This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamburger SV
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.23
2.00
0.93
1.53
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.78
1.67
2.50
1.50
1.20
1.80
vs Weaker (21)
1.76
1.05
1.82
0.73
1.70
1.40
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.0%
Under 1.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.0%
@ 1.70+0.5%
Under 2.5
44.0%
@ 2.12-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.6%
Under 3.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.9%
No
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
8.4%
0-1
8.4%
0-0
6.5%
2-1
6.3%
1-3
5.7%
2-2
5.6%
Erzgebirge Aue goals ↓
Hamburger SV goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
8.4%
8.4%
5.0%
2.2%
1
5.1%
12%
9.7%
5.7%
2.5%
2
3.6%
6.3%
5.6%
3.3%
1.5%
3
1.4%
2.4%
2.1%
1.3%
0.6%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Erzgebirge Aue goals (down), columns = Hamburger SV goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arminia Bielefeld
2.00
VfB Stuttgart
1.71
1. FC Heidenheim
1.62
Hamburger SV
1.59
SV Darmstadt 98
1.53
Hannover 96
1.41
Erzgebirge Aue
1.38
VfL Bochum
1.35
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.29
Holstein Kiel
1.26
SV Sandhausen
1.26
Regensburg
1.26
VfL Osnabrück
1.18
FC St. Pauli
1.15
Karlsruher SC
1.09
1. FC Nürnberg
1.09
Wehen
1.00
Dynamo Dresden
0.94
Erzgebirge Aue is 0.21 points worse than Hamburger SV in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.59).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Arminia Bielefeld
1.91
Hamburger SV
1.82
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
Hannover 96
1.59
Holstein Kiel
1.56
VfL Bochum
1.56
Regensburg
1.47
SV Darmstadt 98
1.41
VfL Osnabrück
1.35
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.35
Erzgebirge Aue
1.35
Karlsruher SC
1.32
Wehen
1.32
1. FC Heidenheim
1.32
1. FC Nürnberg
1.32
SV Sandhausen
1.26
FC St. Pauli
1.21
Dynamo Dresden
0.94
Erzgebirge Aue is 0.47 goals worse than Hamburger SV in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 1.82).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arminia Bielefeld
0.88
1. FC Heidenheim
1.06
VfB Stuttgart
1.21
SV Darmstadt 98
1.26
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.32
SV Sandhausen
1.32
Hamburger SV
1.35
VfL Osnabrück
1.41
Erzgebirge Aue
1.41
Hannover 96
1.44
FC St. Pauli
1.47
VfL Bochum
1.50
Karlsruher SC
1.65
Holstein Kiel
1.65
Regensburg
1.65
Dynamo Dresden
1.71
1. FC Nürnberg
1.71
Wehen
1.91
Erzgebirge Aue is 0.06 goals worse than Hamburger SV in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Erzgebirge Aue
For 3.0 · Against 6.2 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 14.3 · Total 27.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hamburger SV
For 7.0 · Against 3.1 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.8 · Against 1.9 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.6 · Against 12.7 · Total 20.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Erzgebirge Aue
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.1
9.9
5.3
5.8
4.9
26.8
27.8
25.8
vs Stronger (28)
9.7
9.6
9.7
5.4
5.9
4.9
25.5
27.0
24.2
vs Similar (22)
10.4
10.6
10.1
5.3
5.7
4.9
28.4
28.6
28.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
48%
44%
84%
84%
84%
82%
88%
76%
% under line
54%
52%
56%
16%
16%
16%
18%
12%
24%
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamburger SV
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.2
10.2
3.6
3.4
3.8
24.4
23.7
25.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
9.9
8.6
11.4
3.7
3.9
3.6
24.9
22.9
27.1
vs Weaker (35)
9.6
9.5
9.7
3.6
3.1
3.9
24.1
24.1
24.2
% over line
44%
25%
62%
52%
50%
54%
64%
58%
69%
% under line
56%
75%
38%
48%
50%
46%
36%
42%
31%
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Regensburg
11.7
Holstein Kiel
11.5
Karlsruher SC
11.0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
10.9
1. FC Heidenheim
10.8
SV Sandhausen
10.6
VfB Stuttgart
10.5
1. FC Nürnberg
10.5
VfL Bochum
10.4
Hannover 96
10.3
SV Darmstadt 98
10.2
FC St. Pauli
10.1
Erzgebirge Aue
10.0
Wehen
9.9
VfL Osnabrück
9.9
Arminia Bielefeld
9.8
Hamburger SV
9.7
Dynamo Dresden
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Erzgebirge Aue
5.3
VfL Osnabrück
5.3
Karlsruher SC
4.8
SV Sandhausen
4.5
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4.5
Dynamo Dresden
4.4
Wehen
4.4
SV Darmstadt 98
4.3
Hannover 96
4.3
VfL Bochum
4.2
Regensburg
4.2
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
Arminia Bielefeld
4.0
1. FC Nürnberg
3.9
FC St. Pauli
3.9
Holstein Kiel
3.9
1. FC Heidenheim
3.8
Hamburger SV
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dynamo Dresden
27.9
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
27.8
Regensburg
27.7
VfL Bochum
27.4
VfL Osnabrück
26.9
Erzgebirge Aue
26.8
SV Sandhausen
26.1
SV Darmstadt 98
25.8
Hannover 96
25.7
Karlsruher SC
25.2
Holstein Kiel
24.9
FC St. Pauli
24.6
Arminia Bielefeld
24.5
Hamburger SV
24.4
1. FC Heidenheim
24.2
Wehen
23.5
1. FC Nürnberg
23.4
VfB Stuttgart
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.7%
Under 9.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
64.6%
Under 3.5
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
72.0%
Under 21.5
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Erzgebirge Aue
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.93
0.43
0.31
0.69
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
0.56
0.57
0.43
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.57
1.29
0.43
