The contest between Espanyol and Sevilla is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but no result is a clear certainty. The probabilities are 39% for Espanyol, 28% for a draw and 33% for Sevilla. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 with a 13.3% chance. Espanyol, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Sevilla on the road averages 1.17 scored and 1.58 conceded. The suggested selections are: Under 7.5 (99.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.3% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.9% with a 5% edge), Under 6.5 (97.8%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.4% with a 4% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (95.6% with no edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.0% with a 4% edge) and Home under 3.5 goals (94.3% with a 1% edge). Espanyol’s recent form shows a 2-game losing streak, while Sevilla are coming off a defeat, adding to the uncertainty.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Espanyol win
38.7%
Avg Implied 41.4% · @ 2.29
Edge
-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.35
Dafabet
2.33
Superbet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.31
Betano
2.30
Draw
28.0%
Avg Implied 30.2% · @ 3.13
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.33
Pinnacle
3.31
Marathonbet
3.28
Dafabet
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Sevilla win
33.3%
Avg Implied 28.3% · @ 3.34
Edge
+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.50
1xBet
3.46
Pinnacle
3.43
Dafabet
3.40
Superbet
3.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Espanyol
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.50
1.07
1.21
1.12
1.75
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
2.62
0.50
1.75
1.25
3.50
vs Similar (22)
1.18
1.09
1.30
1.00
1.08
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sevilla) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sevilla
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.53
1.13
1.27
1.20
1.80
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.40
1.00
1.67
1.00
3.50
vs Similar (24)
1.17
1.38
1.17
1.17
1.17
1.58
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Espanyol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.9%
@ 1.45+11.9%
Under 1.5
23.1%
@ 2.69-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.46
Superbet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.89
Superbet
2.77
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.70
Unibet
2.70
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.4%
@ 2.40+11.7%
Under 2.5
48.6%
@ 1.58-11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.46
Betfair
2.45
Unibet
2.43
Betano
2.42
Pinnacle
2.42
Under
1xBet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.61
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
Superbet
1.58
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.3%
@ 4.52+8.6%
Under 3.5
70.7%
@ 1.18-8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.80
BetVictor
4.60
Superbet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Under
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Both teams to score
Yes
56.6%
@ 1.99+9.8%
No
43.4%
@ 1.75-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.02
Unibet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betano
2.00
No
Betfair
1.80
Superbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
BetVictor
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%@ 5.83+5.6%
2-1
8.6%@ 8.96+3.6%
1-0
8.1%@ 6.04+0.6%
1-2
7.9%@ 11.28+3.9%
0-0
7.7%@ 7.13+1.4%
0-1
7.3%@ 7.81+1.5%
2-0
6.6%@ 9.60+1.9%
2-2
5.6%@ 15.71+2.8%
Espanyol goals ↓
Sevilla goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
7.3%
5.6%
2.4%
0.8%
1
8.1%
13%
7.9%
3.5%
1.1%
2
6.6%
8.6%
5.6%
2.5%
0.8%
3
3.1%
4.1%
2.7%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.1%
1.5%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Espanyol goals (down), columns = Sevilla goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Espanyol is 0.08 points better than Sevilla in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Espanyol is 0.08 goals worse than Sevilla in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Espanyol is 0.13 goals better than Sevilla in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 1.58).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Espanyol is 8.6 percentage points worse than Sevilla in terms of average possession (42% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Espanyol
For 3.6 · Against 5.9 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 6.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 13.1 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sevilla
For 3.6 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.3 · Against 13.5 · Total 29.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Espanyol
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.2
9.7
4.7
5.1
4.4
26.1
26.3
25.8
vs Stronger (14)
9.1
7.9
10.3
4.6
4.6
4.6
26.9
24.9
28.9
vs Similar (35)
9.7
9.8
9.5
4.9
5.3
4.6
25.7
26.9
24.6
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
49%
38%
60%
64%
71%
58%
76%
79%
72%
% under line
51%
62%
40%
36%
29%
42%
24%
21%
28%
This opponent (Sevilla) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sevilla
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
7.9
10.6
5.2
6.1
4.3
27.9
29.6
26.2
vs Stronger (8)
9.8
9.4
10.3
5.4
6.2
4.0
25.0
25.6
24.0
vs Similar (39)
9.2
7.4
10.7
5.2
5.9
4.6
28.5
30.8
26.5
vs Weaker (3)
9.5
10.0
9.0
4.0
9.0
1.5
28.0
29.0
27.0
% over line
45%
38%
52%
64%
79%
50%
84%
88%
80%
% under line
55%
62%
48%
36%
21%
50%
16%
