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Esbjerg vs Hobro Result & Analysis

Date: 15/08/2026
Time: 12:00
Final 1-2
Esbjerg
Esbjerg
Vs
33%
30%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hobro
Hobro
Denmark: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

This match between Esbjerg and Hobro in the Denmark: 1. Division is finely balanced, with Esbjerg unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including a 3-2 win over Hillerød, while Hobro is on a 2-game winning run, having beaten AB Copenhagen 1-0. Despite this, the model predicts an away win for Hobro, with a probability of 37%.

The expected number of goals in this match is 2.4, with the most likely total goals being 2. The model's selection for the most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 14.3%.

Esbjerg has scored an average of 1.2 goals at home, conceding 0.7, while Hobro has scored 1.17 goals away and conceded 1.25 against similar opponents. The model's selections include Under 3.5, with a probability of 77.7%, and Over 1.5, with a probability of 70.6%.

The probabilities for the match result are: Esbjerg win 33%, draw 30%, and Hobro win 37%. The model's selections are: Under 3.5 (77.7%), Over 1.5 (70.6%), and no other selections are mentioned.

Results analysis

The win extends Esbjerg's recent run of inconsistency, having suffered two consecutive defeats. However, they were unable to prevent Hobro from securing a 1-2 victory, resulting in an away win. The model's selection, an away win, was correct, given the pre-match probability of 36%. The favourite to win was indeed Hobro, as predicted by the model. The model's call on Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 77.6%, while Over 1.5 goals also came in, with a probability of 70.7%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Esbjerg win✗ Miss
33.4%
Avg Implied 46.7% · @ 1.96
Edge
-13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.00
Betano
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Dafabet
1.97
1xBet
1.97
Draw✗ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied 25.7% · @ 3.57
Edge
+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.81
BetVictor
3.70
1xBet
3.68
Marathonbet
3.68
Betano
3.65
Hobro win✓ Hit
36.4%
Avg Implied 27.5% · @ 3.34
Edge
+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Pinnacle
3.42
BetVictor
3.40
Betano
3.40

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

EsbjergEsbjerg

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-605L01L30W11D41W21W11D32W60W12LA·LYN24/04H·AC 30/04H·KOL09/05A·HIL16/05A·HVI25/05H·LYN31/05H·KOL25/07A·HIL01/08A·BOG06/08A·HVI09/08
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.331.571.141.561.50
vs Stronger (2)1.003.002.004.000.002.00
vs Similar (25)1.361.281.330.831.381.69
vs Weaker (3)3.670.674.002.003.500.00
Clean sheet %27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HobroHobro

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W11D33D03L10W32W12L21W04L10WA·AAR26/04A·AAL01/05H·B 908/05H·AAR14/05A·HB 24/05H·MID30/05H·AAR26/07A·VEN02/08H·VEN05/08H·AB 08/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.531.121.941.571.07
vs Stronger (1)1.004.001.004.00--
vs Similar (23)1.131.521.081.751.181.27
vs Weaker (6)2.171.171.332.003.000.33
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.7%
@ 1.19-7.5%
Under 1.5
29.3%
@ 4.27+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
888Sport
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.57
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.40
10Bet
4.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.3%
@ 1.64-13.8%
Under 2.5
56.7%
@ 2.18+13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.65
888Sport
1.65
Bet365
1.65
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
Under
Pinnacle
2.27
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.21
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.4%
@ 2.55-14.0%
Under 3.5
77.6%
@ 1.46+14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
BetVictor
2.60
888Sport
2.60
10Bet
2.60
Unibet
2.60
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Betfair
1.47
BetVictor
1.45
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.4%
@ 1.56-8.8%
No
49.6%
@ 2.26+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.60
888Sport
1.60
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
No
Betfair
2.30
1xBet
2.30
BetVictor
2.30
Betano
2.27
Marathonbet
2.26

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%@ 6.52+7.6%
0-0
10.3%@ 12.20+6.7%
0-1
9.8%@ 11.16+5.8%
1-0
9.2%@ 8.44+4.0%
1-2 ✓
8.1%@ 10.23+3.8%
2-1
7.7%@ 7.72+2.0%
0-2
6.9%@ 17.52+4.3%
2-0
6.2%@ 9.97+1.8%
Esbjerg goals ↓
Hobro goals →
01234
010%9.8%6.9%2.8%0.9%
19.2%14%8.1%3.3%1.0%
26.2%7.7%4.7%2.0%0.6%
32.4%3.0%1.9%0.8%0.2%
40.7%0.9%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Esbjerg goals (down), columns = Hobro goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hvidovre
2.33
Vejle
2.33
Hobro
2.00
FC Fredericia
1.50
Aarhus Fremad
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Aalborg
1.33
Kolding IF
1.00
AB Copenhagen
1.00
Esbjerg
0.67
Hillerød
0.67
HB Koge
0.33
Esbjerg is 1.33 points worse than Hobro in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Vejle
2.67
Hvidovre
1.67
Hillerød
1.67
FC Fredericia
1.50
Hobro
1.50
Kolding IF
1.33
AB Copenhagen
1.33
Esbjerg
1.33
Aarhus Fremad
1.17
Vendsyssel FF
1.17
Aalborg
0.83
HB Koge
0.50
Esbjerg is 0.17 goals worse than Hobro in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Fredericia
0.67
Hvidovre
0.83
Aarhus Fremad
0.83
AB Copenhagen
1.17
Aalborg
1.17
Hobro
1.33
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Kolding IF
1.50
Vejle
1.67
HB Koge
2.00
Hillerød
2.00
Esbjerg
2.17
Esbjerg is 0.83 goals worse than Hobro in terms of goals conceded per game (2.17 vs 1.33).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

