This opponent (Dynamo Dresden) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dynamo Dresden
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.53
1.33
1.20
0.87
1.87
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.17
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
1.09
1.61
1.55
1.27
0.67
1.92
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
2.00
-
-
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.8%
Under 1.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.6%
@ 1.94+3.7%
Under 2.5
47.4%
@ 1.86-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.4%
Under 3.5
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.4%
No
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
2-1
8.8%
1-0
7.9%
1-2
7.8%
0-0
7.4%
0-1 ✓
6.9%
2-0
6.7%
2-2
5.8%
Erzgebirge Aue goals ↓
Dynamo Dresden goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
6.9%
5.3%
2.3%
0.8%
1
7.9%
13%
7.8%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.7%
8.8%
5.8%
2.5%
0.8%
3
3.3%
4.3%
2.8%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.2%
1.6%
1.0%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Erzgebirge Aue goals (down), columns = Dynamo Dresden goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Schalke 04
1.91
Werder Bremen
1.85
Hamburger SV
1.76
SV Darmstadt 98
1.76
FC St. Pauli
1.68
1. FC Heidenheim
1.53
SC Paderborn 07
1.50
1. FC Nürnberg
1.50
Holstein Kiel
1.32
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.29
Hannover 96
1.24
Karlsruher SC
1.21
Hansa Rostock
1.21
SV Sandhausen
1.21
Regensburg
1.18
Dynamo Dresden
0.94
Erzgebirge Aue
0.76
Ingolstadt
0.62
Erzgebirge Aue is 0.18 points worse than Dynamo Dresden in terms of average points per game (0.76 vs 0.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Schalke 04
2.12
SV Darmstadt 98
2.09
Hamburger SV
1.97
Werder Bremen
1.91
FC St. Pauli
1.79
SC Paderborn 07
1.65
Karlsruher SC
1.59
Regensburg
1.47
1. FC Nürnberg
1.44
Holstein Kiel
1.35
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.32
1. FC Heidenheim
1.26
SV Sandhausen
1.24
Hansa Rostock
1.21
Hannover 96
1.03
Dynamo Dresden
0.97
Erzgebirge Aue
0.94
Ingolstadt
0.88
Erzgebirge Aue is 0.03 goals worse than Dynamo Dresden in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamburger SV
1.03
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.24
Werder Bremen
1.26
SC Paderborn 07
1.29
FC Schalke 04
1.29
1. FC Heidenheim
1.32
FC St. Pauli
1.35
SV Darmstadt 98
1.35
Dynamo Dresden
1.35
Hannover 96
1.44
1. FC Nürnberg
1.44
Regensburg
1.50
Hansa Rostock
1.53
Holstein Kiel
1.59
SV Sandhausen
1.59
Karlsruher SC
1.62
Ingolstadt
1.91
Erzgebirge Aue
2.12
Erzgebirge Aue is 0.76 goals worse than Dynamo Dresden in terms of goals conceded per game (2.12 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Erzgebirge Aue
For 3.7 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 11.7 · Total 26.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dynamo Dresden
For 5.4 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 11.5 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Erzgebirge Aue
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.2
8.8
4.1
3.5
4.6
24.1
22.7
25.5
vs Stronger (34)
8.9
8.5
9.2
3.8
3.0
4.6
23.6
22.7
24.5
vs Similar (16)
9.4
10.8
8.0
4.6
4.5
4.6
25.1
22.6
27.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
42%
48%
36%
56%
44%
68%
74%
68%
80%
% under line
58%
52%
64%
44%
56%
32%
26%
32%
20%
This opponent (Dynamo Dresden) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dynamo Dresden
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.9
9.6
4.6
4.5
4.8
24.0
24.5
23.4
vs Stronger (12)
10.3
10.2
10.5
4.1
3.7
4.5
21.1
21.3
20.8
vs Similar (36)
9.0
8.7
9.3
4.8
4.7
4.8
24.5
24.9
24.0
vs Weaker (2)
7.5
5.0
10.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
32.0
35.0
29.0
% over line
42%
32%
52%
76%
76%
76%
68%
72%
64%
% under line
58%
68%
48%
24%
24%
24%
32%
28%
36%
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Hamburger SV
11.6
SV Sandhausen
11.0
1. FC Heidenheim
10.8
Karlsruher SC
10.2
1. FC Nürnberg
9.9
Fortuna Düsseldorf
9.9
Ingolstadt
9.9
FC Schalke 04
9.9
Holstein Kiel
9.9
SV Darmstadt 98
9.8
Hannover 96
9.7
SC Paderborn 07
9.6
FC St. Pauli
9.5
Regensburg
9.5
Dynamo Dresden
9.2
Erzgebirge Aue
9.0
Hansa Rostock
9.0
Werder Bremen
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SV Darmstadt 98
4.7
Hansa Rostock
4.7
SV Sandhausen
4.7
Dynamo Dresden
4.6
Werder Bremen
4.6
Regensburg
4.5
Karlsruher SC
4.4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
4.4
SC Paderborn 07
4.4
Hamburger SV
4.4
1. FC Nürnberg
4.3
Hannover 96
4.1
Ingolstadt
4.1
Erzgebirge Aue
4.1
FC St. Pauli
4.0
FC Schalke 04
4.0
Holstein Kiel
3.9
1. FC Heidenheim
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Regensburg
28.1
Ingolstadt
27.5
SV Darmstadt 98
26.1
FC St. Pauli
25.5
Karlsruher SC
25.4
Hamburger SV
25.4
Hansa Rostock
25.1