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamburger SV
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.47
0.67
0.33
0.47
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.67
1.25
0.75
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (21)
0.48
0.38
0.45
0.18
0.50
0.60
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamburger SV over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamburger SV over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamburger SV over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Erzgebirge Aue
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.80
0.86
0.64
0.56
0.94
vs Stronger (16)
0.62
1.12
1.14
1.00
0.22
1.22
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.43
0.57
0.29
1.00
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamburger SV
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.77
1.33
0.60
1.07
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.00
1.00
1.25
0.75
0.80
1.20
vs Weaker (21)
1.29
0.67
1.36
0.55
1.20
0.80
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamburger SV over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamburger SV over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamburger SV over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hamburger SV · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fábio Vieira23%
Robert Glatzel20%
Luka Vušković20%
Albert Sambi Lokonga19%
Jean-Luc Dompé14%
Albert Grønbæk14%
Rayan Philippe13%
Bakery Jatta12%
Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer11%
Philip Otele11%
Yussuf Poulsen6%
Fabio Baldé6%
Nicolás Capaldo4%
Emir Sahiti0%
Jonas Meffert0%
Daniel Heuer Fernandes0%
Jordan Torunarigha0%
Guilherme Ramos0%
Miro Muheim0%
Immanuel Pherai0%
Warmed Omari0%
Nicolai Remberg0%
Giorgi Gocholeishvili0%
William Mikelbrencis0%
Daniel Elfadli0%
Damion Downs0%
Aboubaka Soumahoro0%
Otto Stange0%
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nicolás Capaldo38%
Nicolai Remberg38%
Philip Otele33%
Yussuf Poulsen25%
Daniel Elfadli23%
Miro Muheim23%
Aboubaka Soumahoro20%
Luka Vušković20%
Jonas Meffert17%
Jordan Torunarigha15%
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit15%
Immanuel Pherai14%
Albert Sambi Lokonga12%
William Mikelbrencis12%
Fábio Vieira10%
Daniel Heuer Fernandes9%
Giorgi Gocholeishvili8%
Rayan Philippe7%
Bakery Jatta6%
Fabio Baldé6%
Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer6%
Jean-Luc Dompé0%
Emir Sahiti0%
Robert Glatzel0%
Guilherme Ramos0%
Warmed Omari0%
Albert Grønbæk0%
Damion Downs0%
Otto Stange0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Albert Grønbæk29%
Fábio Vieira16%
Miro Muheim16%
William Mikelbrencis15%
Nicolás Capaldo12%
Philip Otele11%
Robert Glatzel10%
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit8%
Bakery Jatta6%
Fabio Baldé6%
Nicolai Remberg6%
Warmed Omari5%
Giorgi Gocholeishvili4%
Yussuf Poulsen0%
Albert Sambi Lokonga0%
Jean-Luc Dompé0%
Emir Sahiti0%
Jonas Meffert0%
Daniel Heuer Fernandes0%
Jordan Torunarigha0%
Guilherme Ramos0%
Rayan Philippe0%
Immanuel Pherai0%
Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer0%
Daniel Elfadli0%
Damion Downs0%
Aboubaka Soumahoro0%
Luka Vušković0%
Otto Stange0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fábio Vieira23%
Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer17%
Rayan Philippe10%
Miro Muheim10%
Jean-Luc Dompé10%
Nicolás Capaldo8%
Luka Vušković7%
Bakery Jatta6%
Robert Glatzel5%
Albert Sambi Lokonga4%
Nicolai Remberg3%
Yussuf Poulsen0%
Emir Sahiti0%
Jonas Meffert0%
Daniel Heuer Fernandes0%
Jordan Torunarigha0%
Guilherme Ramos0%
Philip Otele0%
Immanuel Pherai0%
Warmed Omari0%
Albert Grønbæk0%
Giorgi Gocholeishvili0%
William Mikelbrencis0%
Daniel Elfadli0%
Damion Downs0%
Fabio Baldé0%
Aboubaka Soumahoro0%
Otto Stange0%
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VS (54)
€430m
HS (28)
€117m
FSP (27)
€46m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
H9 (26)
€33m
KS (25)
€31m
SD9 (28)
€24m
VB (24)
€19m
DD (26)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
VO (25)
€10m
EA (18)
€2m
Erzgebirge Aue's squad is €115m less valuable than Hamburger SV's (€2m vs €117m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VS (19)
€193m
HS (11)
€46m
KS (7)
€16m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
FSP (7)
€10m
H9 (9)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
AB (8)
€7m
DD (8)
€6m
VB (9)
€6m
VO (9)
€5m
SGF (6)
€4m
EA (5)
€1m
Erzgebirge Aue's attack is €45m less valuable than Hamburger SV's (€1m vs €46m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VS (10)
€92m
HS (5)
€34m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
H9 (8)
€11m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
DD (4)
€4m
KS (6)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
VO (7)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
Erzgebirge Aue's midfield is €33m less valuable than Hamburger SV's (€1m vs €34m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VS (25)
€145m
HS (12)
€37m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
H9 (9)
€12m
KS (12)
€12m
SGF (10)
€9m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
VO (9)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
Erzgebirge Aue's defence is €37m less valuable than Hamburger SV's (€1m vs €37m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Arminia Bielefeld
VfB Stuttgart
1. FC Heidenheim
SV Darmstadt 98
Hannover 96
VfL Bochum
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
SV Sandhausen
Holstein Kiel
VfL Osnabrück
FC St. Pauli
Karlsruher SC
1. FC Nürnberg
Dynamo Dresden