EsbjergEsbjerg

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L01L10W00D10W01L11D20W40W00DA·LYN24/04H·AC 30/04H·KOL09/05A·HIL16/05A·HVI25/05H·LYN31/05H·KOL25/07A·HIL01/08A·BOG06/08A·HVI09/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.570.640.640.880.50
vs Stronger (2)0.502.001.003.000.001.00
vs Similar (25)0.600.480.500.420.690.54
vs Weaker (3)2.330.332.001.002.500.00
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HobroHobro

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L22D01L10W30W12L21W03L00DA·AAR26/04A·AAL01/05H·B 908/05H·AAR14/05A·HB 24/05H·MID30/05H·AAR26/07A·VEN02/08H·VEN05/08H·AB 08/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.800.620.940.790.64
vs Stronger (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Similar (23)0.520.830.580.920.450.73
vs Weaker (6)1.500.671.001.002.000.33
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Esbjerg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

EsbjergEsbjerg

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L00D20W11D31W20W00D12L20W12LA·LYN24/04H·AC 30/04H·KOL09/05A·HIL16/05A·HVI25/05H·LYN31/05H·KOL25/07A·HIL01/08A·BOG06/08A·HVI09/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.770.930.500.691.00
vs Stronger (2)0.501.001.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (25)0.760.800.830.420.691.15
vs Weaker (3)1.330.332.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HobroHobro

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W11D02L00D02L00D00D01L10WA·AAR26/04A·AAL01/05H·B 908/05H·AAR14/05A·HB 24/05H·MID30/05H·AAR26/07A·VEN02/08H·VEN05/08H·AB 08/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.730.501.000.790.43
vs Stronger (1)1.003.001.003.00--
vs Similar (23)0.610.700.500.830.730.55
vs Weaker (6)0.670.500.331.001.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Esbjerg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.577.6%1.46
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Betfair
1.47
BetVictor
1.45
+14.0%✓ Hit
Over 1.570.7%1.19
Betano
1.21
888Sport
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.20
-7.5%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (24)
€10m
VEJ (22)
€9m
FF (17)
€8m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
VF (3)
€1m
AC (3)
€1m
Esbjerg and Hobro have a similar squad value (both €7m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (7)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
AC (1)
€0m
Esbjerg and Hobro have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (5)
€3m
VEJ (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
Esbjerg and Hobro have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
VEJ (9)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
VF (0)
€0m
Esbjerg and Hobro have a similar defence value (both €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
ESB wins
1
Draws
1
HOB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Esbjerg vs Hobro · H/A from ESB
DateH/AGameScore
16/10/25HESB Vs Hobro1-1
24/08/25AHobro Vs ESB2-0
03/11/24HESB Vs Hobro3-2
26/07/24AHobro Vs ESB3-6

EsbjergEsbjerg

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/08/26AHvidovre Vs ESB2-1
06/08/26ABogense Vs ESB0-6
01/08/26AHillerød Vs ESB2-3
25/07/26HESB Vs Kolding IF1-1
31/05/26HESB Vs Lyngby2-1
25/05/26AHvidovre Vs ESB1-4
16/05/26AHillerød Vs ESB1-1
09/05/26HESB Vs Kolding IF3-0
30/04/26HESB Vs AC Horsens0-1
24/04/26ALyngby Vs ESB5-0

HobroHobro

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/26HHOB Vs AB Copenhagen1-0
05/08/26HHOB Vs Vendsyssel FF0-4
02/08/26AVendsyssel FF Vs HOB1-2
26/07/26HHOB Vs Aarhus Fremad1-2
30/05/26HHOB Vs Middelfart3-2
24/05/26AHB Koge Vs HOB0-1
14/05/26HHOB Vs Aarhus Fremad0-3
08/05/26HHOB Vs B 933-3
01/05/26AAalborg Vs HOB1-1
26/04/26AAarhus Fremad Vs HOB0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Esbjerg
Esbjerg
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWL1.46
HomeDLWWD1.57
AwayDWWWL1.37
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%43%41%
AVG goals2.922.703.11
Over 1.5 %78%74%81%
Over 2.5 %50%43%56%
Over 3.5 %30%26%33%
Scored1.421.301.52
Conceded1.501.391.59
BTTS54%48%59%
Clean Sheet22%26%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Hobro
Hobro
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLW1.40
HomeLWLLW1.12
AwayWWDWW1.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%28%48%
AVG goals2.662.642.68
Over 1.5 %76%68%84%
Over 2.5 %46%52%40%
Over 3.5 %24%32%16%
Scored1.261.081.44
Conceded1.401.561.24
BTTS46%52%40%
Clean Sheet32%28%36%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VejleVejle614
67%
2.3
1610+6
4.3
83%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3242.71.7
-
2HvidovreHvidovre614
67%
2.3
105+5
2.5
83%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.70.8
-
3HobroHobro612
67%
2.0
98+1
2.8
83%
83%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.51.3
-
4FC FredericiaFC Fredericia69
33%
1.5
94+5
2.2
83%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
2331.50.7
-
5Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad69
33%
1.5
75+2
2.0
67%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.20.8
-
6Vendsyssel FFVendsyssel FF68
33%
1.3
78-1
2.5
83%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.3
-
7AalborgAalborg68
33%
1.3
57-2
2.0
67%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
2260.81.2
-
8AB CopenhagenAB Copenhagen66
17%
1.0
87+1
2.5
83%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.2
-
9Kolding IFKolding IF66
17%
1.0
89-1
2.8
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.31.5
-
10HillerødHillerød64
17%
0.7
1012-2
3.7
67%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.72.0
-
11EsbjergEsbjerg64
17%
0.7
813-5
3.5
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.32.2
-
12HB KogeHB Koge62
0%
0.3
312-9
2.5
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.52.0
-
Denmark: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →

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