PythiaFootballBETA
Enosis faces Ethnikos Achna in a matchup where the away team is heavily favored to win. This storyline is driven by Ethnikos Achna's recent form, having come off a defeat, whereas Enosis is coming off a draw. The model predicts an away win with a 43% probability, while the home side has a 28% chance of winning and a 30% chance of a draw.
The expected total number of goals in this match is 2.4, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The single most likely score is a 1-1 draw, with a 14.1% probability.
Enosis has struggled at home, scoring an average of 0.23 goals and conceding 2.08 goals against stronger opponents. In contrast, Ethnikos Achna has performed well away from home, scoring 2 goals and conceding none against weaker opponents.
The model's selections include Over 21.5 fouls (87.8%), Under 3.5 (77.2%), Over 3.5 cards (71.6%), and Over 1.5 (71.2%). Enosis has a 28% chance of winning, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 42% chance of losing.
The away team, Ethnikos Achna, secured a 1-3 win, extending their run of losses. The model's call, an away win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 43%. The model's selection, an away win, was the favourite, despite only being given a 43% chance of success.
In terms of the model's other selections, the Over 1.5 goal line hit, with a probability of 71.2%, but the Under 3.5 goal line missed, with a probability of 77.2%.
Enosis| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.33 | 2.53 | 0.27 | 2.00 | 0.40 | 3.07 |
| vs Stronger (28) | 0.32 | 2.61 | 0.23 | 2.08 | 0.40 | 3.07 |
| vs Similar (2) | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.50 | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 0% (-31pp vs league) | |||||
Ethnikos Achna| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 1.67 | 1.29 | 1.07 | 0.75 | 2.19 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.75 | 2.33 | 1.17 | 1.67 | 0.33 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.88 | 1.31 | 0.86 | 0.57 | 0.89 | 1.89 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 3.50 | 0.50 | 5.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-17pp vs league) | |||||
| Ethnikos Achna goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 10% | 11% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 8.1% | 14% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| 2 | 5.0% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
EnosisEthnikos AchnaEnosis| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.6 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 27.4 | 27.1 | 27.6 |
| vs Stronger (45) | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 27.0 | 26.3 | 27.6 |
| vs Similar (5) | 8.0 | 8.0 | - | 1.4 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 32.0 | 32.0 | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 43% | 29% | 57% | 14% | 12% | 15% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| % under line | 57% | 71% | 43% | 86% | 88% | 85% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Ethnikos Achna| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.5 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 30.0 | 33.2 | 27.7 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 11.0 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 22.7 | 25.0 | 21.5 |
| vs Similar (27) | 7.7 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 32.7 | 34.7 | 31.2 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 7.5 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 31.5 | 37.0 | 26.0 |
| % over line | 33% | 20% | 43% | 18% | 20% | 16% | 83% | 100% | 71% |
| % under line | 67% | 80% | 57% | 82% | 80% | 84% | 17% | 0% | 29% |
Enosis| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.17 | 0.93 | 0.13 | 0.80 | 0.20 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (28) | 0.18 | 0.96 | 0.15 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 1.07 |
| vs Similar (2) | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
Ethnikos Achna| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.57 | 0.71 | 0.43 | 0.25 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.42 | 0.75 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.17 | 0.83 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.31 | 0.44 | 0.29 | 0.14 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 2.00 | 0.50 | 4.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
Enosis| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.17 | 1.60 | 0.13 | 1.20 | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (28) | 0.14 | 1.64 | 0.08 | 1.23 | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (2) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-14pp vs league) | |||||
Ethnikos Achna| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 1.10 | 0.57 | 0.64 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.33 | 1.58 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.17 | 2.17 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.56 | 0.88 | 0.57 | 0.43 | 0.56 | 1.22 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+3pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 93.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 86.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 2.5 cards | 86.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 81.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 77.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 75.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 10.5 corners | 72.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 71.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 71.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 25/10/25 | A | 5-1 | |
| 11/05/25 | H | 4-2 | |
| 02/02/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 26/10/24 | H | 1-1 |
Enosis| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 17/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 16/03/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 08/03/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 20/02/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 14/02/26 | A | 3-0 |
Ethnikos Achna| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 16/03/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 15/02/26 | H | 3-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Omonia Nicosia | 36 | 87 | 75% | 2.4 | 88 | 24 | +64 | 3.1 | 89% | 56% | 33% | 7.9 | 27% | 4.7 | 73% | 25.8 | 82% | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 51% |
| 2 |  AEK Larnaca | 36 | 69 | 56% | 1.9 | 62 | 33 | +29 | 2.6 | 78% | 42% | 22% | 9.7 | 55% | 5.2 | 73% | 25.4 | 64% | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 49% |
| 3 |  Apollon Limassol | 36 | 67 | 56% | 1.9 | 52 | 41 | +11 | 2.6 | 72% | 47% | 25% | 8.9 | 31% | 5.1 | 69% | 24.7 | 62% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 53% |
| 4 |  Pafos | 36 | 62 | 50% | 1.7 | 66 | 38 | +28 | 2.9 | 86% | 50% | 28% | 9.5 | 47% | 4.3 | 59% | 25.0 | 71% | 28 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 5 |  Apoel Nicosia | 36 | 52 | 42% | 1.4 | 53 | 45 | +8 | 2.7 | 83% | 50% | 25% | 10.7 | 68% | 5.0 | 73% | 26.2 | 82% | 15 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 54% |
| 6 |  Aris | 36 | 51 | 39% | 1.4 | 61 | 45 | +16 | 2.9 | 83% | 58% | 33% | 10.1 | 45% | 5.2 | 73% | 25.1 | 82% | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 7 |  Anorthosis | 33 | 45 | 33% | 1.4 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 2.3 | 67% | 30% | 21% | 8.7 | 40% | 4.9 | 80% | 30.1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 8 |  AEL | 33 | 44 | 39% | 1.3 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 2.6 | 79% | 55% | 24% | 7.0 | 33% | 4.7 | 67% | 30.6 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 9 |  Omonia Aradippou | 33 | 42 | 36% | 1.3 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 2.2 | 64% | 39% | 18% | 7.3 | 33% | 4.7 | 67% | 30.9 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 43% |
| 10 |  Krasava Ypsonas | 33 | 40 | 33% | 1.2 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 2.4 | 64% | 42% | 21% | 9.9 | 44% | 3.9 | 56% | 24.3 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 11 |  Olympiakos | 33 | 40 | 30% | 1.2 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 2.3 | 70% | 42% | 24% | 6.8 | 12% | 3.8 | 38% | 29.4 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 12 |  Akritas | 33 | 35 | 30% | 1.1 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 2.7 | 82% | 55% | 33% | 9.4 | 50% | 5.2 | 92% | 25.2 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 44% |
| 13 | Ethnikos Achna | 33 | 33 | 30% | 1.0 | 34 | 53 | -19 | 2.6 | 67% | 55% | 30% | 8.9 | 44% | 4.9 | 89% | 28.8 | 78% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 14 | Enosis | 33 | 5 | 3% | 0.2 | 11 | 80 | -69 | 2.8 | 82% | 55% | 27% | 9.7 | 56% | 4.3 | 44% | 26.3 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 41% |