Esbjerg and Hvidovre face a tightly contested fixture, with the model favouring an away win. The expected goal total sits at 2.3, centring on a 2-goal outcome that is 28% likely. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.5% chance. Esbjerg, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 1.36 goals scored and 0.91 conceded, while Hvidovre, on the road, nets 1.33 and concedes 0.73. The match-result probabilities are 33% for a home win, 31% for a draw and 37% for an away win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.2%), Under 5.5 (96.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.5%), Under 4.5 (91.2%), Home under 2.5 goals (89.5%) and Away under 2.5 goals (87.7%). The model’s selections highlight a low-scoring encounter, with both sides likely to keep the total below three goals.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Esbjerg win
32.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre win
36.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Esbjerg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.50
1.50
1.29
1.88
1.69
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
2.00
4.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.56
1.40
1.36
0.91
1.71
1.79
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
1.33
2.00
2.00
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Hvidovre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hvidovre
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.13
1.57
1.57
1.31
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.43
1.11
1.54
1.54
1.33
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.1%
Under 1.5
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
41.3%
Under 2.5
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
20.8%
Under 3.5
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.7%
No
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.0%
0-1
10.4%
1-0
9.6%
1-2
8.0%
2-1
7.4%
0-2
7.1%
2-0
6.1%
Esbjerg goals ↓
Hvidovre goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
10%
7.1%
2.9%
0.9%
1
9.6%
14%
8.0%
3.2%
1.0%
2
6.1%
7.4%
4.5%
1.8%
0.5%
3
2.3%
2.8%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Esbjerg goals (down), columns = Hvidovre goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hvidovre
2.33
Vejle
2.33
Hobro
2.00
Aarhus Fremad
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Aalborg
1.33
Kolding IF
1.00
AB Copenhagen
1.00
Hillerød
0.67
Esbjerg
0.67
HB Koge
0.33
Esbjerg is 1.67 points worse than Hvidovre in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 2.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vejle
2.67
Hillerød
1.67
Hvidovre
1.67
Hobro
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Kolding IF
1.33
AB Copenhagen
1.33
Esbjerg
1.33
Aarhus Fremad
1.17
Vendsyssel FF
1.17
Aalborg
0.83
HB Koge
0.50
Esbjerg is 0.33 goals worse than Hvidovre in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Fredericia
0.67
Aarhus Fremad
0.83
Hvidovre
0.83
Aalborg
1.17
AB Copenhagen
1.17
Hobro
1.33
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Kolding IF
1.50
Vejle
1.67
HB Koge
2.00
Hillerød
2.00
Esbjerg
2.17
Esbjerg is 1.33 goals worse than Hvidovre in terms of goals conceded per game (2.17 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Esbjerg or Draw
63.3%
Avg Implied -
33%
31%
37%
covers Esbjerg + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg or Hvidovre
69.3%
Avg Implied -
33%
31%
37%
covers Esbjerg + Hvidovre
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hvidovre
67.4%
Avg Implied -
33%
31%
37%
covers Draw + Hvidovre
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Esbjerg over/under 0.5
Over
67.5%
Under
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 1.5
Over
31.0%
Under
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 2.5
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 0.5
Over
70.2%
Under
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 1.5
Over
34.1%
Under
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 2.5
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Esbjerg, so a minus line means Esbjerg give that many goals of a start and Hvidovre receive them. At -1, Esbjerg must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Esbjerg win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Esbjerg)
Esbjerg -2
4.3%
Draw -2
9.4%
Hvidovre +2
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Esbjerg)
Esbjerg -1
13.7%
Draw -1
18.9%
Hvidovre +1
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Esbjerg)
Esbjerg +1
63.3%
Draw +1
20.4%
Hvidovre -1
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Esbjerg)
Esbjerg +2
83.7%
Draw +2
10.9%
Hvidovre -2
5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Esbjerg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
0.64
0.71
1.06
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.48
0.55
0.45
0.93
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Hvidovre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hvidovre
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.79
0.50
0.50
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.57
0.43
0.69
0.54
0.47
0.33
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Esbjerg over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Esbjerg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.90
0.86
0.57
0.81
1.19
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.92
0.82
0.45
0.79
1.29
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Hvidovre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hvidovre
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.73
0.79
1.07
0.81
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.86
0.68
0.85
1.00
0.87
0.40
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Esbjerg over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hvidovre · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tobias Thomsen20%
Lirim Qamili18%
Mads Kaalund14%
Christian Jakobsen13%
Andreas Smed12%
Simon Makienok11%
Jeffrey Adjei-Broni4%
Magnus Fredslund4%
Matti Lund Nielsen0%
Marco Ramkilde0%
Adrian Kappenberger0%
Jonas Gemmer0%
Nikolaj Geertsen0%
Mathias Gehrt0%
Filip Đukić0%
Malte Kiilerich0%
Daniel Stenderup0%
Martin Spelmann0%
Matti Olsen0%
Philip Rejnhold0%
Thomas Jorgensen0%
Marcus Lindberg0%
Ahmed Iljazovski0%
Marc Nielsen0%
Mathias Andreasen0%
Magnus Petersen0%
Marius Papuga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Philip Rejnhold38%
Jonas Gemmer33%
Nikolaj Geertsen30%
Ahmed Iljazovski21%
Martin Spelmann19%
Christian Jakobsen17%
Magnus Fredslund15%
Lirim Qamili14%
Marcus Lindberg14%
Marc Nielsen14%
Matti Olsen14%
Tobias Thomsen13%
Jeffrey Adjei-Broni13%
Malte Kiilerich11%
Filip Đukić8%
Andreas Smed8%
Mathias Andreasen7%
Thomas Jorgensen7%
Simon Makienok5%
Matti Lund Nielsen0%
Marco Ramkilde0%
Adrian Kappenberger0%
Mads Kaalund0%
Mathias Gehrt0%
Daniel Stenderup0%
Magnus Petersen0%
Marius Papuga0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Magnus Fredslund15%
Christian Jakobsen10%
Marc Nielsen10%
Marcus Lindberg7%
Ahmed Iljazovski7%
Tobias Thomsen7%
Simon Makienok5%
Jeffrey Adjei-Broni4%
Andreas Smed4%
Jonas Gemmer4%
Lirim Qamili4%
Matti Lund Nielsen0%
Marco Ramkilde0%
Adrian Kappenberger0%
Nikolaj Geertsen0%
Mads Kaalund0%
Mathias Gehrt0%
Filip Đukić0%
Malte Kiilerich0%
Daniel Stenderup0%
Martin Spelmann0%
Matti Olsen0%
Philip Rejnhold0%
Thomas Jorgensen0%
Mathias Andreasen0%
Magnus Petersen0%
Marius Papuga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tobias Thomsen27%
Lirim Qamili21%
Andreas Smed8%
Thomas Jorgensen7%
Simon Makienok5%
Magnus Fredslund4%
Martin Spelmann4%
Christian Jakobsen3%
Matti Lund Nielsen0%
Marco Ramkilde0%
Adrian Kappenberger0%
Jonas Gemmer0%
Nikolaj Geertsen0%
Mads Kaalund0%
Mathias Gehrt0%
Filip Đukić0%
Malte Kiilerich0%
Daniel Stenderup0%
Matti Olsen0%
Philip Rejnhold0%
Marcus Lindberg0%
Ahmed Iljazovski0%
Marc Nielsen0%
Mathias Andreasen0%
Magnus Petersen0%
Marius Papuga0%
Jeffrey Adjei-Broni0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (24)
€10m
VEJ (22)
€9m
FF (17)
€8m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
VF (3)
€1m
AC (3)
€1m
Esbjerg's squad is €1m more valuable than Hvidovre's (€7m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (7)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
AC (1)
€0m
Esbjerg and Hvidovre have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (5)
€3m
VEJ (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
Esbjerg and Hvidovre have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
VEJ (9)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
VF (0)
€0m
Esbjerg and Hvidovre have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Denmark: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vejle
Hobro
FC Fredericia
Aarhus Fremad
Vendsyssel FF
Aalborg
AB Copenhagen
Kolding IF
Hillerød
HB Koge