12%
20%
This opponent (Espanyol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Racing Santander
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.7
Alaves
10.6
Real Sociedad
10.3
Levante
10.1
Valencia
9.8
Athletic Club
9.7
Espanyol
9.6
Sevilla
9.3
Villarreal
9.2
Deportivo La Coruna
9.1
Osasuna
9.1
Malaga
9.0
Real Betis
9.0
Getafe
8.7
Elche
8.3
Celta Vigo
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.3
Getafe
5.6
Rayo Vallecano
5.6
Sevilla
5.2
Malaga
5.2
Real Sociedad
5.1
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Osasuna
5.0
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Alaves
4.8
Celta Vigo
4.7
Levante
4.7
Elche
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Athletic Club
4.6
Real Betis
4.6
Villarreal
4.4
Barcelona
4.3
Atletico Madrid
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.4
Alaves
28.7
Elche
28.1
Sevilla
27.7
Racing Santander
26.8
Real Sociedad
26.6
Espanyol
26.1
Rayo Vallecano
25.6
Athletic Club
25.1
Osasuna
25.0
Celta Vigo
24.9
Villarreal
24.8
Malaga
24.7
Levante
24.4
Valencia
24.3
Real Madrid
23.6
Deportivo La Coruna
23.4
Real Betis
23.3
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.3%
@ 2.33+12.5%
Under 9.5
47.7%
@ 1.54-12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.45
Marathonbet
2.40
Unibet
2.33
1xBet
2.30
Betano
2.25
Under
Superbet
1.65
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.53
Unibet
1.52
1xBet
1.52
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
71.6%
Under 3.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
81.8%
Under 21.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Espanyol or Draw
66.7%
Avg Implied 71.6% · @ 1.31
Edge
-5.0%
39%
28%
33%
covers Espanyol + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.34
William Hil
1.33
Espanyol or Sevilla
72.0%
Avg Implied 70.1% · @ 1.34
Edge
+1.9%
39%
28%
33%
covers Espanyol + Sevilla
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Draw or Sevilla
61.3%
Avg Implied 58.2% · @ 1.61
Edge
+3.1%
39%
28%
33%
covers Draw + Sevilla
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.64
William Hil
1.62
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Espanyol over/under 0.5
Over
75.9%
@ 1.31+4.7%
Under
24.1%
@ 3.24-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Unibet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Under
Pinnacle
3.44
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Marathonbet
3.20
Superbet
3.20
Espanyol over/under 1.5
Over
41.7%
@ 2.53+4.7%
Under
58.3%
@ 1.49-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.61
Marathonbet
2.57
Betfair
2.55
Unibet
2.55
10Bet
2.55
Under
1xBet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
Marathonbet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Espanyol over/under 2.5
Over
17.3%
@ 6.01+1.8%
Under
82.7%
@ 1.10-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
6.10
Superbet
5.90
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Espanyol over/under 3.5
Over
5.7%
@ 14.75-0.8%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.02+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Sevilla over/under 0.5
Over
73.0%
@ 1.49+10.4%
Under
27.0%
@ 2.49-10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.52
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Superbet
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.60
Betfair
2.55
BetVictor
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.50
Sevilla over/under 1.5
Over
37.6%
@ 3.45+10.4%
Under
62.4%
@ 1.29-10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.61
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Unibet
3.40
Under
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Sevilla over/under 2.5
Over
14.5%
@ 9.30+4.4%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.04-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
9.80
1xBet
9.80
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.70
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Sevilla over/under 3.5
Over
4.4%
@ 20.75-0.3%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.01+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Espanyol, so a minus line means Espanyol give that many goals of a start and Sevilla receive them. At -1, Espanyol must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Espanyol win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Espanyol)
Espanyol -2
7.1%
@ 10.27-1.6%
Draw -2
11.8%
@ 5.99-3.0%
Sevilla +2
81.2%
@ 1.16+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Superbet
11.00
Unibet
10.00
10Bet
10.00
Draw
Superbet
6.60
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.40
10Bet
6.25
Away
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Handicap -1 (Espanyol)
Espanyol -1
18.8%
@ 4.50-1.0%
Draw -1
19.8%
@ 3.64-4.8%
Sevilla +1
61.3%
@ 1.61+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
4.60
Unibet
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Draw
Superbet
3.85
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
10Bet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Away
Marathonbet
1.66
Superbet
1.63
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Unibet
1.58
Handicap +1 (Espanyol)
Espanyol +1
66.7%
@ 1.30-2.3%
Draw +1
18.1%
@ 4.64-1.2%
Sevilla -1
15.2%
@ 7.70+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.33
Unibet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.85
Marathonbet
4.70
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Away
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
Handicap +2 (Espanyol)
Espanyol +2
84.8%
@ 1.06-1.2%
Draw +2
9.9%
@ 9.75+0.6%
Sevilla -2
5.3%
@ 19.50+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Draw
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.00
Away
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
21.00
10Bet
19.00
Unibet
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Espanyol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.43
0.57
0.38
0.56
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.00
0.25
0.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.41
0.41
0.50
0.60
0.33
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Sevilla) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sevilla
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.47
0.73
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.80
0.67
1.67
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.38
0.58
0.42
0.50
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Espanyol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.5%
@ 1.50+6.3%
Under 0.5
31.5%
@ 2.48-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.53
Superbet
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Under
Pinnacle
2.56
Betfair
2.55
Superbet
2.52
William Hil
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.9%
@ 3.40+6.3%
Under 1.5
66.1%
@ 1.30-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.55
BetVictor
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Under
Superbet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.9%
@ 9.23+0.8%
Under 2.5
89.1%
@ 1.04-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
10.50
Bet365
10.00
William Hil
10.00
Superbet
9.50
1xBet
9.40
Under
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betano
1.06
William Hil
1.05
10Bet
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Espanyol over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.6%
@ 2.14+3.2%
Under
53.4%
@ 1.65-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.21
Betano
2.20
Marathonbet
2.12
Unibet
2.12
Superbet
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.67
10Bet
1.67
1xBet
1.65
Superbet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Espanyol over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.6%
@ 6.93-2.7%
Under
89.4%
@ 1.07+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.40
Unibet
6.75
Superbet
6.70
10Bet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Espanyol over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.1%
@ 12.50-5.4%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Sevilla over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.2%
@ 2.58+3.1%
Under
60.8%
@ 1.46-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.70
1xBet
2.63
Betano
2.60
Unibet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.55
Under
10Bet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
Sevilla over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.2%
@ 9.25+0.2%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.03-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
9.50
Superbet
9.00
Unibet
9.00
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
Sevilla over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.7%
@ 14.00-5.0%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
38.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Espanyol
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.93
0.64
0.64
0.75
1.19
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.62
0.25
1.25
0.75
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.68
0.80
0.40
0.75
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sevilla) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sevilla
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.67
0.53
0.73
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.60
0.33
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.79
0.79
0.75
0.67
0.83
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Espanyol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.0%
@ 1.33+6.5%
Under 0.5
23.0%
@ 3.16-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Under
Marathonbet
3.30
1xBet
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Betano
3.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.9%
@ 2.51+5.8%
Under 1.5
57.1%
@ 1.48-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.57
Unibet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.54
1xBet
2.54
10Bet
2.50
Under
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.51
1xBet
1.51
Superbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.6%
@ 5.90+2.9%
Under 2.5
81.4%
@ 1.10-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
6.20
Marathonbet
6.00
Unibet
6.00
1xBet
6.00
William Hil
6.00
Under
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.11
10Bet
1.10
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Espanyol over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.0%
@ 1.81+4.7%
Under
44.0%
@ 1.90-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.81
Betano
1.80
Under
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Superbet
1.87
Espanyol over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.1%
@ 5.04+0.7%
Under
80.9%
@ 1.13-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.20
Superbet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.75
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Espanyol over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.0%
@ 10.50-3.9%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.03+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Sevilla over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.5%
@ 2.12+6.7%
Under
49.5%
@ 1.65-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.12
Under
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Sevilla over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.3%
@ 6.93-0.1%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.07+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.30
1xBet
7.30
Superbet
6.70
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Sevilla over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.6%
@ 12.00-4.2%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.01+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.0%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.4%
Under 6.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.2%
Away under 3.5 goals
95.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+0.3%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.0%
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.9%
Home under 3.5 goals
94.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+0.8%
Under 5.5
94.1%
1.01
Superbet
1.02
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-0.5%
Over 19.5 fouls
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
-0.2%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.4%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
+2.7%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.04
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betano
1.06
William Hil
1.05
10Bet
1.05
-0.8%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.7%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
+0.1%
Over 2.5 cards
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.8%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
10Bet
1.05
-4.1%
Away under 2.5 goals
85.5%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-4.4%
Home +2 handicap
84.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-
-1.2%
Home under 2.5 goals
82.7%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
-1.8%
Over 21.5 fouls
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.4%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.11
10Bet
1.10
-2.9%
Away +2 handicap
81.2%
1.16
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
+4.6%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.9%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
-0.7%
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.0%
1.33
William Hil
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
+6.5%
Over 1.5
76.9%
1.45
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.46
Superbet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
+11.9%
Home over 0.5 goals
75.9%
1.31
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Unibet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
+4.7%
Away over 0.5 goals
73.0%
1.49
Pinnacle
1.52
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Superbet
1.50
Unibet
1.50
+10.4%
Home or Away
72.0%
1.34
Superbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.36
+1.9%
Over 3.5 cards
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
71.4%
1.17
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.20
Unibet
1.19
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
-7.2%
Under 3.5
70.7%
1.18
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
-8.6%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Espanyol
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Roberto Fernández67%
Tyrhys Dolan33%
Álex Calatrava33%
Marko Dmitrović0%
Edu Expósito0%
Unai Núñez0%
Urko González0%
Omar El Hilali0%
Javier Hernández0%
Roger Hinojo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Urko González67%
Álex Calatrava67%
Javier Hernández33%
Roger Hinojo33%
Marko Dmitrović0%
Edu Expósito0%
Unai Núñez0%
Tyrhys Dolan0%
Omar El Hilali0%
Roberto Fernández0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Javier Hernández100%
Marko Dmitrović0%
Edu Expósito0%
Unai Núñez0%
Urko González0%
Tyrhys Dolan0%
Álex Calatrava0%
Omar El Hilali0%
Roberto Fernández0%
Roger Hinojo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Edu Expósito33%
Marko Dmitrović0%
Unai Núñez0%
Urko González0%
Tyrhys Dolan0%
Álex Calatrava0%
Omar El Hilali0%
Roberto Fernández0%
Javier Hernández0%
Roger Hinojo0%
Sevilla
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chidera Ejuke33%
Jon Guridi33%
Peque Fernández33%
Isaac Romero33%
Miguel Sierra33%
Odysseas Vlachodimos0%
Gabriel Suazo0%
Lucien Agoumé0%
Juan Iglesias0%
Robbie Ure0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Isaac Romero100%
Gabriel Suazo67%
Jon Guridi67%
Lucien Agoumé33%
Peque Fernández33%
Miguel Sierra33%
Odysseas Vlachodimos0%
Chidera Ejuke0%
Juan Iglesias0%
Robbie Ure0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Isaac Romero33%
Robbie Ure33%
Odysseas Vlachodimos0%
Gabriel Suazo0%
Lucien Agoumé0%
Chidera Ejuke0%
Jon Guridi0%
Juan Iglesias0%
Peque Fernández0%
Miguel Sierra0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Robbie Ure33%
Miguel Sierra33%
Odysseas Vlachodimos0%
Gabriel Suazo0%
Lucien Agoumé0%
Chidera Ejuke0%
Jon Guridi0%
Juan Iglesias0%
Peque Fernández0%
Isaac Romero0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Espanyol's squad is €15m less valuable than Sevilla's (€119m vs €134m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Espanyol's attack is €6m less valuable than Sevilla's (€39m vs €45m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Espanyol's midfield is €8m more valuable than Sevilla's (€31m vs €23m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Espanyol's defence is €17m less valuable than Sevilla's (€48m vs €65m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Osasuna
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
Racing Santander
Real Sociedad
Athletic Club
Getafe
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Malaga