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Esbjerg vs HB Koge Result & Analysis

Date: 01/09/2025
Time: 17:00
Final 3-2
Esbjerg
Esbjerg
Vs
35%
29%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
HB Koge
HB Koge
Denmark: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Esbjerg winâś“ Hit
34.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
HB Koge winâś— Miss
36.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

EsbjergEsbjerg

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W24L02L21W10W21W02L51W10W02LH·HVI15/05A·ODE23/05H·LYN20/07H·HVI26/07A·MID02/08A·MAR06/08H·KOL09/08A·B 915/08H·AAL19/08A·HOB24/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.530.731.671.801.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)1.321.570.731.672.001.46
vs Weaker (2)0.501.00--0.501.00
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HB KogeHB Koge

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W12L20W21W33D13L02L22D01L13LH·B 916/05A·HOB22/05H·HOB18/07H·AAR25/07A·HVI29/07A·KOL01/08H·AAL10/08A·MID16/08H·B 919/08A·HIL23/08
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.471.201.471.401.47
vs Stronger (2)2.500.50--2.500.50
vs Similar (25)1.281.681.291.571.271.82
vs Weaker (3)0.670.330.000.001.000.50
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.6%
Under 1.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.6%
Under 2.5
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.7%
Under 3.5
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.3%
No
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-2
8.3%
0-0
8.2%
0-1
8.2%
2-1
8.1%
1-0
7.9%
0-2
6.4%
2-0
6.0%
Esbjerg goals ↓
HB Koge goals →
01234
08.2%8.2%6.4%2.9%1.0%
17.9%14%8.3%3.8%1.3%
26.0%8.1%5.5%2.5%0.8%
32.6%3.5%2.4%1.1%0.4%
40.9%1.2%0.8%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Esbjerg goals (down), columns = HB Koge goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Lyngby
1.88
AC Horsens
1.69
Esbjerg
1.62
Hillerød
1.56
Aalborg
1.44
Hvidovre
1.44
Aarhus Fremad
1.38
Hobro
1.31
HB Koge
1.25
Kolding IF
1.19
B 93
1.16
Middelfart
0.47
Esbjerg is 0.38 points better than HB Koge in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Lyngby
2.16
Aarhus Fremad
1.62
Aalborg
1.56
Esbjerg
1.41
B 93
1.38
Hvidovre
1.34
Hillerød
1.31
AC Horsens
1.31
HB Koge
1.31
Hobro
1.25
Kolding IF
1.16
Middelfart
1.00
Esbjerg is 0.09 goals better than HB Koge in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.31).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
AC Horsens
0.84
Lyngby
1.12
Aarhus Fremad
1.16
Hvidovre
1.22
Kolding IF
1.25
Hobro
1.34
Hillerød
1.34
Esbjerg
1.34
Aalborg
1.47
HB Koge
1.50
B 93
1.81
Middelfart
2.41
Esbjerg is 0.16 goals better than HB Koge in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

EsbjergEsbjerg

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W03L01L11D00D00D02L31W00D01LH·HVI15/05A·ODE23/05H·LYN20/07H·HVI26/07A·MID02/08A·MAR06/08H·KOL09/08A·B 915/08H·AAL19/08A·HOB24/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.800.270.800.800.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.570.820.270.800.920.85
vs Weaker (2)0.000.50--0.000.50
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HB KogeHB Koge

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L10W10W01L03L01L01L00D03LH·B 916/05A·HOB22/05H·HOB18/07H·AAR25/07A·HVI29/07A·KOL01/08H·AAL10/08A·MID16/08H·B 919/08A·HIL23/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.770.600.470.401.07
vs Stronger (2)1.500.50--1.500.50
vs Similar (25)0.440.880.640.500.181.36
vs Weaker (3)0.330.000.000.000.500.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Esbjerg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

EsbjergEsbjerg

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W21W01L10W10W21W00D20W10W01LH·HVI15/05A·ODE23/05H·LYN20/07H·HVI26/07A·MID02/08A·MAR06/08H·KOL09/08A·B 915/08H·AAL19/08A·HOB24/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.730.470.871.000.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.750.750.470.871.080.62
vs Weaker (2)0.500.50--0.500.50
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HB KogeHB Koge

