This opponent (Hansa Rostock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hansa Rostock
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.57
1.00
1.47
1.47
1.67
vs Stronger (18)
1.00
1.61
0.88
1.25
1.10
1.90
vs Similar (12)
1.58
1.50
1.14
1.71
2.20
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.7%
Under 1.5
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.3%
@ 1.86+12.5%
Under 2.5
36.7%
@ 1.92-12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.2%
Under 3.5
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.8%
No
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
7.7%
0-1
6.7%
1-3
6.5%
2-2 ✓
6.1%
2-1
6.0%
0-3
5.2%
Erzgebirge Aue goals ↓
Hansa Rostock goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
6.7%
7.7%
5.2%
2.6%
1
3.8%
11%
9.7%
6.5%
3.3%
2
3.0%
6.0%
6.1%
4.1%
2.0%
3
1.3%
2.5%
2.5%
1.7%
0.9%
4
0.4%
0.8%
0.8%
0.5%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Erzgebirge Aue goals (down), columns = Hansa Rostock goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Schalke 04
1.91
Werder Bremen
1.85
Hamburger SV
1.76
SV Darmstadt 98
1.76
FC St. Pauli
1.68
1. FC Heidenheim
1.53
SC Paderborn 07
1.50
1. FC Nürnberg
1.50
Holstein Kiel
1.32
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.29
Hannover 96
1.24
Karlsruher SC
1.21
Hansa Rostock
1.21
SV Sandhausen
1.21
Regensburg
1.18
Dynamo Dresden
0.94
Erzgebirge Aue
0.76
Ingolstadt
0.62
Erzgebirge Aue is 0.44 points worse than Hansa Rostock in terms of average points per game (0.76 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Schalke 04
2.12
SV Darmstadt 98
2.09
Hamburger SV
1.97
Werder Bremen
1.91
FC St. Pauli
1.79
SC Paderborn 07
1.65
Karlsruher SC
1.59
Regensburg
1.47
1. FC Nürnberg
1.44
Holstein Kiel
1.35
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.32
1. FC Heidenheim
1.26
SV Sandhausen
1.24
Hansa Rostock
1.21
Hannover 96
1.03
Dynamo Dresden
0.97
Erzgebirge Aue
0.94
Ingolstadt
0.88
Erzgebirge Aue is 0.26 goals worse than Hansa Rostock in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamburger SV
1.03
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.24
Werder Bremen
1.26
SC Paderborn 07
1.29
FC Schalke 04
1.29
1. FC Heidenheim
1.32
FC St. Pauli
1.35
SV Darmstadt 98
1.35
Dynamo Dresden
1.35
Hannover 96
1.44
1. FC Nürnberg
1.44
Regensburg
1.50
Hansa Rostock
1.53
Holstein Kiel
1.59
SV Sandhausen
1.59
Karlsruher SC
1.62
Ingolstadt
1.91
Erzgebirge Aue
2.12
Erzgebirge Aue is 0.59 goals worse than Hansa Rostock in terms of goals conceded per game (2.12 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Erzgebirge Aue
For 4.5 · Against 6.2 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 13.0 · Total 25.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hansa Rostock
For 4.6 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 11.2 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Erzgebirge Aue
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.2
9.1
4.1
3.6
4.5
24.3
22.4
26.2
vs Stronger (35)
9.0
8.2
9.8
3.8
3.6
4.0
23.3
22.2
24.5
vs Similar (15)
9.5
11.7
7.5
4.7
3.9
5.5
26.7
23.0
30.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
42%
48%
36%
56%
48%
64%
76%
68%
84%
% under line
58%
52%
64%
44%
52%
36%
24%
32%
16%
This opponent (Hansa Rostock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hansa Rostock
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (30)
9.4
8.9
10.0
4.5
4.7
4.3
24.2
25.6
22.8
vs Stronger (18)
9.2
8.6
9.6
3.9
3.8
4.0
22.7
24.4
21.4
vs Similar (12)
9.8
9.1
10.8
5.4
5.7
5.0
26.4
27.0
25.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
40%
27%
53%
67%
73%
60%
67%
80%
53%
% under line
60%
73%
47%
33%
27%
40%
33%
20%
47%
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
1. FC Heidenheim
11.3
Hamburger SV
11.1
Hannover 96
10.7
1. FC Nürnberg
10.4
SV Sandhausen
10.3
Fortuna Düsseldorf
10.1
Holstein Kiel
10.1
FC Schalke 04
10.0
Werder Bremen
9.8
Karlsruher SC
9.7
Dynamo Dresden
9.7
SC Paderborn 07
9.7
SV Darmstadt 98
9.5
Hansa Rostock
9.4
Ingolstadt
9.4
FC St. Pauli
9.2
Erzgebirge Aue
9.1
Regensburg
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SV Darmstadt 98
4.6
Dynamo Dresden
4.6
Hansa Rostock
4.5
SV Sandhausen
4.4
Hamburger SV
4.3
Regensburg
4.3
Ingolstadt
4.2
SC Paderborn 07
4.2
Werder Bremen
4.1
1. FC Nürnberg
4.1
Erzgebirge Aue
4.1
Holstein Kiel
4.0
Fortuna Düsseldorf
4.0
Karlsruher SC
4.0
Hannover 96
3.8
FC St. Pauli
3.8
FC Schalke 04
3.8
1. FC Heidenheim
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Regensburg
27.8
Ingolstadt
26.4
SV Darmstadt 98
25.1
Erzgebirge Aue
24.3
Hansa Rostock
24.2
SV Sandhausen
23.8
Hamburger SV
23.7
Hannover 96
23.6
FC St. Pauli
23.6
Fortuna Düsseldorf
23.5
Karlsruher SC
23.5
Werder Bremen
23.5
1. FC Nürnberg
23.1
FC Schalke 04
22.9
Dynamo Dresden
22.8
SC Paderborn 07
22.7
Holstein Kiel
21.7
1. FC Heidenheim
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
52.1%
Under 9.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
59.3%
Under 3.5
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
55.6%
Under 21.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Erzgebirge Aue
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.97
0.33
0.80
0.20
1.13
vs Stronger (22)
0.27
1.05
0.36
1.09
0.18
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.25
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.25
