The model sees Inter Club d'Escaldes as the clear favourite, rating a 68 % chance of victory against Esperanços d'Andorra at home. The home side struggles at home against stronger opponents, scoring only 0.25 goals per match while conceding 2.38, whereas the away side thrives on the road, netting 2.0 goals and keeping just one. This mismatch, coupled with Inter’s recent 2-2 draw after a win, explains the high away win probability. The expected total is 3.1 goals, with the most likely total of three goals at 22 %. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2, a 11 % chance. Home win stands at 12 %, draw at 20 %, and away win at 68 %. The model’s selections include Home under 3.5 goals at 98.7 %, Under 7.5 at 98.5 %, Away +2 handicap at 95.9 %, Under 6.5 at 95.9 %, Home under 2.5 goals at 94.0 %, Under 5.5 at 90.1 %, Away over 0.5 goals at 89.6 %, and Draw or Away at 87.7 %. All figures are presented as percentages.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Esperança d'Andorra win
12.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes win
67.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Esperança d'Andorra
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.90
0.67
1.60
0.93
2.20
vs Stronger (17)
0.41
2.65
0.25
2.38
0.56
2.89
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.10
1.00
0.83
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.33
2.00
0.00
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Club d'Escaldes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter Club d'Escaldes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.03
1.88
0.62
2.00
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.73
1.27
1.43
0.57
2.00
1.88
vs Weaker (15)
2.13
0.80
2.22
0.67
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Esperança d'Andorra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.0%
Under 1.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.8%
Under 2.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.5%
Under 3.5
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.2%
No
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.1%
1-2
9.7%
1-1
9.5%
0-1
8.9%
0-3
8.4%
1-3
7.3%
0-0
5.2%
0-4
4.7%
Esperança d'Andorra goals ↓
Inter Club d'Escaldes goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.2%
8.9%
11%
8.4%
4.7%
1
2.9%
9.5%
9.7%
7.3%
4.2%
2
1.7%
3.8%
4.3%
3.2%
1.8%
3
0.5%
1.1%
1.3%
0.9%
0.5%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Esperança d'Andorra goals (down), columns = Inter Club d'Escaldes goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
2.25
Ranger's
2.00
FC Santa Coloma
1.83
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.42
Casa de Portugal
1.22
Penya Encarnada
1.00
Ordino
0.92
Carroi
0.72
Esperança d'Andorra
0.65
Sporting Escaldes
0.00
Esperança d'Andorra is 1.60 points worse than Inter Club d'Escaldes in terms of average points per game (0.65 vs 2.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.96
Ranger's
1.92
FC Santa Coloma
1.88
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.29
Casa de Portugal
1.16
Ordino
1.12
Penya Encarnada
0.79
Esperança d'Andorra
0.77
Carroi
0.60
Sporting Escaldes
0.50
Esperança d'Andorra is 1.19 goals worse than Inter Club d'Escaldes in terms of goals scored per game (0.77 vs 1.96).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Santa Coloma
0.83
Ranger's
0.92
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.00
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.08
Casa de Portugal
1.44
Penya Encarnada
1.71
Ordino
1.75
Esperança d'Andorra
1.85
Carroi
2.20
Sporting Escaldes
2.50
Esperança d'Andorra is 0.85 goals worse than Inter Club d'Escaldes in terms of goals conceded per game (1.85 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Esperança d'Andorra or Draw
32.2%
Avg Implied -
12%
20%
68%
covers Esperança d'Andorra + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra or Inter Club d'Escaldes
80.0%
Avg Implied -
12%
20%
68%
covers Esperança d'Andorra + Inter Club d'Escaldes
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Inter Club d'Escaldes
87.8%
Avg Implied -
12%
20%
68%
covers Draw + Inter Club d'Escaldes
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 0.5
Over
58.5%
Under
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 1.5
Over
22.0%
Under
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 2.5
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 0.5
Over
89.6%
Under
10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 1.5
Over
66.1%
Under
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 2.5
Over
39.4%
Under
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 3.5
Over
19.3%
Under
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Esperança d'Andorra, so a minus line means Esperança d'Andorra give that many goals of a start and Inter Club d'Escaldes receive them. At -1, Esperança d'Andorra must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Esperança d'Andorra win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Esperança d'Andorra)
Esperança d'Andorra -2
1.0%
Draw -2
3.1%
Inter Club d'Escaldes +2
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Esperança d'Andorra)
Esperança d'Andorra -1
4.1%
Draw -1
8.2%
Inter Club d'Escaldes +1
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Esperança d'Andorra)
Esperança d'Andorra +1
32.2%
Draw +1
22.4%
Inter Club d'Escaldes -1
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Esperança d'Andorra)
Esperança d'Andorra +2
54.7%
Draw +2
20.5%
Inter Club d'Escaldes -2
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Esperança d'Andorra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.90
0.33
0.87
0.13
0.93
vs Stronger (17)
0.06
1.18
0.12
1.25
0.00
1.11
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.64
0.50
0.50
0.20
0.80
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Club d'Escaldes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter Club d'Escaldes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.40
0.75
0.19
0.93
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.47
0.57
0.29
0.75
0.62
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.33
0.89
0.11
1.17
0.67
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Esperança d'Andorra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.8%
Under 0.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.5%
Under 1.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.1%
Under 2.5
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 0.5 HT
Over
25.0%
Under
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 1.5 HT
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 0.5 HT
Over
73.3%
Under
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 1.5 HT
Over
41.6%
Under
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 2.5 HT
Over
20.3%
Under
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Esperança d'Andorra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.10
0.33
0.73
0.67
1.47
vs Stronger (17)
0.35
1.47
0.12
1.12
0.56
1.78
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.73
0.50
0.33
0.80
1.20
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Club d'Escaldes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter Club d'Escaldes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.63
1.12
0.44
1.07
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.07
0.80
0.86
0.29
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (15)
1.13
0.47
1.33
0.56
0.83
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Esperança d'Andorra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
84.8%
Under 0.5
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
56.1%
Under 1.5
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
28.8%
Under 2.5
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 0.5 2H
Over
31.2%
Under
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 1.5 2H
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 0.5 2H
Over
75.6%
Under
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 1.5 2H
Over
42.7%
Under
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 2.5 2H
Over
24.6%
Under
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 2H goals
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 0.5 HT goals
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 HT goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (25)
€4m
RAN (24)
€4m
ACD (25)
€3m
FSC (28)
€3m
PE (26)
€3m
CAR (21)
€2m
ED (16)
€2m
ORD (22)
€2m
SE (1)
€0m
Esperança d'Andorra's squad is €2m less valuable than Inter Club d'Escaldes's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (9)
€2m
FSC (10)
€2m
RAN (8)
€1m
ORD (6)
€1m
ED (6)
€1m
ACD (5)
€1m
PE (6)
€1m
CAR (4)
€0m
SE (1)
€0m
Esperança d'Andorra's attack is €1m less valuable than Inter Club d'Escaldes's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACD (8)
€1m
RAN (4)
€1m
CAR (7)
€1m
ICD (4)
€1m
PE (5)
€1m
FSC (5)
€1m
ED (2)
€0m
ORD (4)
€0m
SE (0)
€0m
Esperança d'Andorra and Inter Club d'Escaldes have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (15)
€2m
RAN (12)
€2m
ACD (12)
€2m
ICD (12)
€2m
FSC (13)
€1m
CAR (10)
€1m
ED (8)
€1m
ORD (12)
€1m
SE (0)
€0m
Esperança d'Andorra and Inter Club d'Escaldes have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Andorra: 1a Divisió 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Andorra: 1a Divisió stats & trends →