Chayka
1.12
KAMAZ
1.12
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.03
FC UFA
1.03
FK Sokol Saratov
0.94
Tyumen
0.79
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.79
Enisey is 0.41 points better than FC UFA in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Sochi
1.62
Torpedo Moskva
1.50
Chernomorets
1.50
Ural
1.47
Baltika
1.47
Ska-khabarovsk
1.29
Rodina Moskva
1.21
Enisey
1.06
Rotor Volgograd
0.94
FC UFA
0.94
FK Neftekhimik
0.91
Chayka
0.91
KAMAZ
0.91
Tyumen
0.88
Arsenal Tula
0.74
FK Sokol Saratov
0.74
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.71
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.71
Enisey is 0.12 goals better than FC UFA in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Baltika
0.53
Torpedo Moskva
0.74
Rotor Volgograd
0.76
Arsenal Tula
0.88
Rodina Moskva
0.91
Chernomorets
1.00
FC Sochi
1.00
KAMAZ
1.03
FK Neftekhimik
1.09
Ural
1.12
Enisey
1.15
Ska-khabarovsk
1.21
FK Sokol Saratov
1.21
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.24
Chayka
1.26
FC UFA
1.41
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.47
Tyumen
1.50
Enisey is 0.26 goals better than FC UFA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
51%
Enisey
49%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Enisey
For 2.5 · Against 4.0 · Total 6.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC UFA
For 5.1 · Against 3.9 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Enisey
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.8
10.0
2.6
2.4
2.8
32.0
-
32.0
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
9.2
8.8
10.0
2.7
2.6
2.7
32.0
-
32.0
vs Weaker (2)
10.0
-
10.0
3.0
1.0
5.0
-
-
-
% over line
53%
30%
86%
38%
30%
44%
100%
-
100%
% under line
47%
70%
14%
62%
70%
56%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (FC UFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC UFA
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
9.0
8.3
1.9
2.2
1.6
-
-
-
vs Stronger (15)
10.5
12.7
8.3
2.7
2.3
3.3
-
-
-
vs Similar (35)
7.6
7.2
8.3
1.6
2.2
1.1
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
47%
44%
50%
28%
31%
25%
-
-
-
% under line
53%
56%
50%
72%
69%
75%
-
-
-
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Shinnik Yaroslavl
11.1
Arsenal Tula
10.7
Ural
10.5
Baltika
10.2
FK Neftekhimik
10.0
Chernomorets
9.9
Enisey
9.7
FC Sochi
9.3
FK Sokol Saratov
9.1
KAMAZ
8.8
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8.8
Rodina Moskva
8.8
FC UFA
8.7
Ska-khabarovsk
8.4
Tyumen
8.3
Torpedo Moskva
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
KAMAZ
5.3
FC UFA
5.1
Rodina Moskva
4.4
Torpedo Moskva
4.0
Enisey
4.0
Ural
3.9
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
3.7
FK Neftekhimik
3.7
Baltika
3.6
FC Sochi
3.6
Tyumen
3.6
Chernomorets
3.5
Ska-khabarovsk
3.5
Chayka
3.3
Arsenal Tula
3.1
Rotor Volgograd
3.1
FK Sokol Saratov
3.0
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rodina Moskva
30.5
Enisey
28.5
Arsenal Tula
23.5
Ural
23.2
Torpedo Moskva
22.5
Baltika
22.3
FC Sochi
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
41.5%
Under 9.5
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.0%
Under 3.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Enisey
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.47
0.77
0.46
0.59
0.47
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.46
0.82
0.45
0.59
0.47
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC UFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC UFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.53
0.76
0.31
0.38
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.44
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.33
0.67
0.45
1.00
0.20
0.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Enisey over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC UFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC UFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC UFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Enisey
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
1.15
0.46
0.29
0.59
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.64
0.54
1.18
0.45
0.29
0.59
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC UFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC UFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.76
0.65
0.31
0.92
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.00
0.17
0.83
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.67
1.09
0.55
0.20
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Enisey over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC UFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC UFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC UFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (31)
€30m
RM (26)
€17m
FS (21)
€15m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Enisey and FC UFA have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (10)
€10m
RM (11)
€7m
TM (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
Enisey and FC UFA have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (6)
€6m
RM (4)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Enisey and FC UFA have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (15)
€15m
FS (11)
€9m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
AT (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
Enisey and FC UFA have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Russia: First League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →