This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamburger SV
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.40
1.07
1.33
0.87
1.47
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.75
1.00
2.00
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (15)
1.00
1.27
1.25
0.88
0.71
1.71
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
1.09
0.83
1.83
1.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.4%
Under 1.5
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
37.6%
Under 2.5
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
18.0%
Under 3.5
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
34.5%
No
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
17.5%
0-2
15.3%
0-0
12.1%
1-1
10.9%
0-3
8.5%
1-2
8.2%
1-0
5.0%
1-3 ✓
4.5%
Erzgebirge Aue goals ↓
Hamburger SV goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
18%
15%
8.5%
3.5%
1
5.0%
11%
8.2%
4.5%
1.9%
2
1.6%
2.6%
2.2%
1.2%
0.5%
3
0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Erzgebirge Aue goals (down), columns = Hamburger SV goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
1. FC Köln
1.85
SC Paderborn 07
1.68
Union Berlin
1.68
Hamburger SV
1.65
1. FC Heidenheim
1.62
FC St. Pauli
1.44
Arminia Bielefeld
1.44
Holstein Kiel
1.44
Regensburg
1.44
SV Darmstadt 98
1.35
VfL Bochum
1.29
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.24
Dynamo Dresden
1.24
Erzgebirge Aue
1.18
SV Sandhausen
1.12
Ingolstadt
1.03
1. FC Magdeburg
0.91
Duisburg
0.82
Erzgebirge Aue is 0.47 points worse than Hamburger SV in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.65).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
1. FC Köln
2.47
SC Paderborn 07
2.24
Holstein Kiel
1.76
1. FC Heidenheim
1.62
Regensburg
1.62
Union Berlin
1.59
Arminia Bielefeld
1.53
VfL Bochum
1.44
FC St. Pauli
1.35
Hamburger SV
1.32
SV Darmstadt 98
1.32
SV Sandhausen
1.32
Erzgebirge Aue
1.26
Ingolstadt
1.26
Dynamo Dresden
1.21
Duisburg
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.09
1. FC Magdeburg
1.03
Erzgebirge Aue is 0.06 goals worse than Hamburger SV in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Union Berlin
0.97
Hamburger SV
1.24
1. FC Heidenheim
1.32
1. FC Köln
1.38
Erzgebirge Aue
1.38
Dynamo Dresden
1.41
SC Paderborn 07
1.47
Arminia Bielefeld
1.47
VfL Bochum
1.47
Holstein Kiel
1.50
SV Sandhausen
1.53
FC St. Pauli
1.56
1. FC Magdeburg
1.56
SV Darmstadt 98
1.56
Regensburg
1.59
Ingolstadt
1.62
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.65
Duisburg
1.91
Erzgebirge Aue is 0.15 goals worse than Hamburger SV in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Erzgebirge Aue
For 3.5 · Against 5.9 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 12.3 · Total 27.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hamburger SV
For 5.9 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 13.5 · Total 25.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Erzgebirge Aue
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.1
9.6
4.2
4.0
4.3
28.5
28.1
28.8
vs Stronger (28)
9.4
9.0
9.7
3.8
3.9
3.6
27.3
27.5
27.2
vs Similar (22)
9.3
9.2
9.5
4.7
4.1
5.3
29.9
28.9
30.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
59%
38%
68%
62%
73%
91%
100%
83%
% under line
52%
41%
62%
32%
38%
27%
9%
0%
17%
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamburger SV
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.1
10.6
3.9
4.5
3.3
27.1
28.3
25.8
vs Stronger (8)
9.9
11.5
8.2
2.9
3.2
2.5
25.2
24.0
26.5
vs Similar (29)
11.0
11.0
11.0
4.4
5.1
3.5
28.1
30.0
25.8
vs Weaker (13)
11.1
11.0
11.1
3.5
3.7
3.4
25.9
26.5
25.4
% over line
66%
65%
67%
58%
73%
42%
80%
88%
71%
% under line
34%
35%
33%
42%
27%
58%
20%
12%
29%
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
