Pythia gives Espanyol a 37% win probability against Real Sociedad in the Spain: La Liga on 2026-05-23, with 29% for the draw and 33% for Real Sociedad. The model estimates around 2.5 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.0%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (91%), Over 2.5 cards (89%), Over 21.5 fouls (82%), Over 3.5 cards (76%).
Results analysis
Espanyol finished 1-1 against Real Sociedad (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 37% home win, 29% draw and 33% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (91%), Over 2.5 cards (89%), Over 21.5 fouls (82%), Over 3.5 cards (76%), Under 3.5 (75%), Over 1.5 (73%), Under 11.5 corners (70%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Espanyol win✗ Miss
37.2%
Avg Implied 38.9% · @ 2.40
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
29.3%
Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.41
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad win✗ Miss
33.5%
Avg Implied 33.8% · @ 2.76
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Espanyol
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.50
0.86
1.29
1.25
1.69
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
3.00
0.00
2.00
1.33
4.00
vs Similar (24)
1.17
1.12
1.09
1.09
1.23
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Sociedad
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.63
2.06
1.69
1.29
1.57
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
2.25
1.50
1.00
1.50
3.50
vs Similar (12)
1.67
1.83
2.29
2.14
0.80
1.40
vs Weaker (14)
1.79
1.29
2.00
1.43
1.57
1.14
Clean sheet %
7% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Espanyol) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.3%
Under 1.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.6%
@ 1.80-5.2%
Under 2.5
53.4%
@ 1.93+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.0%
Under 3.5
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.9%
No
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.0%
0-0
9.2%
1-0
9.1%
0-1
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
6.0%
Espanyol goals ↓
Real Sociedad goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
8.5%
6.0%
2.4%
0.8%
1
9.1%
14%
7.8%
3.2%
1.0%
2
6.8%
8.3%
5.1%
2.1%
0.6%
3
2.9%
3.6%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.0%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Espanyol goals (down), columns = Real Sociedad goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Sevilla
1.13
Levante
1.11
Mallorca
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Girona
1.08
Oviedo
0.76
Espanyol and Real Sociedad are level in average points per game (both 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Mallorca
1.24
Valencia
1.21
Sevilla
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Espanyol
1.13
Athletic Club
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Girona
1.03
Getafe
0.84
Oviedo
0.68
Espanyol is 0.42 goals worse than Real Sociedad in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 1.55).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Girona
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Mallorca
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Oviedo
1.58
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Espanyol is 0.16 goals better than Real Sociedad in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Girona
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Mallorca
47%
Osasuna
47%
Oviedo
46%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Espanyol is 8.9 percentage points worse than Real Sociedad in terms of average possession (42% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Espanyol
For 5.6 · Against 6.3 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.6 · Against 3.1 · Total 6.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.9 · Against 13.4 · Total 28.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Real Sociedad
For 5.1 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.8 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 14.2 · Total 27.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Espanyol
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.0
10.0
4.8
5.0
4.5
25.6
26.3
24.9
vs Stronger (12)
9.0
7.7
10.3
4.2
4.2
4.3
26.2
24.3
28.2
vs Similar (38)
10.3
10.7
9.9
4.9
5.3
4.5
25.4
26.9
23.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
46%
58%
64%
67%
62%
74%
79%
69%
% under line
48%
54%
42%
36%
33%
38%
26%
21%
31%
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Sociedad
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.5
10.0
4.8
4.8
4.8
25.8
27.0
24.6
vs Stronger (9)
11.7
14.0
10.5
3.9
5.7
3.0
19.1
23.0
17.2
vs Similar (19)
9.7
9.4
10.1
5.2
4.7
5.8
26.2
26.3
26.0
vs Weaker (22)
10.1
10.6
9.6
4.9
4.6
5.2
28.2
28.8
27.6
% over line
56%
60%
52%
62%
72%
52%
72%
84%
60%
% under line
44%
40%
48%
38%
28%
48%
28%
16%
40%
This opponent (Espanyol) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Real Madrid
10.7
Atletico Madrid
10.5
Barcelona
10.4
Real Sociedad
10.2
Mallorca
10.2
Alaves
10.1
Espanyol
10.0
Levante
10.0
Girona
9.7
Valencia
9.6
Athletic Club
9.2
Sevilla
9.2
Oviedo
9.2
Real Betis
9.0
Osasuna
8.9
Villarreal
8.7
Getafe
8.6
Elche
8.5
Celta Vigo
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rayo Vallecano
5.5
Getafe
5.5
Sevilla
5.2
Alaves
5.1
Real Sociedad
4.9
Levante
4.9
Osasuna
4.9
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Real Betis
4.8
Valencia
4.6
Elche
4.6
Celta Vigo
4.6
Athletic Club
4.4
Mallorca
4.4
Barcelona
4.3
Girona
4.3
Villarreal
4.3
Oviedo
4.3
Atletico Madrid
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.0
Alaves
28.7
Elche
27.5
Sevilla
27.1
Real Sociedad
25.8
Espanyol
25.6
Oviedo
25.2
Athletic Club
25.1
Levante
25.0
Osasuna
24.8
Mallorca
24.7
Rayo Vallecano
24.6
Girona
24.6
Villarreal
24.5
Valencia
24.2
Real Betis
24.2
Celta Vigo
23.9
Real Madrid
23.8
Barcelona
21.9
Atletico Madrid
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
53.7%
Under 9.5
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
75.6%
Under 3.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
81.7%
Under 21.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Espanyol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.57
0.29
0.50
0.31
0.62
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (24)
0.33
0.46
0.36
0.55
0.31
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Sociedad
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
0.88
0.62
0.57
0.79
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.83
0.86
0.86
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.50
1.00
0.57
0.57
0.43
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Espanyol) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Espanyol over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Espanyol over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Espanyol over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Spain: La Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
Real Betis
Celta Vigo
Getafe
Rayo Vallecano
Valencia
Athletic Club
Elche
Alaves
Sevilla
Osasuna
Mallorca
Levante
Girona
Oviedo