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Hansa Rostock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hansa Rostock
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.40
0.53
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (18)
0.44
0.56
0.25
0.25
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.83
0.57
0.86
1.20
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hansa Rostock over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hansa Rostock over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hansa Rostock over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Erzgebirge Aue
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.07
0.47
1.13
0.93
1.00
vs Stronger (22)
0.64
1.14
0.45
1.18
0.82
1.09
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.88
0.50
1.00
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Hansa Rostock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hansa Rostock
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.90
0.60
0.93
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (18)
0.56
1.06
0.62
1.00
0.50
1.10
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.67
0.57
0.86
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hansa Rostock over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hansa Rostock over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hansa Rostock over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hansa Rostock · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kai Pröger13%
Júnior Brumado13%
Jasper van der Werff10%
Nico Neidhart10%
Juan José Perea9%
Sveinn Aron Guðjohnsen8%
Nils Fröling7%
Sarpreet Singh7%
John-Patrick Strauss7%
Damian Roßbach6%
Dennis Dressel6%
Christian Kinsombi5%
Kevin Schumacher3%
Svante Ingelsson3%
Sebastian Vasiliadis0%
Jonas David0%
Lukas Hinterseer0%
Alexander Rossipal0%
Konstantinos Stafylidis0%
Markus Kolke0%
Oliver Hüsing0%
Simon Rhein0%
Janik Bachmann0%
Serhat-Semih Güler0%
Jannis Lang0%
Felix Ruschke0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Konstantinos Stafylidis36%
Damian Roßbach34%
Svante Ingelsson30%
Jonas David27%
Sebastian Vasiliadis25%
John-Patrick Strauss20%
Alexander Rossipal20%
Oliver Hüsing20%
Nico Neidhart19%
Kai Pröger17%
Lukas Hinterseer14%
Kevin Schumacher14%
Júnior Brumado13%
Jannis Lang12%
Juan José Perea12%
Christian Kinsombi11%
Jasper van der Werff10%
Janik Bachmann10%
Markus Kolke9%
Dennis Dressel9%
Sveinn Aron Guðjohnsen8%
Sarpreet Singh7%
Simon Rhein0%
Nils Fröling0%
Serhat-Semih Güler0%
Felix Ruschke0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lukas Hinterseer14%
Svante Ingelsson13%
Konstantinos Stafylidis9%
Alexander Rossipal8%
Simon Rhein7%
Kai Pröger7%
Oliver Hüsing7%
Nils Fröling4%
Kevin Schumacher3%
Damian Roßbach3%
Juan José Perea3%
Dennis Dressel3%
Jasper van der Werff0%
Sarpreet Singh0%
Júnior Brumado0%
Sebastian Vasiliadis0%
Jonas David0%
John-Patrick Strauss0%
Markus Kolke0%
Janik Bachmann0%
Nico Neidhart0%
Sveinn Aron Guðjohnsen0%
Christian Kinsombi0%
Serhat-Semih Güler0%
Jannis Lang0%
Felix Ruschke0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kai Pröger17%
Juan José Perea12%
Christian Kinsombi11%
Janik Bachmann10%
Júnior Brumado9%
Kevin Schumacher7%
Sarpreet Singh7%
John-Patrick Strauss7%
Svante Ingelsson7%
Sebastian Vasiliadis5%
Jasper van der Werff0%
Jonas David0%
Lukas Hinterseer0%
Alexander Rossipal0%
Konstantinos Stafylidis0%
Markus Kolke0%
Oliver Hüsing0%
Simon Rhein0%
Damian Roßbach0%
Dennis Dressel0%
Nico Neidhart0%
Nils Fröling0%
Sveinn Aron Guðjohnsen0%
Serhat-Semih Güler0%
Jannis Lang0%
Felix Ruschke0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
FSP (27)
€46m
SP0 (33)
€43m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
H9 (26)
€33m
KS (25)
€31m
SD9 (28)
€24m
DD (26)
€19m
FD (26)
€10m
HR (27)
€8m
ING (26)
€7m
EA (18)
€2m
Erzgebirge Aue's squad is €6m less valuable than Hansa Rostock's (€2m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (13)
€50m
HS (11)
€46m
FS0 (8)
€17m
KS (7)
€16m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
SP0 (11)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
FSP (7)
€10m
H9 (9)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
DD (8)
€6m
HR (10)
€3m
ING (10)
€3m
FD (8)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
Erzgebirge Aue's attack is €2m less valuable than Hansa Rostock's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
FS0 (8)
€24m
SP0 (13)
€18m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
H9 (8)
€11m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
DD (4)
€4m
KS (6)
€4m
FD (5)
€2m
HR (4)
€2m
ING (4)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
Erzgebirge Aue's midfield is €1m less valuable than Hansa Rostock's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
H9 (9)
€12m
KS (12)
€12m
SP0 (9)
€11m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
FD (13)
€5m
HR (13)
€3m
ING (12)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
Erzgebirge Aue's defence is €2m less valuable than Hansa Rostock's (€1m vs €3m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Schalke 04
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
SV Darmstadt 98
FC St. Pauli
1. FC Heidenheim
SC Paderborn 07
1. FC Nürnberg
Holstein Kiel
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Hannover 96
Karlsruher SC
SV Sandhausen
Dynamo Dresden
Ingolstadt