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D10W11D32W10W01L21W01L10WH·B 916/05A·HOB22/05H·HOB18/07H·AAR25/07A·HVI29/07A·KOL01/08H·AAL10/08A·MID16/08H·B 919/08A·HIL23/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.700.601.001.000.40
vs Stronger (2)1.000.00--1.000.00
vs Similar (25)0.840.800.641.071.090.45
vs Weaker (3)0.330.330.000.000.500.50
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Esbjerg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.6%-------âś“ Hit
Under 3.572.3%-------âś— Miss

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LYN (22)
€13m
AH (27)
€10m
AAL (24)
€10m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
Esbjerg's squad is €2m more valuable than HB Koge's (€7m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (9)
€4m
LYN (5)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
Esbjerg's attack is €1m more valuable than HB Koge's (€2m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LYN (8)
€5m
AH (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
Esbjerg and HB Koge have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
LYN (9)
€5m
AH (12)
€4m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
Esbjerg and HB Koge have a similar defence value (both €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
ESB wins
0
Draws
0
HK wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Esbjerg vs HB Koge · H/A from ESB
DateH/AGameScore
28/02/25AHB Koge Vs ESB0-2
24/08/24HESB Vs HB Koge4-1

EsbjergEsbjerg

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/08/25AHobro Vs ESB2-0
19/08/25HESB Vs Aalborg1-0
15/08/25AB 93 Vs ESB1-5
09/08/25HESB Vs Kolding IF0-2
06/08/25AMarienlyst Vs ESB1-2
02/08/25AMiddelfart Vs ESB0-1
26/07/25HESB Vs Hvidovre2-1
20/07/25HESB Vs Lyngby0-2
23/05/25AOdense Vs ESB4-2
15/05/25HESB Vs Hvidovre2-0

HB KogeHB Koge

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/08/25AHillerød Vs HK3-1
19/08/25HHK Vs B 930-1
16/08/25AMiddelfart Vs HK2-2
10/08/25HHK Vs Aalborg0-2
01/08/25AKolding IF Vs HK3-1
29/07/25AHvidovre Vs HK3-3
25/07/25HHK Vs Aarhus Fremad2-1
18/07/25HHK Vs Hobro2-0
22/05/25AHobro Vs HK2-1
16/05/25HHK Vs B 932-1

đź“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Esbjerg
Esbjerg
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWL1.48
HomeWLWLW1.19
AwayLWWWL1.74
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%38%57%
AVG goals3.342.763.87
Over 1.5 %86%76%96%
Over 2.5 %61%43%78%
Over 3.5 %34%24%43%
Scored1.751.142.30
Conceded1.591.621.57
BTTS52%38%65%
Clean Sheet18%14%22%
Corners---
Cards---
HB Koge
HB Koge
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL1.16
HomeWWWLL1.21
AwayLDLDL1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%38%23%
AVG goals2.962.833.08
Over 1.5 %82%79%85%
Over 2.5 %48%42%54%
Over 3.5 %32%29%35%
Scored1.241.081.38
Conceded1.721.751.69
BTTS54%38%69%
Clean Sheet20%17%23%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LyngbyLyngby3260
56%
1.9
6936+33
3.3
91%
69%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
3552.21.1
-
2AC HorsensAC Horsens3254
47%
1.7
4227+15
2.2
56%
41%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.30.8
-
3EsbjergEsbjerg3252
47%
1.6
4543+2
2.8
75%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.41.3
-
4HillerødHillerød3250
41%
1.6
4243-1
2.7
81%
59%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.31.3
-
5HvidovreHvidovre3246
34%
1.4
4339+4
2.6
81%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.31.2
-
6AalborgAalborg3246
38%
1.4
5047+3
3.0
78%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
2261.61.5
-
7Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad3244
34%
1.4
5237+15
2.8
72%
53%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.61.2
-
8HobroHobro3242
34%
1.3
4043-3
2.6
72%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.21.3
-
9HB KogeHB Koge3240
34%
1.2
4248-6
2.8
81%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.31.5
-
10Kolding IFKolding IF3238
31%
1.2
3740-3
2.4
72%
50%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.21.2
-
11B 93B 933237
31%
1.2
4458-14
3.2
81%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
12MiddelfartMiddelfart3215
9%
0.5
3277-45
3.4
78%
72%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.4
-
Denmark: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →

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