Esbjerg are favoured to win, with a 47 % chance of taking the match home, 27 % for a draw and 26 % for HB Koge to triumph. The model expects 2.7 goals on average, but the most likely total is 2 goals, a 26 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13 % chance. Esbjerg, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.54 goals scored and 1.08 conceded. HB Koge, on the road, averages 1.15 scored and 1.92 conceded against similar opposition. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3 %), Under 6.5 (97.9 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.2 %), Under 5.5 (94.1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (92.2 %), Home +2 handicap (89.4 %), Away under 2.5 goals (89.4 %) and Under 4.5 (85.9 %). The home side’s recent form shows three straight defeats before a win, while the away side has five losses and one draw.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Esbjerg win
43.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
HB Koge win
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Esbjerg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.50
1.50
1.29
1.88
1.69
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
2.00
4.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.56
1.40
1.36
0.91
1.71
1.79
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
1.33
2.00
2.00
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HB Koge
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.53
1.21
1.43
1.06
1.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (29)
1.17
1.48
1.21
1.43
1.13
1.53
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.3%
Under 2.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.8%
Under 3.5
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.0%
No
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
10.1%
0-0
9.3%
2-1
8.9%
2-0
8.1%
0-1
7.6%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
4.9%
Esbjerg goals ↓
HB Koge goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
7.6%
4.9%
1.8%
0.5%
1
10%
14%
6.9%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.1%
8.9%
4.9%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.8%
4.2%
2.3%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.4%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Esbjerg goals (down), columns = HB Koge goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hvidovre
2.33
Vejle
2.33
Hobro
2.00
Aarhus Fremad
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Aalborg
1.33
Kolding IF
1.00
AB Copenhagen
1.00
Hillerød
0.67
Esbjerg
0.67
HB Koge
0.33
Esbjerg is 0.33 points better than HB Koge in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 0.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vejle
2.67
Hillerød
1.67
Hvidovre
1.67
Hobro
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Kolding IF
1.33
AB Copenhagen
1.33
Esbjerg
1.33
Aarhus Fremad
1.17
Vendsyssel FF
1.17
Aalborg
0.83
HB Koge
0.50
Esbjerg is 0.83 goals better than HB Koge in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 0.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Fredericia
0.67
Aarhus Fremad
0.83
Hvidovre
0.83
Aalborg
1.17
AB Copenhagen
1.17
Hobro
1.33
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Kolding IF
1.50
Vejle
1.67
HB Koge
2.00
Hillerød
2.00
Esbjerg
2.17
Esbjerg is 0.17 goals worse than HB Koge in terms of goals conceded per game (2.17 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Esbjerg or Draw
72.0%
Avg Implied -
43%
29%
28%
covers Esbjerg + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg or HB Koge
71.1%
Avg Implied -
43%
29%
28%
covers Esbjerg + HB Koge
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or HB Koge
57.0%
Avg Implied -
43%
29%
28%
covers Draw + HB Koge
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Esbjerg over/under 0.5
Over
75.9%
Under
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 1.5
Over
41.6%
Under
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 2.5
Over
17.2%
Under
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 0.5
Over
66.8%
Under
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 1.5
Over
30.2%
Under
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 2.5
Over
10.0%
Under
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Esbjerg, so a minus line means Esbjerg give that many goals of a start and HB Koge receive them. At -1, Esbjerg must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Esbjerg win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Esbjerg)
Esbjerg -2
8.1%
Draw -2
13.2%
HB Koge +2
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Esbjerg)
Esbjerg -1
21.3%
Draw -1
21.7%
HB Koge +1
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Esbjerg)
Esbjerg +1
72.0%
Draw +1
16.6%
HB Koge -1
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Esbjerg)
Esbjerg +2
88.6%
Draw +2
8.0%
HB Koge -2
3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Esbjerg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
0.64
0.71
1.06
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.48
0.55
0.45
0.93
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HB Koge
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.57
0.50
0.56
0.69
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
0.59
0.62
0.57
0.50
0.60
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.9%
Under 0.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
30.4%
Under 1.5
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.6%
Under 2.5
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Esbjerg over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.7%
Under
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.9%
Under
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Esbjerg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.90
0.86
0.57
0.81
1.19
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.92
0.82
0.45
0.79
1.29
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HB Koge
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.64
0.93
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (29)
0.59
0.86
0.64
0.93
0.53
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.1%
Under 0.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.7%
Under 1.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.3%
Under 2.5
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Esbjerg over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.3%
Under
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.8%
Under
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.4%
Under
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (24)
€10m
VEJ (22)
€9m
FF (17)
€8m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
VF (3)
€1m
AC (3)
€1m
Esbjerg's squad is €2m more valuable than HB Koge's (€7m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (7)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
AC (1)
€0m
Esbjerg's attack is €1m more valuable than HB Koge's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (5)
€3m
VEJ (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
Esbjerg and HB Koge have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
VEJ (9)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
VF (0)
€0m
Esbjerg and HB Koge have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Denmark: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →