The model predicts an away win for FC Santa Coloma, with a 59% chance of victory, a 25% draw probability, and a 16% chance of a home win. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderate-scoring encounter, yet the most likely total is two goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 0-1 for the visitors, a 12.2% chance. Esperan ça d'Andorra, playing at home against a stronger side, averages only 0.25 goals scored and concedes 2.38, while Santa Coloma on the road against a weaker opponent averages 2.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. The recent form shows the home side on a two-game winning streak, yet the away team has just recovered from two defeats. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.0%), Under 6.5 (98.3%), Under 5.5 (95.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (95.0%), Away +2 handicap (94.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (89.4%) and Under 4.5 (87.7%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Esperança d'Andorra win
15.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma win
59.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Esperança d'Andorra
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.90
0.67
1.60
0.93
2.20
vs Stronger (17)
0.41
2.65
0.25
2.38
0.56
2.89
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.10
1.00
0.83
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.33
2.00
0.00
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Santa Coloma) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Santa Coloma
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.13
1.80
1.33
1.80
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.50
1.00
4.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.44
1.44
1.38
1.75
1.50
1.12
vs Weaker (12)
2.33
0.50
2.50
0.33
2.17
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Esperança d'Andorra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.4%
Under 1.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.2%
Under 2.5
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.4%
Under 3.5
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.5%
No
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
12.2%
1-1
11.9%
0-2
11.8%
1-2
9.6%
0-0
8.5%
0-3
7.0%
1-3
5.7%
1-0
5.0%
Esperança d'Andorra goals ↓
FC Santa Coloma goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
12%
12%
7.0%
3.1%
1
5.0%
12%
9.6%
5.7%
2.6%
2
2.5%
4.4%
3.9%
2.3%
1.0%
3
0.7%
1.2%
1.1%
0.6%
0.3%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Esperança d'Andorra goals (down), columns = FC Santa Coloma goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
2.25
Ranger's
2.00
FC Santa Coloma
1.83
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.42
Casa de Portugal
1.22
Penya Encarnada
1.00
Ordino
0.92
Carroi
0.72
Esperança d'Andorra
0.65
Sporting Escaldes
0.00
Esperança d'Andorra is 1.18 points worse than FC Santa Coloma in terms of average points per game (0.65 vs 1.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.96
Ranger's
1.92
FC Santa Coloma
1.88
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.29
Casa de Portugal
1.16
Ordino
1.12
Penya Encarnada
0.79
Esperança d'Andorra
0.77
Carroi
0.60
Sporting Escaldes
0.50
Esperança d'Andorra is 1.11 goals worse than FC Santa Coloma in terms of goals scored per game (0.77 vs 1.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Santa Coloma
0.83
Ranger's
0.92
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.00
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.08
Casa de Portugal
1.44
Penya Encarnada
1.71
Ordino
1.75
Esperança d'Andorra
1.85
Carroi
2.20
Sporting Escaldes
2.50
Esperança d'Andorra is 1.01 goals worse than FC Santa Coloma in terms of goals conceded per game (1.85 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Esperança d'Andorra or Draw
40.6%
Avg Implied -
16%
25%
59%
covers Esperança d'Andorra + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra or FC Santa Coloma
75.0%
Avg Implied -
16%
25%
59%
covers Esperança d'Andorra + FC Santa Coloma
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Santa Coloma
84.4%
Avg Implied -
16%
25%
59%
covers Draw + FC Santa Coloma
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 0.5
Over
55.7%
Under
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 1.5
Over
19.7%
Under
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 2.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 0.5
Over
83.2%
Under
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 1.5
Over
53.3%
Under
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 2.5
Over
26.6%
Under
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 3.5
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Esperança d'Andorra, so a minus line means Esperança d'Andorra give that many goals of a start and FC Santa Coloma receive them. At -1, Esperança d'Andorra must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Esperança d'Andorra win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Esperança d'Andorra)
Esperança d'Andorra -2
1.2%
Draw -2
3.9%
FC Santa Coloma +2
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Esperança d'Andorra)
Esperança d'Andorra -1
5.1%
Draw -1
10.6%
FC Santa Coloma +1
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Esperança d'Andorra)
Esperança d'Andorra +1
40.6%
Draw +1
24.5%
FC Santa Coloma -1
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Esperança d'Andorra)
Esperança d'Andorra +2
65.1%
Draw +2
18.7%
FC Santa Coloma -2
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Esperança d'Andorra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.90
0.33
0.87
0.13
0.93
vs Stronger (17)
0.06
1.18
0.12
1.25
0.00
1.11
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.64
0.50
0.50
0.20
0.80
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Santa Coloma) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Santa Coloma
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.47
0.47
0.80
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.56
0.50
0.62
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (12)
0.58
0.08
0.50
0.17
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Esperança d'Andorra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Esperança d'Andorra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.10
0.33
0.73
0.67
1.47
vs Stronger (17)
0.35
1.47
0.12
1.12
0.56
1.78
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.73
0.50
0.33
0.80
1.20
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Santa Coloma) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Santa Coloma
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.73
1.33
0.87
1.00
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.88
0.88
1.12
0.75
0.62
vs Weaker (12)
1.75
0.42
2.00
0.17
1.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Esperança d'Andorra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (25)
€4m
RAN (24)
€4m
ACD (25)
€3m
FSC (28)
€3m
PE (26)
€3m
CAR (21)
€2m
ED (16)
€2m
ORD (22)
€2m
SE (1)
€0m
Esperança d'Andorra's squad is €1m less valuable than FC Santa Coloma's (€2m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (9)
€2m
FSC (10)
€2m
RAN (8)
€1m
ORD (6)
€1m
ED (6)
€1m
ACD (5)
€1m
PE (6)
€1m
CAR (4)
€0m
SE (1)
€0m
Esperança d'Andorra and FC Santa Coloma have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACD (8)
€1m
RAN (4)
€1m
CAR (7)
€1m
ICD (4)
€1m
PE (5)
€1m
FSC (5)
€1m
ED (2)
€0m
ORD (4)
€0m
SE (0)
€0m
Esperança d'Andorra and FC Santa Coloma have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (15)
€2m
RAN (12)
€2m
ACD (12)
€2m
ICD (12)
€2m
FSC (13)
€1m
CAR (10)
€1m
ED (8)
€1m
ORD (12)
€1m
SE (0)
€0m
Esperança d'Andorra and FC Santa Coloma have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Andorra: 1a Divisió 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Andorra: 1a Divisió stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Inter Club d'Escaldes
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
Sporting Escaldes
Penya Encarnada
Ranger's
Ordino
Carroi
Casa de Portugal