Werder Bremen
25.0
SV Sandhausen
25.0
Hannover 96
24.6
FC Schalke 04
24.2
Erzgebirge Aue
24.1
Dynamo Dresden
24.0
Fortuna Düsseldorf
23.9
1. FC Nürnberg
23.8
SC Paderborn 07
23.7
Holstein Kiel
22.0
1. FC Heidenheim
21.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.3%
Under 9.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
61.7%
Under 3.5
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
56.8%
Under 21.5
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Erzgebirge Aue
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.87
0.40
0.73
0.13
1.00
vs Stronger (22)
0.32
0.95
0.55
0.91
0.09
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.12
0.62
0.00
0.25
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dynamo Dresden) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dynamo Dresden
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.80
0.40
0.67
0.27
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.67
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.30
0.78
0.45
0.73
0.17
0.83
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo Dresden over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo Dresden over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo Dresden over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Erzgebirge Aue
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.73
0.93
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (22)
0.36
0.95
0.45
1.00
0.27
0.91
vs Similar (8)
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.75
1.50
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dynamo Dresden) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dynamo Dresden
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.93
0.53
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.83
1.09
0.55
0.50
1.08
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo Dresden over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo Dresden over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo Dresden over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dynamo Dresden · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jonas Sterner67%
Vincent Vermeij33%
Robert Wagner33%
Niklas Hauptmann0%
Alexander Rossipal0%
Nils Fröling0%
Thomas Keller0%
Tim Schreiber0%
Jakob Lemmer0%
Ben Bobzien0%
Kaan İnanoğlu0%
Friedrich Müller0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Thomas Keller100%
Ben Bobzien33%
Niklas Hauptmann0%
Alexander Rossipal0%
Vincent Vermeij0%
Nils Fröling0%
Tim Schreiber0%
Jakob Lemmer0%
Jonas Sterner0%
Robert Wagner0%
Kaan İnanoğlu0%
Friedrich Müller0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vincent Vermeij33%
Jonas Sterner33%
Ben Bobzien33%
Niklas Hauptmann0%
Alexander Rossipal0%
Nils Fröling0%
Thomas Keller0%
Tim Schreiber0%
Jakob Lemmer0%
Robert Wagner0%
Kaan İnanoğlu0%
Friedrich Müller0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vincent Vermeij33%
Jakob Lemmer33%
Ben Bobzien33%
Niklas Hauptmann0%
Alexander Rossipal0%
Nils Fröling0%
Thomas Keller0%
Tim Schreiber0%
Jonas Sterner0%
Robert Wagner0%
Kaan İnanoğlu0%
Friedrich Müller0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
FSP (27)
€46m
SP0 (33)
€43m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
H9 (26)
€33m
KS (25)
€31m
SD9 (28)
€24m
DD (26)
€19m
FD (26)
€10m
HR (27)
€8m
ING (26)
€7m
EA (18)
€2m
Erzgebirge Aue's squad is €17m less valuable than Dynamo Dresden's (€2m vs €19m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (13)
€50m
HS (11)
€46m
FS0 (8)
€17m
KS (7)
€16m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
SP0 (11)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
FSP (7)
€10m
H9 (9)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
DD (8)
€6m
HR (10)
€3m
ING (10)
€3m
FD (8)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
Erzgebirge Aue's attack is €6m less valuable than Dynamo Dresden's (€1m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
FS0 (8)
€24m
SP0 (13)
€18m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
H9 (8)
€11m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
DD (4)
€4m
KS (6)
€4m
FD (5)
€2m
HR (4)
€2m
ING (4)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
Erzgebirge Aue's midfield is €4m less valuable than Dynamo Dresden's (€1m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
H9 (9)
€12m
KS (12)
€12m
SP0 (9)
€11m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
FD (13)
€5m
HR (13)
€3m
ING (12)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
Erzgebirge Aue's defence is €7m less valuable than Dynamo Dresden's (€1m vs €8m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Schalke 04
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
SV Darmstadt 98
FC St. Pauli
1. FC Heidenheim
SC Paderborn 07
1. FC Nürnberg
Holstein Kiel
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Hannover 96
Karlsruher SC
Hansa Rostock
SV Sandhausen
Ingolstadt