SC Paderborn 07
13.1
Hamburger SV
10.8
1. FC Köln
10.7
Ingolstadt
10.5
1. FC Heidenheim
10.4
SV Darmstadt 98
10.3
Arminia Bielefeld
10.3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
10.1
Regensburg
10.0
Holstein Kiel
10.0
VfL Bochum
9.8
Union Berlin
9.7
FC St. Pauli
9.6
Dynamo Dresden
9.5
Erzgebirge Aue
9.3
SV Sandhausen
8.9
Duisburg
8.8
1. FC Magdeburg
7.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SC Paderborn 07
5.4
Regensburg
4.9
1. FC Magdeburg
4.8
1. FC Heidenheim
4.6
Erzgebirge Aue
4.5
Holstein Kiel
4.5
VfL Bochum
4.4
Duisburg
4.4
Dynamo Dresden
4.3
SV Sandhausen
4.3
SV Darmstadt 98
4.2
Ingolstadt
4.2
FC St. Pauli
4.1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
3.9
Hamburger SV
3.9
1. FC Köln
3.9
Union Berlin
3.8
Arminia Bielefeld
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Sandhausen
30.6
Regensburg
30.5
Ingolstadt
30.0
1. FC Heidenheim
28.9
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
28.9
Union Berlin
28.8
Erzgebirge Aue
28.5
1. FC Köln
28.4
Duisburg
28.2
VfL Bochum
28.0
SC Paderborn 07
27.6
Dynamo Dresden
27.5
SV Darmstadt 98
27.3
Holstein Kiel
27.3
Hamburger SV
27.1
1. FC Magdeburg
26.5
FC St. Pauli
26.2
Arminia Bielefeld
25.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
52.2%
Under 9.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
60.8%
Under 3.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
82.9%
Under 21.5
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Erzgebirge Aue
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.64
0.43
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (17)
0.59
0.59
0.86
0.43
0.40
0.70
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.54
0.43
0.43
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamburger SV
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.27
0.53
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.25
0.00
1.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (15)
0.33
0.60
0.25
0.38
0.43
0.86
vs Weaker (11)
0.55
0.36
0.33
0.67
0.80
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamburger SV over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamburger SV over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamburger SV over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Erzgebirge Aue
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.50
0.57
0.44
0.94
vs Stronger (17)
0.41
0.71
0.71
0.29
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.85
0.29
0.86
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamburger SV
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.29
0.86
vs Weaker (11)
0.55
0.73
0.50
1.17
0.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamburger SV over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamburger SV over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamburger SV over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hamburger SV · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fábio Vieira23%
Robert Glatzel20%
Luka Vušković20%
Albert Sambi Lokonga19%
Jean-Luc Dompé14%
Albert Grønbæk14%
Rayan Philippe13%
Bakery Jatta12%
Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer11%
Philip Otele11%
Yussuf Poulsen6%
Fabio Baldé6%
Nicolás Capaldo4%
Emir Sahiti0%
Jonas Meffert0%
Daniel Heuer Fernandes0%
Jordan Torunarigha0%
Guilherme Ramos0%
Miro Muheim0%
Immanuel Pherai0%
Warmed Omari0%
Nicolai Remberg0%
Giorgi Gocholeishvili0%
William Mikelbrencis0%
Daniel Elfadli0%
Damion Downs0%
Aboubaka Soumahoro0%
Otto Stange0%
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nicolás Capaldo38%
Nicolai Remberg38%
Philip Otele33%
Yussuf Poulsen25%
Daniel Elfadli23%
Miro Muheim23%
Aboubaka Soumahoro20%
Luka Vušković20%
Jonas Meffert17%
Jordan Torunarigha15%
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit15%
Immanuel Pherai14%
Albert Sambi Lokonga12%
William Mikelbrencis12%
Fábio Vieira10%
Daniel Heuer Fernandes9%
Giorgi Gocholeishvili8%
Rayan Philippe7%
Bakery Jatta6%
Fabio Baldé6%
Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer6%
Jean-Luc Dompé0%
Emir Sahiti0%
Robert Glatzel0%
Guilherme Ramos0%
Warmed Omari0%
Albert Grønbæk0%
Damion Downs0%
Otto Stange0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Albert Grønbæk29%
Fábio Vieira16%
Miro Muheim16%
William Mikelbrencis15%
Nicolás Capaldo12%
Philip Otele11%
Robert Glatzel10%
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit8%
Bakery Jatta6%
Fabio Baldé6%
Nicolai Remberg6%
Warmed Omari5%
Giorgi Gocholeishvili4%
Yussuf Poulsen0%
Albert Sambi Lokonga0%
Jean-Luc Dompé0%
Emir Sahiti0%
Jonas Meffert0%
Daniel Heuer Fernandes0%
Jordan Torunarigha0%
Guilherme Ramos0%
Rayan Philippe0%
Immanuel Pherai0%
Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer0%
Daniel Elfadli0%
Damion Downs0%
Aboubaka Soumahoro0%
Luka Vušković0%
Otto Stange0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fábio Vieira23%
Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer17%
Rayan Philippe10%
Miro Muheim10%
Jean-Luc Dompé10%
Nicolás Capaldo8%
Luka Vušković7%
Bakery Jatta6%
Robert Glatzel5%
Albert Sambi Lokonga4%
Nicolai Remberg3%
Yussuf Poulsen0%
Emir Sahiti0%
Jonas Meffert0%
Daniel Heuer Fernandes0%
Jordan Torunarigha0%
Guilherme Ramos0%
Philip Otele0%
Immanuel Pherai0%
Warmed Omari0%
Albert Grønbæk0%
Giorgi Gocholeishvili0%
William Mikelbrencis0%
Daniel Elfadli0%
Damion Downs0%
Fabio Baldé0%
Aboubaka Soumahoro0%
Otto Stange0%
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
1FK (74)
€133m
UB (29)
€123m
HS (28)
€117m
FSP (27)
€46m
SP0 (33)
€43m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
SD9 (28)
€24m
1FM (26)
€21m
VB (24)
€19m
DD (26)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
DUI (26)
€9m
ING (26)
€7m
EA (18)
€2m
Erzgebirge Aue's squad is €115m less valuable than Hamburger SV's (€2m vs €117m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
1FK (25)
€72m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
1FH (11)
€15m
SP0 (11)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
1FM (9)
€10m
FSP (7)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
AB (8)
€7m
DD (8)
€6m
VB (9)
€6m
SGF (6)
€4m
DUI (12)
€4m
ING (10)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
Erzgebirge Aue's attack is €45m less valuable than Hamburger SV's (€1m vs €46m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (5)
€34m
UB (6)
€26m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
FSP (8)
€15m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
DD (4)
€4m
1FM (4)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
DUI (4)
€2m
ING (4)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
Erzgebirge Aue's midfield is €33m less valuable than Hamburger SV's (€1m vs €34m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (13)
€50m
1FK (33)
€43m
HS (12)
€37m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FH (11)
€12m
SP0 (9)
€11m
SGF (10)
€9m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
1FM (13)
€7m
ING (12)
€3m
DUI (10)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
Erzgebirge Aue's defence is €37m less valuable than Hamburger SV's (€1m vs €37m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
1. FC Köln
SC Paderborn 07
Union Berlin
1. FC Heidenheim
Holstein Kiel
Arminia Bielefeld
FC St. Pauli
SV Darmstadt 98
VfL Bochum
Dynamo Dresden
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
SV Sandhausen
Ingolstadt
1. FC Magdeburg
Duisburg